As the 29th Conference of the Parties (COP29) climate talks unfold in Baku, Azerbaijan, Beijing has voiced concerns about the impact of former U.S. President Donald Trump’s possible return to office on global climate change efforts. China’s top climate envoy, Liu Zhenmin, emphasized that a shift in U.S. climate policy could destabilize international climate progress, potentially unraveling years of painstaking diplomatic work. With nearly 200 nations committed to the Paris Agreement, the stakes have never been higher.
During a media briefing before a side event at COP29, Liu Zhenmin highlighted that the international landscape was undergoing significant changes, and that Beijing was closely monitoring U.S. climate policies ahead of the 2024 U.S. presidential election.
“The international situation has really changed — we’re also concerned about the United States after the election,” said Liu. Trump’s commitment to pulling the United States out of the Paris Agreement has raised alarms worldwide. The Paris accord, adopted in 2015, represents a unified pledge by the world to limit global warming, ideally to 1.5 degrees Celsius, a target that scientists consider critical to averting the worst effects of climate change.
Trump’s re-election campaign includes promises to withdraw the United States from the Paris Agreement, prioritize American energy production, and continue advancing domestic oil and gas extraction. His rhetoric marks a stark contrast to the Biden administration’s proactive stance, which has sought to reassert American leadership in international climate efforts.
“Everybody’s concerned about next steps … whether after the U.S. election, U.S. climate policy will or won’t change,” Liu stated. While some delegates remain optimistic, Liu’s statements reflect a broader sense of apprehension among climate advocates regarding Trump’s potential impact on multilateral climate cooperation.
Despite intense competition and conflicts over trade, cybersecurity, and military affairs, China and the United States have found common ground on climate. This cooperation has continued under the Biden administration, as both countries recognize the urgent need to address their greenhouse gas emissions as the world’s largest polluters. Last month, Liu and U.S. climate envoy John Podesta held meetings in preparation for COP29, underscoring their commitment to climate diplomacy even amid political tensions.
For China, climate change represents not only an environmental priority but also a pillar of its economic strategy, as it pushes forward with renewable energy investments, carbon reduction technologies, and a commitment to peaking emissions by 2030. China’s current climate target, outlined in its 14th Five-Year Plan, aims for carbon neutrality by 2060, a goal that aligns with its vision of a sustainable, economically prosperous future.
Liu’s concerns were echoed by other Chinese officials, reflecting a nuanced view of the potential geopolitical shifts that could result from Trump’s return to office. Deputy Head of European Affairs at China’s Foreign Ministry, Cao Lei, expressed broader concerns about the potential implications of Trump’s foreign policy, including his stance on international alliances and multilateral cooperation.
Cao warned that Trump’s return could signal a “turning point of our times,” hinting at a regression to the era of political and military tensions reminiscent of the Cold War. He highlighted the potential risks to China-EU relations, which have been characterized by cooperative climate and trade agreements in recent years.
“No one wants to return to the law of the jungle, no one wants to go back to the era of confrontation and the Cold War, and no one wants to return to unilateral hegemony,” Cao asserted. His comments underscore the growing concern in Beijing that Trump’s approach to foreign policy could lead to increased global instability and disrupt the collaborative spirit that has been key to recent climate efforts.
Meanwhile, in Baku, U.S. representatives continued to press China to adopt stronger climate targets. At a press conference on Monday, U.S. climate envoy John Podesta called on China to bolster its climate ambitions. He stressed that China, with its vast economic and technological resources, has the potential to exceed its current climate goals, which are critical for limiting global warming within the targets set by the Paris Agreement.
Podesta stated that China’s economy had “already peaked emissions” and emphasized the role that increased ambition could play in advancing global climate goals. “They can be more ambitious. I think it will send a powerful signal to the world,” he said. Podesta’s comments reflected a long-standing U.S. perspective that China should take on a greater role in international climate leadership, especially given its rapid economic growth and industrial expansion.
Despite external pressures, China has made significant strides in recent years to position itself as a global leader in green technology and sustainable development. Beijing’s robust investment in solar, wind, and hydroelectric power has enabled China to become the world’s largest producer of renewable energy. China is also the leading manufacturer of electric vehicles, with its automotive industry undergoing a transformation driven by both government policy and market demands for cleaner technology.
However, China faces significant domestic challenges in reducing its reliance on coal, a key component of its energy mix. As the country works to address the socioeconomic needs of its 1.4 billion citizens, the transition away from fossil fuels poses logistical, economic, and social hurdles. In response, Beijing has implemented policies aimed at gradually phasing out coal, reducing energy inefficiencies, and promoting sustainable urbanization.
The Paris Agreement, reached in 2015, represents a landmark effort to bring nations together in combating climate change, with nearly 200 signatories committing to significant emission reductions and environmental policies. Central to the agreement is the understanding that no single nation can tackle climate change alone; instead, it requires a collective, science-driven approach supported by transparent policies, financing, and cooperation.
However, the Paris Agreement allows each country to set its own emissions targets, and compliance is technically voluntary, which critics argue limits its effectiveness. The Trump administration’s withdrawal from the accord in 2020 led to a temporary setback in the global climate agenda, only for the U.S. to rejoin under President Biden. Trump’s potential re-election has raised concerns that such a reversal could happen again, jeopardizing progress made over the past decade.
If Trump were to withdraw the United States from the Paris Agreement again, the repercussions could be significant. Given that the U.S. is the world’s second-largest greenhouse gas emitter, its absence from the agreement would weaken the global commitment to reducing emissions. Additionally, Trump’s focus on expanding domestic oil and gas production would likely increase emissions, exacerbating global warming and complicating international climate targets.
For nations like China, a U.S. withdrawal from climate leadership would be troubling, as it could shift the dynamics of global climate diplomacy, forcing other countries to reassess their commitments and collaborative efforts. It could also embolden other countries to deprioritize their own climate targets, hindering the effectiveness of global efforts.
Despite these uncertainties, Liu Zhenmin voiced a cautiously optimistic view about international cooperation. He acknowledged that multilateral climate initiatives should continue regardless of shifts in individual countries’ policies, a sentiment shared by many climate advocates. Liu’s statement reflects an understanding that climate change transcends political boundaries and necessitates cooperation, innovation, and resilience.
At COP29, countries have continued to negotiate solutions to address pressing climate issues, from financing climate adaptation for vulnerable countries to reducing methane emissions and setting stricter regulations for fossil fuel production. While the prospect of Trump’s re-election has introduced an element of uncertainty, many delegates believe that the global commitment to climate action is robust enough to withstand such challenges.
