The European Union (EU) is nearing the fulfillment of its commitment to supply Ukraine with one million artillery shells, a pledge that underscores the bloc’s support for Kyiv amidst its war with Russia. EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell confirmed the progress, revealing that over 980,000 rounds have already been delivered, with the target expected to be met by year-end.
“We have already delivered more than 980,000 rounds, and very soon, we will deliver one million rounds,” Borrell stated, acknowledging delays but emphasizing accelerated efforts in recent months. The initial deadline for this goal was March 2024, but setbacks postponed the achievement.
The delays in meeting the deadline were a point of concern for the EU, but the bloc has made substantial strides in recent months. “We committed to reaching this level by spring, and we failed. But by the end of the year, we will be able to,” Borrell added. He also projected an ambitious 1.5 million pieces of ammunition to be delivered by the end of 2024, a goal that includes bilateral supplies from individual EU states.
For instance, the Czech Republic committed to providing 800,000 shells to Ukraine in 2024, sourced from outside the EU. However, delivery has been slow. As of October, Ukraine had received only one-third of the 500,000 shells expected for the year, although Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala remains optimistic about fulfilling the promised figure by December.
The EU’s efforts complement significant contributions from the United States, which has supplied Ukraine with over three million 155mm shells since Russia’s invasion in February 2022, according to the US State Department. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s domestic production has undergone a remarkable transformation. Before the war, Ukraine produced almost no artillery shells. Now, under the guidance of its Minister of Strategic Industries, Herman Smetanin, Kyiv is producing millions of shells annually, including NATO-standard 155mm artillery shells suitable for Western howitzers.
Despite these substantial efforts, Ukraine frequently highlights shortages of ammunition. This raises a critical question: Where are millions of shells going, and how many does Ukraine need to sustain its war effort?
Ukraine’s artillery consumption contrasts sharply with Russia’s. NATO intelligence estimates suggest that Russia produced over 250,000 artillery rounds monthly in early 2023, a figure likely to have increased as Moscow continues its war-driven economic pivot. With annual production exceeding three million munitions, Russia outpaces the combined production capacity of the US and Europe, which stands at just 1.2 million rounds annually.
Russia’s robust production allows it to expend ammunition at a staggering rate. At the peak of its operations in April-May 2023, Russian forces reportedly fired 60,000 to 70,000 rounds per day, far surpassing Ukraine’s average of 2,000 rounds per day.
This disparity reflects not just production capacity but also the enduring influence of Russia’s Soviet-era military doctrine, which prioritizes heavy artillery as the cornerstone of war strategy. Russian tactics align with lessons from World War II, where artillery played a decisive role, famously dubbed by Joseph Stalin as the “god of war.”
In stark contrast, Western military strategy over the past several decades has deprioritized artillery in favor of air superiority and precision-guided munitions. This strategic choice has left NATO countries ill-prepared for the scale of artillery required in Ukraine.
As recently as 2016, the US produced fewer than 5,000 shells per month. By 2022, that number had climbed to 20,000 per month, but this was still insufficient to meet Ukraine’s needs. Recognizing this shortfall, President Joe Biden highlighted the urgency of modernizing ammunition production at the NATO summit in July 2023, describing it as a “rude awakening” for Western defense policy.
The consequences of artillery shortages for Ukraine have been dire. According to senior Ukrainian military officials, the availability of shells directly correlates with battlefield casualties. When Ukraine was firing 10,000 shells per day, daily casualties stood between 35 and 45 soldiers. When shellfire dropped to half that volume, casualties more than doubled to over 100 soldiers per day.
Artillery remains the dominant force in the Ukraine war, accounting for 80% of casualties on both sides, according to the Council on Foreign Relations. Unlike airpower, artillery can operate in all weather conditions, day and night, making it a critical element in the grinding war of attrition between Ukraine and Russia.
The Ukraine war has also revived tactics reminiscent of World War I, particularly trench warfare. Both Ukrainian and Russian forces have fortified defensive lines stretching hundreds of miles, mirroring the trench battles of the early 20th century.
“Ukrainians are rediscovering trench warfare and adopting tactics reminiscent of the German Sturmtruppen,” noted Thibault Fouillet, a defense expert from Lyon-III University. Modern technologies such as drones and air defense systems have altered some dynamics, but artillery and infantry remain central to battlefield outcomes.
Western nations are now urgently scaling up ammunition production. The US aims to produce 100,000 shells per month by the end of 2025, supported by a $6 billion congressional investment to expand munitions facilities. Similarly, Europe is enhancing its capacity to manufacture 155mm shells, with production expected to reach two million rounds annually.
Ukraine is also ramping up its domestic capabilities. In September 2023, Ukrainian officials announced the serial production of 155mm rounds, signaling a shift away from reliance on Soviet-era 152mm shells. Agreements with companies like Germany’s Rheinmetall further bolster Ukraine’s self-reliance in ammunition production.
Despite these efforts, Russia maintains a significant edge in munitions output. This advantage stems from its ability to prioritize artillery production over other defense investments, reflecting decades of strategic planning rooted in lessons from past conflicts. Remarkably, Moscow achieves this dominance with a defense budget of just $100 billion, compared to NATO’s combined defense spending of $1.47 trillion.
The Ukraine war has revealed the enduring importance of artillery in large-scale conventional conflicts. It serves as a stark reminder to NATO and EU states of the risks of neglecting munitions production in favor of more technologically advanced but less versatile weaponry. As the West and Ukraine work to close the production gap, the outcome of the war may ultimately hinge on which side can sustain its artillery fire longer.
