China launched an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) into the Pacific Ocean for the first time in 44 years, sending shockwaves through the international community. The missile, carrying a dummy warhead, was launched on Wednesday afternoon (New Zealand time) and at 8:44 am Beijing time, according to reports. Although the Chinese defense ministry described the event as part of their “routine arrangement in our annual training plan” and emphasized that it was not aimed at any specific country or target, the implications of the launch have raised concerns, particularly within the Asia-Pacific region.
The missile’s flight path culminated in the South Pacific, within predetermined sea zones, and Chinese authorities stated that it “fell into expected sea areas.” Despite these reassurances, the test has prompted a flurry of diplomatic responses and security concerns from neighboring nations, notably New Zealand and Japan.
New Zealand’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Winston Peters, expressed his alarm at the missile launch, characterizing it as an unwelcome and “concerning development” for the region. In a formal statement, Peters emphasized the potential ramifications of China’s actions on regional stability, and the deviation from the expectation of peace in the Pacific.
“We remain in the process of gathering further information,” Peters said, acknowledging that the full details surrounding the missile test were still emerging. “However, as reported, China has conducted a long-range ballistic missile test terminating in the South Pacific. Pacific Leaders have clearly articulated their expectation that we have a peaceful, stable, prosperous, and secure region. As part of the region, New Zealand strongly supports that expectation.”
Peters confirmed that New Zealand had already initiated conversations with its Pacific partners and pledged to continue diplomatic efforts in the coming days. The missile test, he implied, runs counter to the collective ambitions for maintaining peace and security within the region, where nuclear and missile tests are rare.
Japan, too, was quick to respond to the launch. A Japan Coast Guard official revealed that it had received an advance notice from China warning about “space debris” that would be falling into three zones, including parts of the South China Sea and areas of the Pacific north of the Philippines’ Luzon island. This warning was relayed on Monday, giving Japanese authorities some time to prepare.
Though China’s missile test took place without direct incident, its proximity to key territories and international waters raised concerns in Japan, a country already on edge due to territorial disputes with China, notably over the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea. The escalation of tensions in these disputed areas, coupled with China’s growing military presence, has been a recurring point of concern in Tokyo.
The launch, while framed by China as routine, is being interpreted differently by foreign policy experts. Associate Professor Nicholas Khoo from the University of Otago highlighted the missile test as a disturbing development for New Zealand and the broader Asia-Pacific region. Khoo warned that the event should serve as a wake-up call for New Zealand, signaling that the region is now firmly entrenched in a period of great power competition.
“The fact that the missile landed in the South Pacific should actually send a signal to New Zealand that we are now well into an era of great power competition, and we really need to wise up to all of this,” Khoo remarked.
While China has regularly conducted missile tests within its territory and in other isolated areas, such as the Gobi Desert, the South Pacific has largely been free of such military activities. This latest missile test, Khoo argued, breaks with precedent and sets the stage for China to potentially carry out similar tests in the future.
“This is a big deal,” Khoo said, underscoring the geopolitical implications. “This sets a precedent where the Chinese [government] will think they can do this testing on a regular basis, which is the reason why there needs to be a regional response.”
According to Khoo, the missile test was likely designed to send a “very clear signal” to the world, particularly to the United States and its allies, that China has vital security interests in the Asia-Pacific region that it intends to defend. This assertion is in line with China’s increasing assertiveness in regional territorial disputes, such as its ongoing conflicts with the Philippines over the South China Sea.
Rising Tensions in the South China Sea
China’s decision to conduct the missile test at this time coincides with a period of rising tensions in the South China Sea, where it has engaged in territorial disputes with several Southeast Asian nations. The situation between China and the Philippines has become particularly heated in recent months, with both countries laying claim to islands and maritime regions rich in resources and strategic value.
The missile test can also be seen in the broader context of China’s strained relationship with the United States, which has shifted from a policy of “engagement” to one of “strategic competition.” The competition between the world’s two largest economies has intensified in recent years, with military posturing and diplomatic standoffs becoming more frequent.
“The relationship between the United States and China has also changed significantly from a policy of ‘engagement’ to strategic competition,” Khoo said, pointing out the broader geopolitical shifts that are reshaping the international order.
Nuclear Messaging?
Ankit Panda, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, D.C., noted that China’s missile test in the Pacific marks the first such launch in the region since 1980, making it a highly unusual event. He added that the timing of the missile test may not be coincidental, with China possibly aiming to demonstrate the credibility of its nuclear deterrence capabilities.
“Missile tests like this could be designed to show that China’s nuclear capabilities are still credible,” Panda said. “The branch of the Chinese military charged with operating these missiles in recent years has seen a leadership purge and has come under scrutiny for corruption. This kind of a test could be designed to bolster morale and communicate to internal audiences that China’s nuclear capabilities remain relevant.”
Panda explained that while China is not alone in conducting long-range missile tests—the United States, United Kingdom, France, and Russia regularly conduct similar exercises—China’s test sends a message to international stakeholders, including the U.S., that its nuclear arsenal remains a significant factor in global security calculations.
Furthermore, Panda observed that China had followed standard protocols for missile tests by issuing warnings to mariners and airmen about the potential danger zones. “The Chinese did issue warnings to mariners and airmen, which are generally speaking the kind of practices you would want to see from a country carrying out these kinds of long-range tests,” he noted.
However, the broader question, according to Panda, is whether this test signals a shift towards more frequent missile tests by China in the future—a development that would undoubtedly heighten tensions in the region. China’s missile test has raised important questions about the future of security and diplomacy in the Asia-Pacific. As regional powers like Japan and New Zealand react with caution, there is a growing concern that the peaceful status quo in the Pacific could be under threat. With the possibility of China engaging in more frequent missile tests, the delicate balance of power in the region could be disrupted.
New Zealand’s role in this evolving situation may become more pronounced as Pacific nations look to Wellington for leadership on maintaining regional stability. Peters’ outreach to Pacific partners in the wake of the test suggests that New Zealand may take on a more proactive role in shaping the regional response to China’s military activities.
At the same time, China’s actions are likely to trigger diplomatic responses from other global powers, including the United States, which has long maintained a significant military presence in the Pacific. Whether this test will lead to more concrete diplomatic or military actions remains to be seen, but it has undoubtedly cast a spotlight on the increasing complexity of international relations in the Asia-Pacific region. As the dust settles from China’s missile launch, one thing is clear: the Asia-Pacific is entering a new era of strategic competition, and the actions of regional powers will shape the future security landscape for years to come.
