A retired British Rear Admiral has raised serious doubts over the United Kingdom’s ability to deliver nuclear-powered submarines to Australia under the AUKUS defence pact, warning that the program faces a “high probability” of failure.
Under AUKUS, Australia aims to acquire between three and five Virginia-class submarines from the United States in the early 2030s. Following this initial acquisition, the UK and Australia plan to co-design and build a new generation of attack submarines, known as SSN-AUKUS, in facilities located in both countries.
The pact, signed in 2021, was agreed by then-US President Joe Biden, former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, and former Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison. It represented a landmark strategic shift in Indo-Pacific security cooperation but also immediately raised questions about industrial capacity and expertise.
Australia has no experience building nuclear-powered submarines, and the UK’s primary contractor, BAE Systems, has a lengthy track record for producing its Royal Navy Astute-class submarines. Current construction times for Astute-class vessels are around a decade or longer, making it uncertain whether the UK can scale up production to meet AUKUS targets.
Retired Rear Admiral Philip Mathias, a former director of nuclear policy and a nuclear submarine commanding officer, told The Nightly that AUKUS was largely driven by political enthusiasm rather than an informed assessment of industrial reality.
“Policy and money don’t build nuclear submarines — people do that, and there are not enough of them with the right level of skills and experience,” he said.
He added that while the United States may eventually sell some Virginia-class submarines to Australia, “there is a high probability that the UK element of AUKUS will fail, making the 2021 international row over Australia’s cancellation of the French-designed submarine plan look like a non-event.”
Australia has already committed significant funds to the program. The country provided the United States with an initial downpayment of $1.6 billion for the promised Virginia-class submarines. The deal has received support from US President Donald Trump, despite early uncertainty over whether his administration would honor the Biden-era agreement.
Australia has also paid the UK $4.6 billion to expand the Rolls-Royce site in Derby, where nuclear reactors for the submarines are manufactured. This facility expansion is a critical component of Australia’s plan to build its own fleet onshore.
Despite these financial commitments, Defence Minister Richard Marles has previously declined to specify whether Australia would be refunded if either the UK or US fail to deliver on their promises.
Rear Admiral Mathias warned that announcements and international visits around AUKUS have not been accompanied by meaningful expansion of the industrial base necessary to deliver the submarines.
“Britain’s nuclear submarine fleet is in ‘DEEP’ trouble and cannot provide Australia with the support it needs,” he said.
He emphasized that the UK faces challenges across all areas of submarine production and maintenance, with little hope for improvement in the near term. “History and current performance indicate that this is highly unlikely. Performance across all aspects of the program continues to get worse in every dimension,” he said.
Mathias also highlighted personnel shortages as a critical problem. “Even if the industrial base can eventually provide sufficient operational boats, the Royal Navy faces an almost insurmountable challenge in recruiting and retaining enough submariners to grow the technical and operational leadership necessary to safely operate these highly complex and multibillion-dollar platforms.”
Australia’s former submarines commander, retired Rear Admiral Peter Briggs, has been a vocal skeptic of AUKUS since its announcement. He stressed that the slow pace of US submarine production, even under orders from President Trump to accelerate deliveries, means that Australia may never receive the Virginia-class submarines as planned.
Briggs also supported Mathias’ assessment of the UK’s industrial capacity. “It has fallen below critical mass and is struggling to sustain even the single ballistic missile submarine on patrol,” he said.
He added that the UK currently lacks sufficient personnel and maintenance capacity to operate the five Astute-class submarines in service. “None are at sea, and none have been at sea for some months,” Briggs said. “We are pouring scarce defence dollars into two black holes.”
The UK government has outlined plans to expand its current fleet of seven Astute-class attack submarines to 12 AUKUS submarines by the late 2030s. However, these additions are intended solely for the Royal Navy and will not be available for delivery to Australia.
The government has set a goal of building a new submarine every 18 months by an unspecified date in the future. Under current plans, the UK will also provide nuclear reactors for Australia’s SSN-AUKUS fleet, which Australia intends to assemble domestically.
An Australian Submarine Agency spokesperson defended the program, emphasizing its strategic importance and acknowledging its ambitious nature.
“Through AUKUS, Australia’s acquisition of conventionally-armed, nuclear-powered submarines will strengthen Australia as a security partner in the region and enhance our ability to respond to a changing strategic environment,” the spokesperson said.
The agency stated that the government has been clear about the challenges involved since the announcement of the Optimal Pathway in 2023. “Working closely with our partners, we are meeting key milestones and AUKUS remains full steam ahead,” the statement said.
“Each AUKUS partner is investing significantly in their industrial bases to meet commitments on time. Australia is also making a fair and proportionate contribution to strengthening the industrial bases of the United Kingdom and the United States.”
The AUKUS pact has been widely seen as a strategic move to strengthen the security of the Indo-Pacific region in response to increasing Chinese military activity. Nuclear-powered submarines offer far greater range, endurance, and stealth capabilities compared to conventional vessels, giving Australia a potential strategic advantage in regional waters.
However, analysts warn that industrial and personnel limitations in the UK and US could delay or derail the delivery schedule, potentially undermining the credibility of the program and leaving Australia with an expensive capability gap.
“Strategically, Australia is placing a significant bet on partners that may not be able to deliver the goods,” Rear Admiral Mathias said. “The risks are not just technical or industrial — they are also operational, financial, and political.”
As AUKUS moves forward, the program faces a complex web of industrial, personnel, and geopolitical challenges. While Australia has committed billions of dollars to the initiative and the United States appears ready to accelerate submarine production, the UK’s current capacity to support the project remains deeply uncertain.
Retired officials warn that without substantial investment in both infrastructure and personnel, the ambitious timelines of AUKUS are unlikely to be met. Meanwhile, Australia continues to push ahead with the program, framing it as a vital step toward regional security, even as questions mount over whether the UK and US can deliver on their promises.
With billions already spent and delivery timelines stretching into the 2030s, the stakes are high — and failure could have far-reaching consequences for regional security, domestic politics, and the reputations of the governments involved.
