In the global arena, the U.S. presidential election holds profound implications far beyond its borders. The international community closely scrutinizes each candidate’s stance on foreign policy, recognizing that decisions made in the White House ripple across continents. As the upcoming debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump approaches, the spotlight intensifies on how their respective policies will shape America’s role in global affairs. From Eastern Europe to the Middle East, and beyond, the implications are significant.

Take Vladimir Putin’s perspective, for instance. The Russian leader, no stranger to geopolitical maneuvering, faces contrasting prospects with either candidate. Biden, despite labeling Putin as a “killer” and affirming support for Ukraine, offers a sense of predictability that Moscow begrudgingly respects. In contrast, Trump’s ambiguous stance on NATO and Ukraine, coupled with his lax approach to Russian assertiveness in Europe, presents an uncertain landscape that could favor Russian interests in some respects. However, Trump’s unpredictability also poses risks, potentially upsetting the delicate balance of international relations that Putin navigates.

For Moscow, the preference for Biden, albeit cautiously stated, underscores a preference for stability over the unknown. The Kremlin calculates the geopolitical implications of a Biden presidency, where policies are anticipated to align more closely with traditional U.S. foreign policy norms, including robust support for NATO and a firm stance on Russian aggression in Ukraine. Such consistency is viewed as a manageable scenario, despite underlying tensions and historical animosities.

Conversely, Trump’s unconventional approach to diplomacy, typified by his transactional dealings and occasional disregard for alliance structures, presents a mixed bag for global stability. While Trump’s administration has sought to redefine America’s role on the global stage, emphasizing economic pragmatism and reduced military entanglements, this approach has fostered uncertainty among traditional allies and adversaries alike. His criticism of NATO allies for inadequate defense spending and his overtures towards Russia have unsettled the established order, prompting questions about the durability of U.S. commitments abroad.

Beyond Europe, the Middle East scrutinizes the implications of U.S. leadership as well. Trump’s administration has pursued a policy of disengagement in some areas while asserting robust support for Israel, symbolized notably by the relocation of the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem. Biden, on the other hand, promises a return to a more multilateral approach, seeking to reengage with international institutions and recalibrate relationships strained during Trump’s tenure.

In Asia, particularly concerning China, both candidates offer contrasting visions on trade, security, and human rights. Trump’s confrontational trade policies and strategic competition with Beijing have reshaped regional dynamics, prompting concerns over stability and economic relations. Biden advocates for a more measured approach, emphasizing alliances and international cooperation to counterbalance China’s influence while addressing human rights concerns more assertively.

Ultimately, the outcome of the U.S. presidential election will reverberate across continents, influencing global economic policies, security alliances, and diplomatic strategies. The world watches closely as Americans decide not just their next leader, but also the trajectory of U.S. engagement with the international community. In an interconnected world where geopolitical shifts can occur swiftly, the implications of this election extend far beyond America’s shores, shaping the future of global governance and international relations.

Not that there’s a guaranteed payout for Moscow. The Kremlin was left disappointed by the first Trump presidency. In 2016 one Russian official admitted to me having celebrated Mr. Trump’s victory with a cigar and a bottle of champagne. But the champagne went flat. The Russian authorities had expected an improvement in Russia-U.S. relations—that never materialized. Who’s to say a second Trump presidency wouldn’t leave Moscow feeling similarly underwhelmed?

Whoever wins the race for the White House, the Russian authorities will be watching closely for signs of post-election political instability and polarization in America and looking for ways to benefit. The hope in Moscow might be that a politically divided and internally focused U.S. will be less effective on the global stage, potentially giving Russia more room to maneuver.

Beijing’s View

Both candidates are vying to be tough on Beijing and have similar economic policies to combat China’s rise, including raising tariffs on cheap Chinese goods. But they have very different approaches to dealing with China’s regional influence.

Biden has shored up relationships there, hoping that a united front sends a clear message to an increasingly assertive Beijing. But when president, Trump focused less on being a statesman and more on what he saw was the “best deal.” He threatened to remove U.S. troops from South Korea unless Seoul paid Washington more money.

The biggest difference between the two is on Taiwan. On multiple occasions, Biden has reiterated a pledge to come to the self-governing island’s defense if President Xi makes good on his promise to reunify Taiwan with the mainland, by force if necessary. But Trump has accused Taiwan of undermining American businesses, and he has expressed opposition to a U.S. bill that sent aid there. That led some to question whether he would be willing to come to Taipei’s aid if needed.

When the U.S. votes, China is unlikely to have a favorite in the fight. In Beijing’s view, an unpredictable Trump could weaken and divide U.S. allies in the region—but he could also create another trade war. They won’t be too keen on another four years of Biden either. They believe his alliance-building has the potential to create a new Cold War.

Delhi’s Perspective

There is perhaps no foreign country for whom the U.S. election matters more than Ukraine. Everyone knows U.S. support in the form of money and weapons has been vital in sustaining Ukraine’s war effort. Few believe that Europe could quickly or easily step into any gap. But here in Kyiv, most people are less focused on the ins and outs of the campaign than you would expect.

That is because, as one person told me, November feels a long way away. There are more pressing concerns as cities come under attack from Russian glide bombs and as Ukrainian forces battle to prevent Russian advances. They are very aware of what is being said about Ukraine during the campaign. When it comes to Donald Trump, analysts here know he has talked about bringing an end to a war and that there is talk of cutting aid.

While some fear he could force Ukraine into a deal it does not like, experts caution that what will matter is what someone does in office, not what they say during the campaign or in a debate. And there is an understanding that even a Joe Biden win will not prevent challenges, given how long it took to get the last aid package passed by Congress. So the stakes for Ukraine are high, but it remains only a spectator, and unpredictability is something Ukrainians have long learned to live with.

The UK’s Concerns

Policymakers in the UK tell me they are looking at the U.S. election with some trepidation. On one level, there is a nervousness about potential decisions that could affect the UK. Would a President Trump returning to the White House weaken U.S. military support for Ukraine and cozy up to Vladimir Putin? Would he pick another fight with Europe over the NATO military alliance? Would he spark a trade war with China? Would a second-term President Biden increase U.S. isolationism and protectionism? Would he be up for the role physically for another four years?

On another level, there is a broader concern. There is a fear in the UK that a close result on November 5, one that is not accepted as legitimate by many American voters, could lead to political violence worse than the storming of the Capitol in January 2021. A crisis of American democracy may damage U.S. global leadership and encourage autocrats the world over. All this worries UK politicians in both major parties as they prepare for their own election on July 4.

Would they at some point have to choose between supporting democratic values and staying close to a traditional ally? Would they have to choose between the U.S. and Europe on some big issue? Above all, the U.S. election presents the UK with more uncertainty in an increasingly uncertain world.

Israel and Palestine

Both candidates are being closely watched in the knowledge that the White House race will have real consequences. President Biden strongly backed Israel after the shocking October 7 attacks and has continued to supply the country with weapons even as he has become more critical of the fighting and the high number of Palestinian civilians being killed.

Overall, polls suggest a higher share of Jewish Israelis think Trump would be better for Israel than Biden. Most disapprove of Biden’s handling of the war. And Palestinians widely see him as neglecting their suffering. Israelis positively recall how Trump formally recognized Jerusalem as their capital and struck new deals to set up diplomatic ties between their country and Arab states. He supports the war in Gaza but has also urged Israel to “get it over with,” arguing its image is being damaged.

While Palestinians see little hope in a second Biden term, Trump could see them even worse off. The former president has promised, if elected, to cut off all U.S. aid to Palestinians. In the longer term, President Biden continues to support a two-state solution—the established international formula for peace—although he has not given a concrete plan for achieving one. Trump has questioned the viability of an independent Palestinian state.

Conventional wisdom has it that Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would like to see Trump back in power. However, the former president is said to resent him for acknowledging Biden’s victory in 2020.

India’s Strategic Position

In the eyes of the White House, India is in a sweet spot. The United States sees India as a geopolitical counterweight to China. India also has the fifth largest economy in the world, set to become the third largest by 2030. Earlier this month, the country held the world’s largest democratic elections, which saw Narendra Modi become prime minister for a third consecutive term.

Although India has been accused of democratic backsliding and misrepresenting the true economic picture domestically, none of that really factors for the United States given India’s strategic importance. Whatever happens in November doesn’t make a difference to how India will operate on the global stage. Both candidates are known entities.

If Biden remains president, then the status quo prevails, which means a healthy trading relationship and the red carpet treatment. Just last year, Modi was in Washington for an official state visit complete with a lavish reception at the White House in honor of the prime minister who also addressed a joint session of Congress. If Trump is re-elected, the only difference might be a question of tone. He has previously called Modi an exceptional leader. Trump visited India in 2020 where tens of thousands of people came to see the American president, side by side with their prime minister in Modi’s home state of Gujarat. Proof that India can deal with whichever political outcome.

Mexico’s Perspective

Mexicans have recently held their presidential election making a historic choice: electing Claudia Sheinbaum as the country’s first female president. Her close ally, outgoing President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, forged an unlikely partnership with Donald Trump when he was in the White House. While Mexico’s relations with Mr. Biden have at times been tense, the neighbors have consistently found common ground in critical areas like immigration and cross-border trade.

Once in power, Sheinbaum will need to show she is not just an extension of the previous administration—and what better way to do that than through relations with Washington? As such, she may try to be different in tone and approach to her predecessor, if not in substance, when it comes to working with either Biden or a potential second Trump presidency.

The campaign trail, Claudia Sheinbaum said she was unfazed by the prospect of either man in the White House. “I will fight for Mexicans,” she told me. Mexicans themselves, however, remember Trump’s presidency with no fondness. The provocative rhetoric alone—“drug dealers, criminals, rapists,” as he called Mexican immigrants when he descended the infamous gold escalator to launch his campaign in 2016—still sticks in the craw for many here.

Canada’s Concerns

America’s northern neighbor has some worries about a second Donald Trump presidency. Trump has never been as popular in Canada as with parts of the U.S. public. One poll earlier this year suggested a majority worried that American democracy would not survive another four years of Trump.

Still, while Trump’s time as president put a strain on the bilateral relationship, Canada came away with some wins, notably a successfully renegotiated North American trade deal. With November’s U.S. election fast approaching, Canada’s political and business class is already ramping up for more trade upheaval.

It’s hard to overstate how closely linked the two countries are, especially economically—about C$3.6 billion ($2.6bn; £2.1bn) in trade crossed the border each day last year. So a planned formal review of the trade deal, along with Trump campaign musings about a worldwide tariff on imported goods, have both been cause for concern.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has launched a “Team Canada” project, sending politicians, envoys, and business leaders fanning out across the U.S. to pitch the value of Canada, both privately and publicly. A similar initiative proved successful during the first Trump presidency. The country will “be ready to deal with whatever gets tossed at us,” Trudeau has said.

The rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump has global ramifications. From Moscow to Beijing, Delhi to London, and beyond, the world is watching closely, each with its own set of hopes, fears, and strategic calculations. As the campaign unfolds, international stakeholders will continue to assess how the outcome could reshape the geopolitical landscape and their bilateral relations with the United States.