The Chengdu J-10C, China’s 4.5-generation multirole fighter jet, has suddenly emerged in the international spotlight after Pakistani media claimed the aircraft was used to shoot down Indian warplanes during a military confrontation on the night of May 6. Among the alleged casualties: multiple Dassault Rafale jets — India’s prized French-made fighters.
The Indian government has neither confirmed nor denied these claims, but an official comment noted that “combat losses are part of any military operation,” fueling speculation that India might indeed have suffered setbacks during what is now being called Operation Sindoor.
The reported shootdowns have triggered a storm of media coverage across South Asia and beyond. Major international outlets including CNN, Reuters, and The Washington Post have cited anonymous defense officials suggesting two or three Indian jets may have been lost in a sudden aerial engagement near the Line of Control. The lack of an Indian rebuttal has only deepened the mystery — and raised the geopolitical stakes.
As news of the J-10C’s alleged combat success spreads, other countries are taking notice. Egypt, in particular, has emerged as a potential new buyer for the Chinese jet. The Chinese Ministry of National Defense recently announced a high-profile joint exercise — “Eagles of Civilization 2025” — conducted between Chinese and Egyptian air forces from mid-April to early May.
“This is the first joint training between the Chinese and Egyptian militaries, which is of great significance to promoting pragmatic cooperation and enhancing mutual trust,” the ministry stated.
While military drills like this are not unusual, the timing is notable. For months, Egypt has been rumored to be considering a purchase of the J-10C, a jet many experts consider a viable alternative to Western platforms like the American F-16 or European Eurofighter Typhoon.
Egypt’s potential procurement of the J-10C carries implications far beyond bilateral defense ties. It represents China’s broader ambition to become a top-tier arms exporter capable of challenging American and European dominance in global fighter jet markets.
But China isn’t the only country looking to sell fighter jets to Egypt. South Korea has been actively pitching its KAI FA-50, a light combat aircraft that has already secured export deals with Poland, the Philippines, and Malaysia.
In a recent interview, Egyptian Ambassador to South Korea, Khaled Abdelrahman, said Cairo is considering the purchase of 100 FA-50 jets, with 36 possibly forming the first batch. The rest could be built under license in Egypt’s own Helwan aircraft factory.
“We hope the technical and detailed discussions between our institutions and Korean firms will lead to a successful outcome,” Abdelrahman said.
This puts South Korea and China in direct competition for Egypt’s next-generation air fleet. South Korean media have voiced concerns that the J-10C’s rising reputation — particularly in light of its supposed aerial victory over the Rafale — could derail Seoul’s negotiations.
The J-10C and FA-50 both fall within the 4.5-generation fighter class, but they are fundamentally different machines. The J-10C is a full-scale, high-speed multirole fighter capable of air dominance in contested environments. It boasts advanced avionics, AESA radar, stealth features, and the long-range PL-15 missile, which some claim was key in the recent shootdown of the Rafales.
The FA-50, by contrast, is a more compact, affordable platform optimized for training, light attack, and short-range defense missions. Its strength lies in its lower cost, ease of maintenance, and interoperability with NATO systems.
Egypt’s choice will depend on what kind of capability it prioritizes — and how much political risk it is willing to assume. A deal with China could raise eyebrows in Washington and potentially trigger diplomatic friction or sanctions under laws like CAATSA (Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act).
Still, if reports about the J-10C’s performance are to be believed, Egypt might find it difficult to ignore the Chinese jet’s battlefield credibility.
The most explosive claims about the J-10C emerged from Pakistani defense sources and were amplified by several international outlets. According to these reports, Pakistani Air Force J-10C jets intercepted and downed at least one Indian Rafale during an attempted cross-border strike on May 6.
The British newspaper The Daily Telegraph published a speculative feature describing how “sleek and silent” J-10Cs, armed with Mach 5-capable PL-15 missiles, caught the Rafales by surprise. “The Spectra EW system, designed to protect it, was overwhelmed,” the piece claimed, suggesting that Indian pilots were blindsided by missiles guided not by traditional radar, but by AI-enhanced systems that made them virtually undetectable.
The article stated that one Rafale was destroyed mid-air while another returned severely damaged. In its most sensational claim, it said India grounded its entire Rafale fleet and withdrew them 300 km from the Line of Control after the incident.
India has not confirmed these losses, but it did announce a “strategic reassessment” of air force deployments. Furthermore, the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in a fiery public address days after the alleged incident, declared the completion of Operation Sindoor a “strategic success” without mentioning any setbacks.
As word spread of the J-10C’s apparent battlefield success, stock markets reacted. Shares of AVIC Chengdu Aircraft Corporation, the Chinese manufacturer of the J-10C, surged more than 60% in the week following the May 6 clash. Analysts attributed the jump to growing investor confidence in China’s military exports.
Conversely, Dassault Aviation, the French firm behind the Rafale, saw a 7% drop in share value amid questions about the aircraft’s survivability and the credibility of its much-hyped Spectra defensive suite.
However, AVIC’s rally was short-lived. Following PM Modi’s speech and growing criticism of the reports’ reliability, AVIC shares sharply corrected. Critics pointed out that no verifiable images, wreckage, or radar data had emerged to confirm the loss of Indian jets.
The implications of the alleged J-10C success are far-reaching. If true, it marks the first time a Chinese export fighter has defeated a front-line Western combat jet in a real engagement. That could shift procurement decisions across the Global South, where budget-conscious militaries often must choose between cost, capability, and political alignment.
For China, the J-10C’s potential validation is a milestone in its campaign to challenge U.S. air power hegemony. It also underscores Beijing’s ability to produce domestically developed systems that rival — and perhaps outperform — Western designs.
For India, the reports (even if unconfirmed) are a strategic and narrative setback. India had long touted the Rafale acquisition as a game-changer against both Pakistan and China. If one or more of these jets were shot down, it will invite questions about India’s air combat doctrines, deployment strategy, and the wisdom of relying on high-cost platforms in high-threat scenarios.
As of mid-May, no independent verification of the shootdowns has emerged. Indian defense analysts have cast doubt on Pakistan’s claims, pointing out that similar assertions were made after the Balakot strike in 2019 — many of which were later discredited.
Still, the story has taken on a life of its own. Whether or not the J-10C actually downed Indian Rafales, the global perception is already shifting. For China, perception might be as good as reality. For South Korea, it’s a commercial threat. And for Egypt, it’s a complicated decision: risk upsetting Washington by buying from China, or settle for a less capable aircraft that fits more neatly within its existing military structure.
