Europe is undergoing a seismic shift in defense and geopolitical alignment. With a continent still reeling from the shockwaves of the war in Ukraine, and growing uncertainty about long-term American reliability, the urgency to rearm and reassert strategic autonomy has reached a critical point.
Two parallel and deeply interconnected trends are shaping the future of European defense. First, European nations are increasing military budgets in response to mounting threats and a deteriorating global security landscape. Second, they are gradually exploring alternatives to U.S. military hardware—particularly fighter aircraft—to reduce dependency on Washington.
These dual forces have created a rare window of opportunity for global aerospace manufacturers. What was once a near-closed loop dominated by the U.S. is now showing cracks, inviting new players—France, China, and South Korea foremost among them—to stake their claim in the lucrative European fighter jet market.
The European Union’s ReArm Europe / Readiness 2030 plan, announced in March, aims to mobilize up to €800 billion ($872 billion) for defense modernization by the end of the decade. That announcement came on the heels of NATO’s upcoming summit where member states are expected to endorse a new defense spending target—5% of GDP, a dramatic rise from the current 2% target.
This injection of funds will primarily be channeled into acquiring new-generation fighter aircraft, missile systems, and electronic warfare capabilities. Countries like Poland, Portugal, Spain, and Italy are already exploring next-generation fighter platforms to replace aging fleets or complement existing ones. And it’s not just about defense—it’s also about political messaging: Europe wants to be seen as capable of defending itself, even without American boots or wings.
Amid this transformative moment, France is leading the charge for European self-reliance. At the 2025 Paris Air Show, President Emmanuel Macron reaffirmed France’s commitment to a more autonomous Europe, one less reliant on American defense guarantees.
The centerpiece of France’s campaign is Dassault Aviation’s Rafale fighter jet, a 4.5-generation aircraft that has become a symbol of Europe’s independent defense capability. Already in service with the French military and exported to Greece, Croatia, Egypt, and India, the Rafale offers high-end performance with political flexibility.
In Macron’s words, promoting the Rafale is not just about selling jets—it’s about building a Europe that can “defend itself, for itself, and by itself.” French defense officials also highlighted the aircraft’s compatibility with NATO standards and emphasized sovereignty in defense manufacturing, a critical factor for European buyers wary of becoming hostage to American export controls.
Despite Europe’s pivot, the Lockheed Martin F-35 remains the strongest contender in the European fighter market. Its stealth capabilities, interoperability with NATO systems, and entrenched presence—it’s already operated by 13 European countries—make it an attractive, albeit controversial, option.
Yet questions persist. The Trump administration’s shift of strategic focus from Europe to Asia, and its transactional approach to alliances, introduced a level of unpredictability in U.S. foreign policy. While the Biden administration has attempted to mend fences, uncertainty lingers in European capitals about America’s long-term commitment to European security.
According to Timothy Heath, a senior defense analyst at RAND Corporation, “There’s a general distrust in Europe regarding U.S. reliability. But that distrust doesn’t necessarily translate into immediate abandonment of American hardware, especially the F-35, which has become deeply embedded in European defense structures.”
In a move that surprised many, China’s National Aero-Technology Import & Export Corporation (CATIC) made a prominent appearance at the Paris Air Show. Displaying models of its fifth-generation J-20 stealth fighter, carrier-capable J-35A, and the 4.5-generation J-10CE, China signaled its ambition to compete globally—not just technologically, but commercially.
The J-10CE, in particular, has garnered attention following May’s controversial India-Pakistan air clash, where Pakistan claimed to have shot down three Indian Rafale jets. India has confirmed aircraft losses but has not specified which platforms were downed. Regardless of the fog of war, the incident gave Beijing a golden marketing opportunity.
Chinese defense experts point to the performance of the J-10 as proof that the technology gap with the West is narrowing rapidly. The J-20 and J-35—China’s answer to the F-22 and F-35—have further underscored this narrative. Moreover, China is already testing two sixth-generation jets, rumored to be named J-36 and J-50, potentially giving it a decisive lead over Europe in the next-generation airpower race.
However, despite their capabilities, Chinese aircraft face steep political headwinds in Europe.
“China is not viewed as a partner in Europe. It’s seen as a strategic competitor,” said Liselotte Odgaard, senior fellow at the Hudson Institute and professor at the Norwegian Institute for Defense Studies. “Fighter jet contracts are political decisions. Countries distrustful of the U.S. won’t necessarily pivot to China. They’ll look to France or South Korea instead.”
Enter South Korea—a U.S. ally that carries none of China’s strategic stigma. Its Korea Aerospace Industries (KAI) has rapidly grown into a formidable player in global defense exports, thanks to its FA-50 light fighter and the more advanced KF-21 Boramae, a 4.5-generation multirole aircraft designed with stealth in mind.
At the Paris Air Show, KAI was in aggressive mode. “We have already exported to Poland, and we are actively marketing the KF-21 to countries like Slovakia, Romania, and Bulgaria,” said Shin Dong-hak, KAI’s Vice President for International Business. He emphasized price competitiveness, flexible industrial cooperation, and technology transfer—value propositions that appeal strongly to cost-conscious Eastern European buyers.
KAI also showcased its UAV capabilities and hinted at developing its own sixth-generation fighter, potentially partnering with European defense firms.
“South Korea is perhaps the most important competitor to European defense firms,” said Timothy Heath. “They offer high performance, reasonable cost, and none of the political baggage that comes with buying from China or even the U.S.”
What makes South Korea especially attractive is its willingness to co-produce, co-develop, and invest in local defense ecosystems—something American and Chinese firms are rarely able or willing to offer.
“Local production and tech transfer are strategic for European nations looking to build sovereign defense capabilities,” said Odgaard. “South Korea’s flexibility in this regard is a major plus, particularly in Eastern and Central Europe.”
This strategy mirrors the successful model seen in South Korea’s K-9 Thunder howitzer program, which has been a smash hit across Europe. Countries like Poland, Norway, Finland, and Romania have placed large orders and even established local production facilities.
While China and the U.S. are operating fifth-generation jets, no European country has yet fielded one. Europe’s answer—the Future Combat Air System (FCAS), a joint Franco-German-Spanish project—is still in the research and prototype phase, with entry into service not expected before the late 2030s.
In the meantime, Dassault’s Rafale and the Eurofighter Typhoon are holding the line. But for how long?
“The lack of a European fifth-generation aircraft is a strategic vulnerability,” said a NATO official speaking on background. “It limits the alliance’s ability to interoperate at the highest level without relying on U.S. platforms.”
As for the sixth-generation race, South Korea has openly declared its ambitions, and China is already flying prototypes. The U.S. is well into its Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program. Europe is, once again, playing catch-up.
Europe’s defense dilemma boils down to three choices:
- Stick with the U.S.: Continue buying the F-35 and remain interoperable with NATO, at the cost of dependency and vulnerability to U.S. policy swings.
- Build with Europe: Double down on programs like FCAS and ramp up investment in platforms like Rafale to assert industrial and strategic sovereignty.
- Diversify with Asia: Embrace partnerships with non-Western but politically safe countries like South Korea to expand capabilities without ideological compromise.
The Rafale remains Europe’s most credible indigenous solution. The F-35 is still king of the skies, but for how long? Meanwhile, South Korea is carving out a niche, and China, while potent, is handicapped by political distrust.
The next five years will be decisive. Fighter jets are not just machines—they are expressions of sovereignty, alliances, and long-term strategic direction.
