Ukraine’s foreign intelligence service has warned that Russia is likely to stage a false flag attack either inside its own territory or in Ukrainian regions under Russian occupation, in an attempt to derail ongoing peace efforts mediated by U.S. President Donald Trump.
In a statement released on Friday, Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SZRU) said it had observed signs of a mounting Kremlin disinformation campaign that could soon escalate into a violent provocation with mass casualties. The warning comes amid fragile diplomatic contacts aimed at exploring a potential ceasefire or broader settlement to the nearly three-year-old war.
“We predict with high probability a transition from manipulative influence to the [Russian Federation] special services’ armed provocation, resulting in significant human casualties,” the intelligence service said.
According to the statement, Ukrainian intelligence believes the Kremlin may be preparing to stage an attack on a location of high symbolic value, such as a religious site, in the days leading up to Russian Orthodox Christmas on January 7. The alleged aim would be to shock public opinion, inflame nationalist sentiment inside Russia, and accuse Kyiv of terrorism, thereby undermining peace talks.
“The location of the provocation may be a religious building or other object of high symbolic significance both in [Russia] and in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine,” the agency warned.
Kyiv has already accused Moscow of spreading false claims about an alleged Ukrainian drone attack targeting the residence of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Ukrainian officials say that accusation was fabricated to cast doubt on Kyiv’s intentions and disrupt diplomatic momentum encouraged by Washington.
The latest warning suggests Russia could go further by staging a high-casualty incident and attempting to blame Ukraine using physical evidence planted at the scene. The intelligence service claimed that Russian operatives may deploy Western-made drones, allegedly brought from the battlefield, to support the narrative that Ukraine — and by extension its Western allies — were responsible.
Such tactics, the agency said, align with a long-standing pattern of Russian security service operations. “Such operations are consistent with the modus operandi of Russian special services,” the statement read. “Putin’s regime has repeatedly used this tactic within the [Russian Federation], and now this same model is being exported abroad.”
Ukrainian officials have long accused Moscow of using deception, provocation, and information warfare as core elements of its military and political strategy, both domestically and internationally. The warning also reflects Kyiv’s concern that Russia may seek to exploit sensitive religious dates to maximize emotional impact and political leverage.
The intelligence service explicitly referenced the 1999 apartment bombings in Moscow, Buynaksk, and Volgodonsk as a historical precedent. Those attacks killed more than 300 people and injured over 1,000, and were officially blamed on Chechen militants. The bombings were used by the Kremlin to justify launching the second Chechen war and significantly boosted Vladimir Putin’s popularity ahead of national elections.
While Russian authorities have consistently denied any state involvement in those attacks, critics and independent investigators have long questioned the official narrative, pointing to alleged links between the bombings and Russia’s security services.
The current warning comes at a sensitive moment in the war, as battlefield dynamics remain fluid and diplomatic channels are under renewed scrutiny. President Trump has positioned himself as a potential broker of peace, urging both sides to consider negotiations, though neither Moscow nor Kyiv has publicly committed to substantive concessions.
Ukrainian officials say Russia has a strong incentive to sabotage talks that could limit its military objectives or expose internal divisions. By portraying Ukraine as a terrorist threat, they argue, the Kremlin could justify continued escalation and harden domestic support for the war.
Russia has not commented on the Ukrainian intelligence allegations. In the past, the Kremlin has dismissed similar claims as “provocations” or “information warfare” by Kyiv.
As Orthodox Christmas approaches, Ukrainian authorities say they are sharing intelligence with international partners and urging vigilance, warning that any dramatic incident should be carefully scrutinized before assigning blame.
