In a move that signals a significant shift in global naval dynamics, Cuba’s Revolutionary Armed Forces Ministry announced on June 6 that a Russian nuclear-powered submarine, the Kazan, alongside three other naval vessels, will visit Havana next week. The flotilla, including the missile frigate Admiral Gorshkov, an oil tanker, and a salvage tug, is set to dock in the Cuban capital from June 12 to 17. This development follows statements from a senior US official on June 5, indicating that Russia plans to deploy battle vessels to the Caribbean this summer, potentially making port calls in Cuba and Venezuela.

“As part of Russia’s regular military exercises, we anticipate that this summer, Russia will conduct heightened naval and air activity near the United States. These actions will culminate in a global Russian naval exercise this fall,” the official stated. Despite the anticipated increase in Russian military presence, the US Navy has emphasized that these maneuvers, involving a few ships and aircraft, do not pose a direct threat to the United States.

The official explained that such deployments are part of routine naval activities and clarified, “We are not concerned by Russia’s deployments, which pose no direct threat to the United States. We are expecting that Russia will temporarily send combat naval vessels to the Caribbean region, and these ships will likely conduct port calls in Cuba and possibly Venezuela. There may also be some aircraft deployments or flights in the region.”

Intensified Military Activity Amid Global Tensions

The current geopolitical landscape, marked by heightened tensions between Russia and the West following the invasion of Ukraine, has seen a noticeable increase in Russian military activity globally. “This is about Russia showing that it’s still capable of some level of global power projection,” the official noted. However, the expenses associated with such deployments are considerable for the Russian Navy, which faces challenges in maintaining readiness and carrying out extensive deployments due to its aging fleet.

While Russia has not officially informed the US about these drills amidst the ongoing tensions, the US Navy has been actively monitoring the movement of Russian ships. In the realm of international waters, where no single nation holds sovereignty, military drills by any country, including Russia, are not uncommon. This scenario is comparable to the upcoming BALTOPS 24, a significant naval and aviation drill in the Baltic Sea, involving the US and nearly 20 other NATO states, in close proximity to Russia.

Russia has a history of conducting military exercises in various regions worldwide, even before the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. For instance, Russia conducted drills simulating the protection of the Arctic in 2022, a region where the US and other NATO states have significant interests. Additionally, in October 2022, Russia carried out naval drills in the Mediterranean Sea, and in the same year, it conducted joint war games in Venezuela. The Russian Pacific Fleet also held major naval drills off Siberia and near Alaska in the fall of 2022.

This upcoming deployment to the Caribbean, while not unprecedented, carries significant weight. It comes on the heels of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s pledge to respond with “asymmetrical steps” globally in reaction to US President Joe Biden’s decision to allow Ukraine to use US-supplied weapons to defend Kharkiv.

Strengthening Ties with Cuba and Venezuela

Russia’s bolstering of ties with Cuba and Venezuela, two Caribbean nations long at odds with the United States, is a critical aspect of this development. Cuba, notably, has refrained from joining the international sanctions against Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. Instead, the relationship between Cuba and Russia has strengthened since February 2022. Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel has openly criticized the sanctions, stating, “We are condemning, we are rejecting the expansion of NATO towards Russia’s borders.”

Economic cooperation between Cuba and Russia has also seen a new era, with initiatives aimed at enhancing bilateral ties. In July 2023, a Russian naval ship docked in Cuba, and currently, a Cuban delegation is visiting Russia to further these cooperative efforts. Cuban Deputy Prime Minister Ricardo Cabrisas Ruiz has reiterated Cuba’s reliance on Russian parliamentary support.

There have also been reports suggesting that Russia has been recruiting Cubans to fight in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine since the latter half of last year, further highlighting the deepening ties between the two nations.

Venezuela’s Solidarity with Russia

Venezuela, another ally of Russia in the Caribbean, has a longstanding cooperative relationship with Moscow. The Venezuelan government has consistently condemned what it terms as US interference in its domestic affairs. In 2019, the Russian Foreign Ministry warned against any foreign interference in Venezuela, including potential military action threatened by Washington.

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has frequently accused the West of trying to undermine Russia by exacerbating the conflict in Ukraine. He has described Western sanctions against Russia as “madness” and criticized Ukraine’s leadership as a “neo-fascist elite.”

In a show of solidarity, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov visited Venezuela in February this year during a Latin American tour that also included stops in Cuba and Brazil. Lavrov emphasized the importance of strengthening comprehensive cooperation between Russia and Venezuela, reinforcing their “unbreakable” friendship.

Lavrov also expressed Russia’s support for Venezuela’s bid to join BRICS, an organization comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, aimed at challenging the economic and political dominance of the US and Europe. “We are aware of the interest of our Venezuelan friends in rapprochement with BRICS. As chair of the association this year, Russia will contribute to this,” Lavrov stated during his visit.

US Concerns and Strategic Implications

The increasing military cooperation between Russia, Cuba, and Venezuela is unlikely to sit well with the United States, which views the Caribbean and Southern American regions as its traditional sphere of influence. The US considers these areas crucial for its national security and has historically been wary of any foreign military presence in these regions.

The presence of Russian naval forces in the Caribbean, particularly so close to US shores, could be seen as a provocative move by Moscow, intended to demonstrate its ability to project power globally and to respond to US actions in other parts of the world, particularly in Eastern Europe and the Arctic.

While the US has downplayed the immediate threat posed by the Russian naval deployments, the long-term strategic implications of increased Russian military activity in the Caribbean cannot be ignored. The situation necessitates a careful monitoring of Russian movements and a reassessment of US naval and military strategies in the region.

The arrival of the Kazan, a Russian Yasen-Class nuclear submarine, along with other naval vessels in Havana next week, marks a significant moment in international military affairs. This deployment underscores the deepening ties between Russia and Caribbean nations like Cuba and Venezuela, both of which have had strained relationships with the United States.

As Russia continues to flex its military muscles globally, the US must remain vigilant, ensuring that its strategic interests in the Caribbean and beyond are safeguarded. The developments over the next few months will likely shape the future of US-Russia relations and the broader geopolitical landscape.