Russian President Vladimir Putin has said it would be “logical” for Armenia to hold a referendum on joining the European Union, signaling Moscow’s growing unease over Yerevan’s rapid geopolitical pivot toward the West after hosting a major European summit for the first time.
Speaking at a press conference following Armenia’s hosting of the 8th European Political Community (EPC) summit in Yerevan from May 4–6, Putin said Armenian citizens should decide whether they want deeper integration with Europe.
“It would be quite logical to hold a referendum and ask the Armenian citizens what their choice would be,” Putin said. “Based on that, we would make our own choice as well.”
The Russian leader added that such a process could lead to a “gentle, civilized, and mutually beneficial separation,” a remark widely interpreted as an acknowledgment that Moscow risks losing one of its closest traditional allies in the South Caucasus.
Putin also linked Armenia’s European aspirations to the origins of the war in Ukraine.
“We are all going through everything that’s happening in the Ukrainian direction right now. But how did it all start? With Ukraine’s attempt to join the EU,” he said, drawing a controversial parallel between Yerevan’s westward drift and Kyiv’s trajectory before the 2014 crisis.
The comments came after Armenia hosted dozens of European leaders at the EPC summit, an event that marked a symbolic turning point in the country’s foreign policy orientation. Armenian officials used the summit to intensify diplomatic engagement with the European Union and reinforce efforts to reduce the country’s long-standing dependence on Russia for security and economic support.
For decades following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Armenia remained one of Moscow’s most loyal regional partners. The landlocked South Caucasus republic hosted Russian military bases, joined the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), and acted as a strategic corridor linking Russia with Iran.
However, relations between Moscow and Yerevan have deteriorated sharply in recent years, particularly after Russia failed to intervene decisively during Armenia’s conflicts with neighboring Azerbaijan.
Armenia formally froze its participation in the CSTO in 2024, accusing the alliance of failing to fulfill its obligations during clashes with Azerbaijan. Under Article 4 of the CSTO treaty, member states are expected to provide military assistance in the event of external aggression, similar to NATO’s Article 5 collective defense principle.
Despite that framework, Russia did not intervene militarily during Armenia’s two recent wars with Azerbaijan, including the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and the 2023 Azerbaijani offensive that resulted in Armenia losing control of the historically Armenian-populated enclave.
The loss of Nagorno-Karabakh represented a devastating strategic and psychological blow for Armenia and triggered widespread public disillusionment with Russia.
Opinion surveys reflected the shift. According to polling by the International Republican Institute, Armenian perceptions of Russia deteriorated dramatically between 2019 and 2023. During that period, the percentage of Armenians describing relations with Russia as “good” reportedly fell from 93 percent to 31 percent.
At the same time, France emerged as Armenia’s most trusted political partner in public opinion surveys, while the United States also gained influence.
French President Emmanuel Macron used the EPC summit to deepen Paris’ strategic engagement with Armenia. Macron’s two-day visit underscored France’s ambition to establish itself as a key diplomatic and security partner for Yerevan as Russian influence recedes.
France and Armenia signed a joint declaration establishing a strategic partnership and expanded defense cooperation agreements during the summit. The two countries also signed a memorandum of understanding covering military research, development, and advanced defense technologies.
Armenia’s defense ministry additionally concluded agreements with French defense firms, including Sofema and Airbus Helicopters. According to Armenian media reports, the helicopter agreement includes six Airbus H145 multi-purpose transport helicopters.
France has already become Armenia’s leading arms supplier in recent years, delivering CAESAR self-propelled howitzers, GM200 radar systems, and Bastion armored personnel carriers.
Macron also openly questioned the continued necessity of Russia’s military presence in Armenia.
“There are still 4,000 Russian soldiers on Armenian territory, including over 1,000 border guards,” Macron said during the visit. “Europe must therefore commit to helping the country secure its borders more independently.”
Russian forces are stationed in Armenia under a bilateral agreement governing the 102nd Russian military base in Gyumri, which was originally established in 1995 and later extended until 2044.
Macron’s comments reflected broader European efforts to support Armenia’s strategic diversification. The European Union and Armenia used the summit to strengthen cooperation on transport, energy, and digital connectivity projects linking Europe with Central Asia and the Caspian region.
One major focus is the Trans-Caspian corridor, a trade and transport route intended to reduce European dependence on Russian transit infrastructure.
The geopolitical importance of Armenia has consequently risen significantly. Situated at the crossroads of Europe, West Asia, Russia, Central Asia, and South Asia, Armenia occupies a critical position in emerging connectivity initiatives.
The country also plays a role in the India-backed International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), which aims to connect India with Europe through Iran, the Caucasus, and Russia.
This strategic geography has attracted growing interest not only from Europe but also from India, which has rapidly emerged as another major defense partner for Armenia.
After France, India is now Armenia’s second-largest arms supplier. In fact, Armenia has become India’s single biggest foreign defense customer.
Over the past several years, Armenia has purchased a wide range of Indian weapons systems, including Pinaka multi-barrel rocket launchers, Akash-1S air defense systems, ATAGS 155mm howitzers, Swathi counter-battery radars, and MArG truck-mounted artillery systems.
Armenia is also reportedly considering future acquisitions of India’s Akash-NG missile system and Astra Mk2 air-to-air missiles. Discussions have additionally taken place regarding upgrades for Armenia’s Su-30 fighter fleet based on India’s Su-30MKI configuration.
According to defense industry estimates, Armenia imported approximately $2 billion worth of Indian military equipment during the 2025–26 period alone, helping propel India into the ranks of the world’s top 25 arms exporters.
Indian systems now reportedly form a central pillar of Armenia’s artillery, air defense, and counter-battery capabilities.
The scale of Armenia’s military diversification is striking given that, only a decade ago, Russia supplied roughly 90 percent of Armenian arms imports. Today, Russia’s share has reportedly fallen below 10 percent.
Armenia has simultaneously expanded cooperation with Western institutions. Yerevan accepted a European Union civilian border-monitoring mission, rejecting a competing Russian proposal. The EU mission, numbering around 200 personnel, represents the first EU Common Security and Defense Policy deployment inside a country traditionally aligned with Russia.
Armenia has also ratified the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court, theoretically obligating the country to arrest Putin should he visit Armenian territory because of the ICC warrant issued against him.
In addition, Armenia hosted joint military exercises with U.S. special forces in 2023, another move that angered Moscow.
The European Parliament further encouraged Armenia’s European ambitions in March 2024 by welcoming Yerevan’s application for EU candidate status.
While full EU membership remains a distant and uncertain prospect, Armenia’s political trajectory appears increasingly oriented toward Europe and broader Western partnerships.
For Moscow, the shift represents a major geopolitical setback in the South Caucasus, a region historically regarded as part of Russia’s strategic sphere of influence.
As Armenia hosted its first-ever EPC summit and welcomed Macron for a high-profile state visit, the symbolism was unmistakable. Yerevan is no longer willing to rely exclusively on Russia for its security or economic future.
Instead, a new alignment involving the European Union, France, India, and increasingly the United States is taking shape around Armenia.
The transformation could significantly alter the balance of power across the South Caucasus, with implications extending far beyond the region itself.
For Russia, Armenia’s gradual drift westward may represent not merely a diplomatic loss, but the unraveling of one of Moscow’s last remaining strongholds in the post-Soviet space.
