The South China Sea escalate and tensions rise over the potential for conflict in Taiwan, China and Russia are making significant advances in their submarine capabilities. These developments, aimed at strengthening their naval prowess, are clear demonstrations of their military modernization efforts in the Pacific. The growing submarine forces of these two nations signal strategic moves to challenge the dominance of the United States and its allies in critical maritime regions, underscoring an increasingly volatile power dynamic in Asia.
In October 2023, Naval News reported a new image of China’s advanced Type 09IIIB nuclear-powered attack submarine (SSN), surfacing on Chinese social media, revealing key insights into its design and capabilities. This new image has provided analysts with a closer look at China’s efforts to develop more sophisticated underwater warfare technologies. Simultaneously, Russia’s Admiralty Shipyards launched the “Yakutsk,” the sixth and final Project 636.3 diesel-electric submarine, destined for Russia’s Pacific Fleet, marking a culmination of efforts to enhance Russia’s naval strength in the region. Both events showcase the growing submarine capabilities of these two military powers.
The Type 09IIIB SSN is the latest product of China’s concerted efforts to modernize its navy. Produced at the Bohai shipyard in Huludao, this submarine boasts several improvements over earlier variants, including a streamlined design that enhances its stealth and maneuverability. The submarine is fitted with a vertical launch system (VLS) and a pump-jet propulsor, both of which contribute to its ability to launch various missile systems and improve acoustic quieting, making it harder to detect underwater.
Naval News noted that satellite imagery suggested the Bohai shipyard had launched between three and six of these advanced submarines since 2022, signaling China’s commitment to producing state-of-the-art nuclear-powered submarines (SSNs). The Type 09IIIB will eventually be replaced by the next-generation Type 09V SSN, which is expected to further advance China’s underwater warfare capabilities, demonstrating the country’s sustained focus on enhancing its military technology in response to rising regional tensions.
This emphasis on modernizing the submarine fleet reflects China’s broader naval strategy. An October 2023 paper by Edward Feltham for the Naval Association of Canada highlights how China has prioritized submarine development as a key element of its Pacific strategy. According to Feltham, China’s submarine fleet, composed of nuclear-powered attack submarines (SSNs), diesel-electric submarines (SSKs), and nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs), serves multiple strategic purposes.
- SSKs are primarily deployed for controlling the waters around Taiwan, a focal point of Chinese territorial claims.
- SSNs safeguard vital sea routes and extend China’s military presence into the Indian Ocean.
- SSBNs, capable of carrying nuclear warheads, provide China with a credible second-strike nuclear deterrence, reinforcing its ability to project power and protect its territorial claims.
These submarines are essential for both defensive and offensive operations, allowing China to protect its interests in the South China Sea, counter potential adversaries like the US, and project power beyond its immediate waters.
In parallel, Russia’s submarine advancements have also caught the attention of global military analysts. The October 2023 launch of the “Yakutsk,” part of the Project 636.3 class, further strengthens Russia’s Pacific Fleet. The Project 636.3 submarines, known as the Improved Kilo II class, are diesel-electric submarines that have earned a reputation for their quiet operation and formidable missile capabilities.
Equipped with Kalibr-PL cruise missiles, the Project 636.3 submarines provide Russia with significant firepower and an ability to strike targets at great distances. The “Yakutsk” will soon join the 19th Submarine Brigade, becoming a key component of Russia’s naval strategy in the Pacific. This launch completes the second batch of six submarines, part of a contract signed in 2016 to bolster Russia’s presence in the region.
The importance of these submarines for Russia’s strategic posturing cannot be overstated. Nicholas Compton’s March 2021 thesis on Russia’s Pacific strategy emphasizes the critical role submarines play in asserting control over contested areas in the Pacific and the Arctic. Russia’s advanced submarines, including its Borei SSBN and Yasen SSGN classes, are vital for nuclear deterrence and power projection in these critical regions.
Compton also highlights the Russian Navy’s interest in using submarines for unconventional warfare, including the potential for disrupting undersea communication cables, a tactic that could prove devastating in modern warfare. This hybrid warfare approach extends the utility of submarines beyond traditional military engagements, giving Russia greater flexibility in protecting its interests and challenging its adversaries.
While China and Russia’s submarine programs serve their individual strategic objectives, there is growing evidence that the two countries are collaborating on submarine technology and tactics. In October 2023, Asia Times reported that China and Russia are jointly developing the Type 096 SSBN, a next-generation nuclear-powered submarine designed to enhance China’s ability to project power in the Pacific. Russian expertise in submarine stealth technology is reportedly playing a crucial role in this collaboration, helping to make Chinese submarines more difficult to detect by the US and its allies.
This cooperation is mutually beneficial. China stands to gain from Russia’s decades of experience in submarine warfare, while Russia benefits from China’s growing industrial capabilities, particularly in areas like shipbuilding and electronics. Moreover, Russia’s expertise in hybrid warfare, including the use of submarines to sever or tap undersea cables, could be a valuable asset for China as it seeks to extend its influence into new regions, such as the Indian Ocean.
Yet, despite these shared interests, the relationship between China and Russia remains one of cautious cooperation rather than a full-blown alliance. Both countries are wary of becoming too dependent on one another or compromising their strategic autonomy. In a June 2022 article for Trends Research & Advisory, Ash Rossiter noted that Russia is particularly concerned about China reverse-engineering its military technology. The Yuan-class submarine, which China sold to Pakistan, bears similarities to Russia’s Kilo-class design, raising concerns in Moscow about the long-term consequences of sharing advanced military technology with China.
This technological rivalry is one of the key factors that prevents China and Russia from formalizing their naval partnership into a more structured alliance. According to Elizabeth Wishnick, writing in an October 2022 article for the China Aerospace Studies Institute, both countries have thus far preferred to maintain a flexible partnership rather than commit to a formal alliance. This approach allows them to cooperate when their interests align while retaining the freedom to pursue their own strategic objectives independently.
The simultaneous submarine advancements of China and Russia are more than just demonstrations of military might—they are part of a broader strategy to challenge US naval dominance in the Pacific and Arctic regions. By enhancing their submarine capabilities, both countries are positioning themselves to exert greater control over key maritime areas, including the Taiwan Strait for China and the Arctic for Russia.
These developments are not only shaping the strategic landscape in Asia but also raising concerns in the US and its Pacific allies. Both China and Russia are improving their ability to deny access to contested waters, complicating efforts by the US and its allies to project power in these regions. Moreover, the prospect of closer naval collaboration between the two countries could pose additional challenges for US naval planners, who may need to contend with more sophisticated submarine threats in multiple theaters.
For the US and its allies, these developments underscore the importance of investing in their own submarine forces. In recent years, the US Navy has sought to modernize its submarine fleet, including the development of the Virginia-class SSNs and the Columbia-class SSBNs. However, the rapid pace of submarine advancements in China and Russia suggests that the US may need to accelerate its efforts if it is to maintain its technological edge in undersea warfare.
As China and Russia continue to develop their submarine capabilities, their respective naval forces are becoming increasingly formidable players in the Pacific. While their advancements serve their national interests, they also present a growing challenge to the US and its allies. The cooperation between China and Russia in submarine technology adds a new layer of complexity to the strategic environment, highlighting the need for vigilance and adaptation in the face of rapidly changing military dynamics in Asia.
