- Copenhagen Rethinks Defense Strategy Amid Geopolitical Uncertainty
Denmark’s decision to significantly increase defense spending marks a historic shift in its military strategy, one driven by a dual threat: Russian aggression in Eastern Europe and uncertainty surrounding US commitment to NATO under President Donald Trump’s leadership. The move, which pushes Denmark’s defense budget beyond 3% of GDP for the first time in 50 years, reflects growing concerns among European nations that they may need to stand on their own against potential threats.
The increase in military funding comes in the wake of Trump’s recent policy reversals regarding Ukraine and NATO. His administration has distanced itself from Kyiv, challenging the long-standing principle of “nothing about Ukraine, without Ukraine.” Trump has blamed Ukraine for provoking Russia’s invasion and has signaled that NATO membership for Ukraine is not a priority.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s comments earlier this month reinforced this stance, stating that returning to Ukraine’s pre-2014 borders is “unrealistic” and that NATO membership for Kyiv is “not a realistic outcome of a negotiated settlement.” This has sent shockwaves across Europe, particularly in Denmark, which now recognizes the need to bolster its own defenses.
Denmark’s Defense Budget Hits 3.2% of GDP
Denmark’s new defense strategy includes a $7 billion Acceleration Fund, designed to fast-track military investments over the next two years. This will increase total defense spending to 3.2% of GDP, significantly surpassing the NATO target of 2%. In 2024, Denmark had already allocated 2.4% of its GDP to defense—above the NATO minimum but still insufficient in the face of emerging threats.
Danish Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen justified the sudden spending surge, citing intelligence assessments that Russia could become a direct threat to NATO countries within two years if European military capabilities do not keep pace. “Within two years, Russia could pose a credible threat to one or several NATO countries if NATO does not build up its own military power at the same rate as Russia,” Poulsen warned.
The Danish Defense Intelligence Service’s latest report echoes these concerns, arguing that if the war in Ukraine is frozen or ends, Russia would likely regroup and strengthen its military, making the Baltic Sea region vulnerable to aggression.
By 2033, Denmark aims to invest $120 billion in its defense sector, a sharp departure from decades of military cuts. This shift acknowledges Denmark’s previous neglect of its armed forces, which left the country with minimal air defenses and limited naval capabilities.
“Buy, Buy, Buy”: Denmark’s Military Overhaul
Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has taken a no-nonsense approach to military procurement, urging the defense establishment to “buy, buy, buy” in response to the growing security crisis. She emphasized that speed is now more important than perfection. “If we can’t get the best equipment, buy the next best. There’s only one thing that counts now, and that is speed,” Frederiksen declared.
This urgency reflects a broader shift in Europe’s strategic thinking, particularly among countries bordering Russia. Denmark’s increased military presence in the Arctic and North Atlantic—including investments in Arctic patrol ships and long-range drones—is intended to counterbalance Russia’s military activities in the region. These waters are also strategically vital, with Denmark controlling key shipping routes for Russian oil exports via the Baltic Sea.
Trump’s Greenland Interest Pushes Denmark to Defend Its Arctic Holdings
Denmark’s decision to ramp up Arctic security comes amid renewed US interest in Greenland, a semi-autonomous Danish territory. In January 2024, the Trump administration announced plans to expand its military presence on the island, raising alarms in Copenhagen. The following month, Prime Minister Frederiksen reiterated Denmark’s sovereignty over Greenland, rejecting any notion of selling the territory to the US—a topic that had gained attention during Trump’s first term.
Denmark’s $2.05 billion investment in Arctic security underscores its commitment to defending its strategic holdings. The expansion of Arctic patrols, deployment of drones, and reinforcement of naval defenses in the region are seen as direct responses to both Russian and American maneuvers in the region.
European Allies
Denmark is not alone in its military buildup. The uncertainty of US support in Europe has led several nations to announce historic increases in defense spending:
- Lithuania has pledged to increase defense spending to 5-6% of GDP by 2026, becoming the first NATO nation to align with Trump’s call for higher European military contributions.
- Latvia has approved a plan to raise its defense spending to 4% of GDP in 2025, with an eventual goal of 5%.
- Finland and other Baltic states have also escalated military investments, fearing that a US pivot toward the Indo-Pacific could leave them vulnerable to Russian aggression.
Denmark is also advocating for looser EU budget regulations to allow member states to finance their defense expansions. Historically frugal, Denmark has long maintained budget surpluses—holding the best fiscal balance in the EU since 2019—but Frederiksen acknowledges that this era of restraint is ending. She has even suggested the possibility of a war tax to finance the defense buildup.
A report from the free-market think tank CEPOS estimates that a war tax to support a 5% defense budget could cost the average Danish middle-class family 85,000 kroner ($11,927) per year.
Denmark’s “Danish Model” for Arming Ukraine
Denmark is also leading a new approach to supporting Ukraine’s defense sector. In 2023, Copenhagen and Kyiv developed the “Danish Model,” a strategy where European governments fund direct agreements between Ukrainian arms manufacturers and their government. This allows Ukraine to rapidly produce drones, long-range missiles, and other advanced weaponry without relying on the slow bureaucratic processes of Western suppliers.
Proponents of the Danish Model argue that it accelerates Ukraine’s rearmament while strengthening its domestic defense industry. This approach has drawn interest from other European nations struggling to scale up their arms production while meeting their own military needs.
Denmark’s dramatic shift in defense policy marks a significant turning point, not only for the country itself but for NATO and European security as a whole. The combination of Russian aggression, uncertainty over US commitment, and growing geopolitical tensions in the Arctic have forced Denmark to take military preparedness more seriously than at any time in the past 50 years.
The questions now are whether this shift is sustainable, whether other European nations will follow suit, and whether NATO can function effectively if the US continues its pivot away from Europe. As Denmark and its neighbors push forward with their defense expansions, one thing is clear: Europe is no longer willing to take its security for granted.
