In a move that underscores the growing complexity of global nuclear politics, U.S. President Joe Biden has approved a highly classified nuclear strategy aimed at deterring potential threats from Russia, China, and North Korea.

This strategic document, known as the “Nuclear Employment Guidance,” was adopted in March, marking a significant shift in U.S. nuclear policy by explicitly focusing on the rapid development of China’s nuclear capabilities. The New York Times reported these developments on Tuesday, citing unnamed officials from the Pentagon and the National Security Council.

U.S. Nuclear Policy

The adoption of the “Nuclear Employment Guidance” represents a critical evolution in U.S. nuclear strategy, reflecting the rapidly changing dynamics of global power. Historically, U.S. nuclear policy has primarily been shaped by the need to counter the threats posed by Russia, particularly during the Cold War and its immediate aftermath. However, the emergence of China as a formidable nuclear power, coupled with the unpredictable behavior of North Korea, has necessitated a rethinking of this approach.

According to the New York Times, the “Nuclear Employment Guidance” is so sensitive that no digitized copies exist, highlighting the extreme secrecy surrounding the document. Updated approximately every four years, this document is the blueprint for how the U.S. might use its nuclear arsenal in various conflict scenarios. The inclusion of China as a significant factor in this strategy is a marked departure from past policies, which largely focused on Russia and, to a lesser extent, emerging threats from rogue states like North Korea.

Vipin Narang, the Acting Assistant Secretary of Defense for Space Policy, emphasized the importance of this update during a recent briefing with reporters. Narang noted that the U.S. did not anticipate the scale and speed of China’s nuclear buildup when previous nuclear strategies were formulated. “China’s growing nuclear arsenal was something the U.S. neither anticipated nor accounted for during nuclear planning decades ago,” he said, highlighting the pressing need for updated guidance.

China’s Nuclear Ambitions

China’s rapid expansion of its nuclear capabilities has become a focal point for U.S. defense planners. The Pentagon estimated in 2023 that China could double its stockpile of operational nuclear warheads to over 1,000 by 2030. This expansion is particularly concerning given that much of this arsenal is expected to be maintained at higher readiness levels, potentially reducing the warning time available to the U.S. in the event of a conflict.

In contrast, the U.S. currently possesses approximately 5,550 nuclear warheads, while Russia holds around 6,255, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. Although China’s arsenal is smaller, its growth trajectory and the strategic decisions Beijing is making about the deployment of these weapons have triggered alarm in Washington.

The decision to incorporate China into the “Nuclear Employment Guidance” signals a recognition of this emerging threat. Unlike during the Cold War, when the U.S. faced a single primary nuclear adversary in the Soviet Union, today’s strategic environment is characterized by multiple nuclear-armed states with diverse and sometimes conflicting interests.

While the inclusion of China in the U.S. nuclear strategy is significant, it is important to note that the “Nuclear Employment Guidance” addresses threats from multiple directions. Russia remains the most heavily armed nuclear state and continues to modernize its arsenal, even as relations between Washington and Moscow have deteriorated sharply in recent years. Meanwhile, North Korea’s ongoing ballistic missile tests and its development of nuclear weapons pose a persistent threat to regional stability in East Asia.

White House spokesman Sean Savett, when asked about the New York Times report, downplayed the notion that the new guidance is a response to any single country. “The guidance issued earlier this year is not a response to any single entity, country, nor threat,” Savett said, suggesting that the strategy is intended to provide a comprehensive framework for addressing the range of nuclear threats facing the U.S.

However, the timing of the guidance’s release, amid heightened tensions between the U.S. and its NATO allies on one side and China and Russia on the other, suggests that it is very much a response to the current geopolitical climate. The war in Ukraine has exacerbated the rift between the U.S. and Russia, with both sides accusing the other of escalating the conflict. Meanwhile, China’s assertive actions in the South China Sea and its growing military presence near Taiwan have increased the risk of a military confrontation in the Asia-Pacific region.

The revision of the U.S. nuclear strategy has not gone unnoticed by global powers, particularly those targeted by the guidance. Both Moscow and Beijing have criticized the U.S. for what they perceive as an aggressive posture that risks increasing tensions around the world.

Chinese officials have been particularly vocal in their opposition. Earlier this month, Chinese Defense Ministry spokesman Senior Colonel Zhang Xiaogang urged the U.S. and its allies to “abandon their Cold-War mentality.” This statement reflects Beijing’s broader narrative that portrays the U.S. as a declining power attempting to contain China’s rise through military means.

Russia, too, has responded with sharp rhetoric. During a visit to China in May, Russian President Vladimir Putin emphasized that the strategic partnership between Moscow and Beijing “is not directed against anyone,” but also made it clear that Russia views its alliance with China as a counterbalance to U.S. influence. This partnership has been deepened by shared concerns over U.S. actions, including the expansion of NATO and the deployment of missile defense systems in Europe and Asia.

New Nuclear Strategy

The adoption of the “Nuclear Employment Guidance” raises several important questions about the future of global security. One of the most pressing concerns is the potential for an arms race among the major nuclear powers. As the U.S. adjusts its strategy to account for China’s growing capabilities, there is a risk that Beijing could accelerate its nuclear buildup in response, leading to a dangerous cycle of escalation.

Moreover, the focus on China in the new strategy could have broader implications for U.S.-China relations. While the U.S. insists that its nuclear posture is defensive in nature, Beijing is likely to view it as part of a broader effort to contain its rise. This perception could fuel further distrust between the two countries and make it more difficult to manage other areas of their complex relationship, such as trade, cybersecurity, and regional security issues.

For North Korea, the inclusion in the U.S. nuclear strategy might reinforce its justification for maintaining and expanding its nuclear arsenal. Pyongyang has long argued that it needs nuclear weapons to deter what it sees as a hostile U.S. policy. If North Korea perceives that the U.S. is increasing its focus on countering its nuclear capabilities, it may respond by conducting more missile tests or expanding its nuclear program.

The strategic rivalry between the U.S. and Russia is also likely to intensify as a result of this new guidance. Moscow has repeatedly accused Washington of seeking to undermine its security through NATO expansion and missile defense initiatives. The inclusion of Russia in the U.S. nuclear strategy, therefore, is likely to be seen as further evidence of American hostility, potentially leading to more aggressive Russian military posturing.

U.S. Nuclear Strategy

As the U.S. moves forward with its new nuclear strategy, it faces the challenge of balancing deterrence with diplomacy. While the “Nuclear Employment Guidance” is designed to ensure that the U.S. can respond to multiple nuclear threats, it also raises the stakes in an already tense global environment.

One of the key questions going forward will be how the U.S. can engage with China, Russia, and North Korea to reduce the risk of nuclear conflict. Diplomatic efforts to manage these relationships will be crucial, but they will need to be backed by credible deterrence. This is where the challenge lies: finding a balance between showing strength and avoiding provocation.

The Biden administration has indicated that it remains open to dialogue with all three countries, even as it takes steps to strengthen its nuclear deterrent. However, these efforts are likely to face significant obstacles. In the case of China, for example, any meaningful arms control negotiations would require Beijing to accept limits on its nuclear arsenal, something it has been reluctant to do. Similarly, Russia’s ongoing conflict with Ukraine and its broader geopolitical ambitions may limit the potential for constructive engagement.

The approval of the “Nuclear Employment Guidance” by President Biden marks a significant shift in U.S. nuclear strategy, reflecting the complex and evolving nature of global threats. By focusing on the rising challenge posed by China, as well as the ongoing threats from Russia and North Korea, the U.S. is adapting its nuclear posture to address the realities of a multipolar world.

However, this new strategy also carries risks. It could fuel an arms race, exacerbate tensions with key global powers, and make diplomatic resolutions more difficult to achieve. As the U.S. navigates this new era of nuclear strategy, it will need to carefully manage these risks while ensuring that it remains capable of deterring any potential adversaries.

In the coming years, the success of the “Nuclear Employment Guidance” will depend on how well the U.S. can balance its military and diplomatic efforts. The stakes are high, not just for the U.S., but for global security as a whole. The challenge will be to ensure that this new strategy strengthens deterrence without inadvertently increasing the likelihood of the very conflicts it seeks to prevent.