Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko vehemently denied reports that North Korean troops are being deployed to support Russia’s ongoing offensive in Ukraine, dismissing the claims as “rubbish.” However, he acknowledged that if any foreign armed forces were to get involved in the conflict, it would represent a significant escalation, underscoring the heightened international tensions surrounding the war in Ukraine.

Lukashenko’s remarks come at a time when Western intelligence agencies, particularly the United States and NATO, have suggested that North Korea is already providing military support to Russia. These claims have sparked concerns over the potential for an internationalization of the conflict and further involvement of foreign nations in a war that has already claimed thousands of lives and devastated large parts of Ukraine. The Belarusian leader’s comments highlight his complex relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin and underscore the delicate geopolitical balance of power in the region.

Lukashenko Dismisses Reports of North Korean Involvement

During the interview, Lukashenko was unequivocal in dismissing the allegations of North Korean involvement in Ukraine. He labeled the idea that North Korean troops had been sent to bolster Russia’s offensive as “rubbish,” aiming to downplay speculation that one of the most repressive regimes in the world had joined Russia’s war effort.

The denial comes after several media reports suggested that North Korea was preparing to send military personnel to Ukraine to assist Russia, which has struggled with manpower issues and a slowing advance in the eastern regions of Ukraine. Both U.S. and NATO officials have stated they have intelligence pointing to North Korean troops already being deployed in Russia, though they have not provided concrete public evidence to back these claims.

For Lukashenko, who is known to be a staunch ally of Putin and has helped facilitate Russian military operations during the war, outright denial of such rumors is in line with his previous rhetoric. He has consistently tried to portray Belarus as being supportive of Russia but reluctant to involve its own forces directly in the conflict, walking a fine line between backing Moscow and keeping Belarus out of direct combat.

Lukashenko, while dismissing the claims, did not shy away from recognizing the gravity of the situation should foreign troops join the fray. He said it would be a “step towards the escalation of the conflict if the armed forces of any country, even Belarus, were on the contact line.”

This acknowledgment illustrates that any formal involvement of outside forces would elevate the conflict from a regional war between Russia and Ukraine to one involving multiple international actors, potentially drawing in NATO members and other global powers. The specter of foreign military involvement is one of the primary concerns for Western leaders, as it could further destabilize an already volatile situation and lead to a much larger confrontation with global repercussions.

Lukashenko’s reference to Belarusian troops in this context also raised concerns about his own country’s potential role in the war. Though Belarus has not officially sent troops to fight alongside Russian forces, its military infrastructure and territory have been used as staging grounds for Russian operations, including the initial phase of the invasion in early 2022. The fear remains that Belarus could be drawn deeper into the conflict, especially given its close military ties with Russia.

While Belarus has thus far avoided directly deploying its own military forces to Ukraine, its involvement in the conflict is significant. The country has provided logistical and operational support to Russia from the beginning of the invasion. In February 2022, Russian forces launched a portion of their attack on Kyiv from Belarusian territory, utilizing Belarus as a staging ground for the offensive.

Moreover, in June 2023, Russia moved tactical nuclear weapons into Belarus, further entrenching the country in its military strategy and positioning it as a key component of Moscow’s broader strategic ambitions. The deployment of nuclear weapons on Belarusian soil marked a significant step in the countries’ military cooperation and signaled Russia’s intention to use its neighbor as a critical outpost in its ongoing conflict with the West.

Despite these developments, Lukashenko has been careful to distance Belarus from direct military engagement in Ukraine. He has repeatedly stated that Belarus has no intention of sending its troops to the front lines unless it is provoked. “We have no plans to attack anyone,” he insisted during the BBC interview. This reflects Lukashenko’s desire to avoid the consequences of open involvement in the war, including potential international sanctions and further isolation from the West.

Tactical Nuclear Weapons: A Key Strategic Asset

One of the more striking revelations in Lukashenko’s interview was his confirmation that Belarus is “completely ready” to use the Russian tactical nuclear weapons stationed on its soil if necessary. However, he stressed that such a drastic move would only be considered in response to a direct foreign military incursion into Belarusian territory.

“We would only use [the weapons] if the boot of one [foreign] soldier steps into Belarus,” Lukashenko asserted. He also emphasized that Putin would never use the nuclear arsenal without his consent, suggesting that Belarus retains a degree of control over the decision to deploy these weapons, despite their Russian origin.

The presence of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus has heightened fears of nuclear escalation in the region. Western leaders have condemned the move as an irresponsible provocation, further destabilizing the security landscape in Europe. While Lukashenko has attempted to reassure the international community by stating that the weapons are purely defensive and would not be used preemptively, the risk of miscalculation or miscommunication remains a persistent concern.

Lukashenko’s position on the war in Ukraine reflects his ongoing balancing act between loyalty to Putin and managing the geopolitical realities that come with such a close alliance. Since the onset of the war, Belarus has found itself more isolated from the West than ever before. Sanctions targeting the Belarusian economy and government have further strained the country, which was already suffering from economic difficulties prior to the conflict.

Yet, despite Belarus’s reliance on Russia for economic, military, and political support, Lukashenko appears keen to avoid being drawn into a direct confrontation with Ukraine and the West. His rhetoric around the war has been carefully calibrated to support Putin’s agenda while minimizing the risk of international backlash against Belarus.

Nevertheless, the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons and Belarus’s role as a base for Russian military operations suggest that Lukashenko’s options for avoiding deeper involvement in the conflict are limited. His country’s integration into Russia’s broader military strategy makes it difficult to maintain the illusion of neutrality or non-involvement, and the longer the war drags on, the harder it will be for Belarus to avoid being sucked further into the conflict.

North Korea and Russia: Growing Ties?

Lukashenko’s strong denial of North Korean troop involvement has not quelled the speculation about Pyongyang’s role in the Ukraine war. In recent months, there have been growing indications that Russia and North Korea are strengthening their military and political ties. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s visit to Russia in September 2023 fueled rumors of potential military cooperation between the two countries, including the possibility of North Korea supplying weapons or manpower to aid Russia’s war effort.

While there is no confirmed evidence that North Korean troops have been deployed to Ukraine, the reports have raised alarm in the international community. North Korea has a long history of exporting its military expertise to other nations, particularly in the Middle East and Africa, where it has been involved in conflicts through weapons sales and the training of foreign troops.

For Russia, facing shortages in manpower and equipment after more than a year of intense fighting, assistance from North Korea could prove valuable. However, any such involvement would be seen as a provocative step by the West and would likely result in increased sanctions and diplomatic isolation for both Moscow and Pyongyang.