The announcement of the AUKUS pact in September 2021 marked a significant shift in Australia’s strategic alignment. The decision to acquire eight nuclear-powered submarines, built locally in partnership with the United States and the United Kingdom, was touted as a move to enhance Australia’s military capabilities amid rising tensions in the Indo-Pacific region. However, the projected cost of up to A$368 billion has raised concerns, not just about the financial burden but also the broader implications for Australia’s sovereignty and foreign policy independence.
Fowler’s book is a meticulous examination of the origins and consequences of the AUKUS deal, which he argues is not just the “worst deal in all history,” as former Labor luminary Paul Keating put it, but also a catastrophic misstep in Australia’s foreign policy. The decision to abandon a previous agreement with France to purchase conventional submarines in favor of the AUKUS deal is portrayed as a blunder of historic proportions.
Central to Fowler’s critique is the role of former Prime Minister Scott Morrison, whom he describes as the principal architect of this monumental folly. Morrison, a Christian fundamentalist with no formal training in strategic or foreign affairs, is depicted as a leader driven more by secrecy and deception than by sound strategic thinking. His decision to cancel the French submarine contract and pivot towards AUKUS was, according to Fowler, a move designed to “weld Australia’s military to the United States” at the expense of Australia’s independence.
The French were not just misled but humiliated by the abrupt cancellation of the deal, which had been years in the making. Fowler suggests that the French submarines would have been a far more suitable and deliverable option, providing Australia with greater independence and a more influential position on the global stage. Instead, the shift to AUKUS is seen as a capitulation to US strategic interests, undermining Australia’s sovereignty and placing it at the mercy of Washington’s decisions.
One of the most damning aspects of Fowler’s analysis is his indictment of the quality of political leadership in Australia. The AUKUS agreement, he argues, is not just a failure of strategic judgment but a reflection of the broader decline in the standards of governance and accountability in the country. The decision to embrace AUKUS, taken after what Fowler describes as a “deeply flawed process,” was driven by short-term political considerations rather than long-term national interests.
The Labor Party, which has traditionally positioned itself as a defender of Australia’s independence in foreign policy, is also heavily criticized for its role in the AUKUS saga. Rather than challenging the Morrison government’s decision, the Labor leadership, fearful of being painted as “weak” on national security, has enthusiastically embraced the AUKUS deal. Fowler argues that this was a missed opportunity for Labor to distinguish itself as a party of principle, willing to put the country’s long-term interests ahead of political expediency.
Beyond the immediate political fallout, Fowler’s book raises serious questions about the strategic and economic implications of the AUKUS pact. The acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines is presented as a high-risk venture, fraught with uncertainties and potential pitfalls. The cost overruns and delays that have plagued previous defense acquisitions in Australia are likely to be replicated on an even larger scale with AUKUS.
Moreover, the strategic rationale for AUKUS is called into question. Fowler points out that Australia’s security did not suffer during the four years when the ageing Collins class submarines were unavailable, suggesting that the country may not need new submarines at all. The commitment to AUKUS, he argues, is based on an exaggerated perception of threats and a misguided belief that Australia’s security depends on its alignment with the United States.
Fowler also highlights the potential risks of AUKUS in terms of Australia’s relationship with China, its largest trading partner. The deal is likely to exacerbate tensions with Beijing, increasing the likelihood of Australia being drawn into a conflict in the Indo-Pacific, particularly over Taiwan. The strategic benefits of AUKUS are thus far from clear, and the costs – both financial and political – are likely to be immense.
Another significant aspect of Fowler’s critique is his examination of the role of the defense industry in the AUKUS deal. The book details the close ties between the Morrison government and defense contractors, many of whom stand to benefit from the massive spending on nuclear submarines. Fowler describes a “revolving door” between government and business, with former ministers and advisors moving seamlessly into lucrative positions in the defense industry after leaving office.
This cozy relationship between government and business is presented as a key factor in the decision to pursue AUKUS. Fowler argues that the interests of defense contractors have been placed ahead of the national interest, leading to a situation where Australia’s foreign policy is increasingly driven by the demands of the defense industry rather than by sound strategic thinking.
Perhaps the most concerning aspect of the AUKUS deal, as outlined in Fowler’s book, is its impact on Australia’s sovereignty and independence. By tying itself so closely to the United States and the United Kingdom, Australia is effectively ceding control over its own defense policy. The United States, in particular, will have significant influence over the type of submarines Australia acquires, when they are delivered, and how they are used.
Fowler suggests that this loss of sovereignty is a direct consequence of the Morrison government’s failure to prioritize Australia’s national interests. Instead of pursuing a more independent foreign policy, Australia is becoming increasingly reliant on the United States, a situation that is likely to undermine its position in the region and make it more vulnerable to external pressures.
The broader implications of AUKUS for Australia’s national security are also a major focus of Fowler’s book. He argues that the deal will not enhance Australia’s security but rather increase the risks the country faces. The acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines is likely to make Australia a target in any future conflict involving the United States, particularly in the Indo-Pacific.
Moreover, the focus on acquiring expensive, high-tech military capabilities like nuclear submarines may divert resources away from more immediate and pressing threats to Australia’s security, such as climate change and environmental degradation. Fowler suggests that the obsession with military hardware is a reflection of a narrow and outdated view of national security, one that fails to address the real challenges facing Australia in the 21st century.
One of the most remarkable features of the AUKUS saga, as highlighted by Fowler, is the lack of public debate on the issue. Despite the enormous costs and significant risks associated with the deal, there has been little informed discussion or opposition. This, Fowler suggests, is partly due to the complex and technical nature of the issues involved, which may seem incomprehensible to the average citizen.
However, it is also a reflection of the failure of Australia’s political and media elites to engage with the public on the implications of AUKUS. The lack of transparency and accountability in the decision-making process has meant that the public has been largely kept in the dark about the true costs and risks of the deal. Fowler argues that this is a serious failure of governance and a betrayal of the public trust.
As Fowler notes, the future of the AUKUS deal is far from certain. The technical challenges of building nuclear-powered submarines are immense, and there is a real possibility that the project could face significant delays or even outright failure. The political and economic uncertainties surrounding the deal also add to the risks.
Moreover, the changing dynamics of US politics, with its increasingly unpredictable and polarized nature, could have significant implications for the AUKUS pact. The deal is heavily dependent on the United States, and any shifts in US foreign policy could leave Australia exposed and vulnerable.
Fowler’s conclusion is a sobering one. He suggests that the AUKUS deal is a reflection of a broader malaise in Australian politics, where short-term political considerations and the interests of powerful lobbies are placed ahead of the national interest. The decision to pursue AUKUS, he argues, is a tragic misstep that will have long-term consequences for Australia’s sovereignty, security, and place in the world.
“Nuked: The Submarine Fiasco that Sank Australia’s Sovereignty” is a powerful and compelling critique of the AUKUS deal and the political dynamics that led to its creation. Andrew Fowler’s meticulously researched account offers a sobering analysis of the risks and costs associated with the deal and raises important questions about the future direction of Australia’s foreign policy.
The book is a cautionary tale for Australia’s political leaders and citizens alike. It serves as a reminder of the importance of independent and principled decision-making in foreign policy and the dangers of allowing short-term political considerations to override the long-term national interest. As Australia navigates the complex and uncertain waters of the 21st century, the lessons of AUKUS must not be forgotten.
