A preliminary agreement between the United States and Iran aimed at ending months of conflict has raised hopes of restoring stability to the Middle East and reopening one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints. However, despite public announcements from both governments, a U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports remains in effect and is expected to continue until a formal memorandum of understanding is signed later this week, according to a source familiar with ongoing military operations.
The source, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of operational matters, said Monday that the blockade would remain active until Friday, when the two sides are expected to formally sign the agreement.
“The blockade is ongoing and is expected to remain in place until the signing of the memorandum of understanding on Friday,” the source said.
The official declined to specify how U.S. forces would respond to vessels attempting to enter Iranian ports before the agreement is finalized, leaving unanswered questions about whether ships would be turned away or potentially face military action.
The continued blockade highlights the gap between political announcements and operational realities as Washington and Tehran work to implement what could become the most significant diplomatic breakthrough since the conflict began earlier this year.
A central component of the emerging agreement is the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s seaborne oil trade normally passes.
Iran largely closed the strategic waterway to commercial shipping after coming under attack from U.S. and Israeli forces on Feb. 28. The resulting disruption sent shockwaves through global energy markets, contributed to rising fuel prices, and intensified concerns about the stability of international supply chains.
Although both governments have announced plans to restore maritime traffic, the process remains incomplete.
President Donald Trump stated Monday that the strait had already been partially reopened and that commercial shipping had begun moving through designated corridors.
“Ships are starting to move, many loaded up with Oil, out of the Strait of Hormuz,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. He added that vessels were traveling along a southern maritime route that he described as “totally safe, secure, and pristine.”
Speaking later at a press conference in France, Trump reiterated that shipping activity had resumed and predicted that the waterway would be fully operational by Friday.
“Ships are starting to go out now,” the president said. “By Friday it will completely opened.”
The comments reflect progress in efforts to restore navigation, but traffic remains far below pre-war levels.
For weeks, vessels have transited the strait along a southern route near the coasts of Oman and the United Arab Emirates under close U.S. military supervision. Trump previously disclosed the existence of a confidential operation designed to move hundreds of stranded vessels out of the Gulf region, though maritime analysts note that overall shipping volumes remain significantly reduced.
Despite apparent progress, differences remain between American and Iranian interpretations of key provisions.
Iranian officials have publicly stated that they believe the U.S. naval blockade should be lifted immediately.
In a statement released early Monday, Iran’s Supreme National Security Council declared that military operations across multiple fronts would end immediately and permanently.
“Furthermore, the naval blockade against Iran will be lifted immediately and completely,” the council said.
The statement contrasted sharply with information provided by the U.S. source familiar with operations, suggesting that implementation timelines may remain a point of contention.
Questions have also emerged regarding future management of the Strait of Hormuz.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said Monday that Iran and Oman would oversee navigation through the waterway under the terms of the memorandum of understanding.
“According to the MoU, Iran and Oman will be responsible for managing passage through the Strait of Hormuz,” Baghaei said.
Although Tehran is not formally describing future charges as tolls, Baghaei indicated that vessels would still be required to pay fees associated with navigation assistance, environmental protection, insurance arrangements, and other maritime services.
That position appears to conflict with Trump’s assertion that the strait would eventually become permanently toll-free.
Speaking to The New York Times on Sunday, the president said the agreement would ensure unrestricted passage through the strategic waterway. The differing public statements underscore unresolved issues that negotiators must still address before a final accord can be reached.
While the ceasefire framework has generated optimism, many of its most consequential provisions remain undefined.
Vice President JD Vance acknowledged Monday that substantial negotiations still lie ahead.
Appearing on CNBC’s “Squawk Box,” Vance described Sunday’s understanding as a preliminary arrangement rather than a completed settlement.
“There are a lot of details” still to be negotiated, he said, while expressing confidence that the United States would maintain leverage during future discussions.
According to Vance, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf are expected to participate in upcoming talks.
Observers view Ghalibaf’s involvement as particularly significant because he is widely regarded as a hard-line figure within Iran’s political establishment. His participation may signal broader support among conservative factions for the emerging agreement.
According to reports, the preliminary arrangement would extend the current ceasefire for 60 days while providing a framework for negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program and other security issues.
However, the full text of the agreement has not yet been released.
Negotiators reportedly face the difficult task of reaching a technical arrangement governing Iran’s highly enriched uranium stockpiles. Under the proposed framework, both sides have 60 days to determine how Iran’s enriched uranium would be down-blended, frozen, monitored, or otherwise controlled.
Experts note that these discussions could prove substantially more difficult than negotiating the memorandum of understanding itself.
The United States reportedly intends to use sanctions relief and access to frozen Iranian assets as incentives for Tehran to reach a comprehensive nuclear agreement.
At the same time, critics in both Washington and Jerusalem have expressed concern that the war could end without fully resolving questions surrounding Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
Another unresolved issue concerns the future American military posture in the region.
Since January, the United States has deployed substantial naval, air, and ground forces to support operations in the Middle East. As hostilities subside, military planners will face decisions about how quickly those assets should be withdrawn.
Many ships, aircraft, and personnel currently assigned to U.S. Central Command are expected to begin redeploying in the coming weeks. However, it remains unclear what level of military presence Washington intends to maintain if negotiations continue through the summer.
Trump has emphasized that future military action remains possible if negotiations collapse.
The president warned that renewed attacks could occur if Iran fails to reach a final nuclear agreement. Such statements have reinforced concerns among analysts that the current ceasefire, while promising, remains fragile.
Political considerations may also influence future decisions.
The conflict has generated significant economic disruption worldwide, while public support for continued military operations has reportedly weakened domestically. With congressional midterm elections approaching in November, the administration faces increasing pressure to deliver a durable diplomatic outcome.
Despite the apparent breakthrough, major shipping companies say they are not yet ready to resume normal operations.
Industry leaders are waiting for more information regarding security conditions, mine-clearing efforts, and implementation of the agreement before changing existing policies.
A spokesperson for Maersk described the announcement as encouraging but emphasized that operational decisions would require additional clarity.
“The announced agreement is a welcome and positive development, but publicly available details are still limited, and it is too early to assess how it will impact logistics and maritime operations in the Middle East,” the company said.
Maersk confirmed that no immediate changes to regional operations had been made.
German shipping giant Hapag-Lloyd expressed a similar position.
“The latest developments give reason to hope that the security situation in the Strait of Hormuz will improve,” a company spokesperson said. “At this stage, our risk assessment remains unchanged and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for Hapag-Lloyd transits until further notice.”
The company emphasized that crew safety and cargo security remain its highest priorities.
The United Nations’ International Maritime Organization (IMO) has likewise refrained from issuing new operational guidance until additional details become available.
According to the organization, officials are working closely with Oman, Iran, and other coastal states to facilitate the safe movement of trapped vessels and restore commercial trade.
The IMO said it continues to assess navigational hazards, including sea mines and potential congestion that could create new safety risks as traffic resumes.
Maritime security specialists caution that reopening the strait will not be as simple as announcing a ceasefire.
Joshua Hutchinson, Managing Director of Risk and Intelligence at Ambrey and a former Royal Marine commando, said implementation will require extensive coordination among multiple governments and industry stakeholders.
“The proposed deal still requires meaningful implementation across multiple governments, which will take time,” Hutchinson said.
He noted that more than 1,000 vessels remain within the Persian Gulf region and that mine threats continue to pose serious challenges.
According to Hutchinson, safely moving such a large concentration of ships through the waterway could take months.
He also highlighted concerns regarding reports that Iranian authorities may retain significant control over vessel clearances in the Strait of Hormuz.
For shipping companies and insurers, understanding how any future clearance system would operate remains a major concern.
Even as U.S.-Iran negotiations advance, tensions elsewhere in the region threaten to complicate implementation.
Israeli officials have stated that military operations against Hezbollah will continue and that Israeli forces do not intend to withdraw from southern Lebanon.
Regional sources indicate that an Israeli airstrike against a Hezbollah target in Beirut on Sunday nearly disrupted the announcement of the memorandum of understanding.
Reports suggest that an Iranian retaliatory missile strike was considered but ultimately canceled at the last moment, preventing a potential escalation.
The episode served as a reminder that numerous flashpoints remain active despite the ceasefire framework.
For now, diplomats, military planners, shipping executives, and global markets are closely watching developments ahead of Friday’s anticipated signing ceremony.
While the preliminary agreement represents the most significant diplomatic achievement since the conflict began, major uncertainties remain. The blockade is still in place, the Strait of Hormuz has not fully reopened, nuclear negotiations are only beginning, and regional tensions continue to simmer.
