With the U.S. presidential election only weeks away and the possibility of a Donald Trump victory looming, President Joe Biden is making a concerted last-minute push to ensure continued American support for Ukraine. Biden, a staunch advocate for Ukrainian sovereignty, views U.S. foreign policy on the conflict as being under threat if Trump wins the election on November 5. In an attempt to safeguard what he believes could be a critical moment in European security, Biden is working swiftly to solidify Ukraine’s position before leaving office.
The U.S. president signed a significant ten-year security commitment with Kyiv back in June, marking a bold pledge to provide military assistance. But with his time in office potentially limited and the specter of Trump’s return to power, there’s a real concern over who will support Ukraine’s fight against Russian aggression come January 20 next year. Trump, an unpredictable figure in foreign policy, has sent mixed signals on his stance toward Ukraine and its president, Volodymyr Zelensky. This uncertainty leaves Biden scrambling to shore up Ukraine’s standing and “Trump-proof” U.S. policy on the conflict.
For Biden, this situation is deeply personal. The president has spent decades in public service, culminating in his ascension to the presidency, and he hoped for a second term to continue his agenda. However, as the reality of a possible Trump return sets in, Biden’s focus has shifted toward securing his legacy. He sees continued U.S. support for Ukraine as an essential part of that legacy—a lasting achievement that would underscore his commitment to defending democracy abroad.
Throughout his tenure, Biden has been consistent in his defense of Ukraine. His administration’s support has included both military aid and strong diplomatic backing. In June 2023, Biden’s signing of a decade-long security commitment sent a clear signal to both Ukraine and its adversaries that the U.S. intended to stand by Kyiv for the long haul. Yet, Biden knows that his foreign policy legacy is fragile. With the possibility of Trump reversing key decisions on Ukraine, Biden is making a final effort to ensure that the policies he helped put in place endure, regardless of the election outcome.
Donald Trump’s foreign policy, particularly his approach toward Russia and Ukraine, remains a subject of widespread speculation. During his first term as president, Trump’s relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin was often criticized as being too lenient, with many accusing him of appeasing the Russian leader. This concern was heightened when Trump withheld military aid to Ukraine in 2019, which led to his first impeachment trial.
Trump’s interactions with Zelensky have also raised eyebrows. Publicly attacking the Ukrainian president and suggesting that Zelensky should “make a deal” with Putin, Trump has left many wondering what his second term would mean for Ukraine. His reluctance to commit to supporting Ukraine militarily, combined with his critiques of U.S. financial aid to the country, further compounds fears that a Trump presidency could pivot away from supporting Kyiv in its struggle against Russian aggression.
Though Trump did meet with Zelensky during the latter’s recent visit to the U.S., the nature of their interaction remains unclear. While early reports suggest that the meeting did not go poorly, the mere fact that doubts about the meeting even existed underscores the level of unpredictability that comes with Trump’s foreign policy. This unpredictability is one of the reasons why Biden is moving quickly to secure U.S. aid and military support for Ukraine before it is potentially derailed by a new administration.
Internationally, both U.S. and European Union officials are concerned about what a Trump presidency could mean for the war in Ukraine. Trump’s prior comments about forcing Zelensky to negotiate a ceasefire with Putin and potentially give up Ukrainian territory in exchange for peace have rattled Kyiv and its Western allies. Such an approach would be a significant departure from the current U.S. strategy of supporting Ukraine’s right to defend its territorial integrity. Trump’s statements raise the possibility that he might cut off U.S. funding and military aid, which would deal a severe blow to Ukraine’s ability to continue its defense.
European leaders have expressed particular concern that Trump would pressure Zelensky into accepting a ceasefire that favors Russia—a situation they believe could embolden Putin and undermine the broader European security framework. While the Biden administration has been able to coordinate a united front with NATO and EU allies in supporting Ukraine, Trump’s potential return to office could upend that solidarity.
Given these concerns, Biden is seeking to lock in as much support for Ukraine as possible before the end of his term. His approach includes both high-profile public statements and concrete aid packages. In recent weeks, Biden has emphasized that U.S. support for Ukraine is unwavering. He has underscored this message through public events, such as a high-profile meeting at the White House last week between himself, Vice President Kamala Harris, and Zelensky. This meeting was designed to signal that Ukraine remains a top priority for the U.S. government, even as the country heads into a divisive election.
But public statements are not enough. Biden is backing up his rhetoric with substantial aid. In a recent announcement, the president unveiled a new $8 billion security assistance package for Ukraine, intended to bolster Kyiv’s military capabilities. This aid will provide new weapons that enhance Ukraine’s long-range strike capacity, which signals that Biden is not only supporting Ukraine’s defense but also sanctioning more offensive operations against Russia. The package also includes the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, which allows the U.S. government to purchase weapons for Ukraine from private companies rather than drawing from existing American stockpiles.
One of Biden’s key strategies has been to ensure that all previously allocated security assistance funding for Ukraine is spent before he leaves office. By directing the Department of Defense to exhaust all remaining funds for Ukraine, Biden hopes to prevent any potential redirection of resources by a future administration. This aggressive push to use up all available funding is seen as a way to ensure that Ukraine is well-positioned to continue its fight, even if U.S. policy shifts after the election.
As Biden works to secure his foreign policy legacy, he is also considering what a victory for Vice President Kamala Harris could mean for Ukraine. If Harris wins the election, she will inherit a conflict that has consumed much of Biden’s presidency. Biden’s goal is to leave her with a solid policy framework on which she can build to resolve the conflict. However, Harris will face significant challenges if she wins office, including the ire of Republicans, who have become increasingly critical of U.S. spending on Ukraine.
Harris, who has been actively involved in shaping U.S. policy on Ukraine during her time as vice president, will need to navigate a polarized political landscape if she takes office. While Biden has involved her in his efforts to shore up support for Ukraine, the Democrats see this as her moment to lead. Harris’s campaign will direct the party’s position on Ukraine, and Biden’s role in shaping policy will naturally fade as Election Day approaches.
Even if Trump loses the election, Biden will still have two months in office before the new president takes over in January 2025. This period, known as a “lame duck presidency,” could provide Biden with an opportunity to push through key policy decisions without the pressure of re-election. However, Biden’s influence during this time will be limited, particularly as attention shifts to the incoming administration.
One of the risks Biden faces is that his actions on Ukraine could be overshadowed by the ongoing election campaign. He must balance his desire to publicize the issue of Ukraine with the need to keep Harris in the spotlight. As the outgoing president, Biden does not want to detract from Harris’s campaign but knows that any progress on Ukraine will reflect positively on his administration.
While Biden’s efforts to secure U.S. support for Ukraine are commendable, they may not be enough to shield Kyiv from the uncertainty of a Trump presidency. Although Ukraine has welcomed Biden’s recent aid commitments, there is a recognition that these measures are only a temporary solution. Ukraine remains vulnerable to a shift in U.S. policy, especially if Trump’s administration takes a more conciliatory approach to Russia.
Biden’s final push for Ukraine is a race against time. His efforts to stack the political deck in Ukraine’s favor may help in the short term, but they are unlikely to provide a lasting solution to the conflict. With Trump’s unpredictable foreign policy looming, Biden’s ability to secure his foreign policy legacy on Ukraine is uncertain at best. As the clock ticks down, Biden is doing what he can to help Ukraine, but it may not be enough to withstand the political changes ahead.
