With the U.S. presidential election just days away, concerns intensify across Europe about a potential return of Donald Trump to the White House, as experts and officials voice unease about what his leadership might mean for NATO, Ukraine, and the global order.
European leaders are closely monitoring the U.S. election, particularly the possible re-election of former president Donald Trump on November 5, which they fear could signal a shift in the U.S. toward a more authoritarian stance, energizing right-wing populism across Europe and beyond. Trump’s foreign policy has raised concerns among Europe’s pro-democracy coalitions, who worry that his “America First” approach could undermine the continent’s stability.
“Trump has very clearly stated his preference for working with ‘strongman,’ Christian-leaning, anti-immigration leaders in Europe,” said Majda Ruge, senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR). This shift would not only bolster right-wing populist leaders on the continent but also embolden those who hold skeptical or antagonistic views toward the European Union (EU).
Already, Trump has found an ally in Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who openly endorsed his candidacy—a rarity among European leaders traditionally reluctant to weigh in on U.S. elections. Orbán’s endorsement of Trump is significant given Orbán’s prominence as a proponent of “illiberal democracy,” a governance style that pushes against EU norms, particularly concerning human rights, immigration, and LGBTQ+ issues. Addressing the European Parliament, Orbán revealed that he would “celebrate a Trump win with bottles of champagne.”
Another major worry in European capitals is that Trump could pressure Ukraine to concede territory to Russia, a move that would shake the foundation of European security and potentially embolden Russian expansionism. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Europe has stood united with the U.S. in providing extensive aid to Kyiv, both military and humanitarian. Trump’s stance on Ukraine has consistently diverged from the current U.S. administration’s approach, with his claims of being able to end the war “within 24 hours” raising doubts among European allies who fear he might compromise Ukraine’s sovereignty in favor of a quick peace deal that could reward Russia’s aggression.
Trump’s rhetoric on NATO has also stirred alarm. He has previously criticized NATO allies for not pulling their weight in defense spending, a viewpoint that he has threatened to act on by reducing U.S. involvement in the alliance if member states don’t meet financial targets. While laws restrict a president’s unilateral ability to withdraw from international alliances, experts say the U.S. could opt for a reduced presence, impacting NATO’s collective deterrence against threats from Russia and beyond. This stance has spurred European countries to consider how they might handle potential strategic realignments without traditional levels of U.S. support.
European leaders are also wary of the economic consequences of a Trump administration. The EU-U.S. trade relationship, valued at over $1 trillion annually, has faced turbulence before during Trump’s first term, when he imposed tariffs on European steel and aluminum. While these tariffs were later suspended under the Biden administration, that truce expires in March 2025, leaving the prospect of renewed trade tensions on the horizon.
Trump has hinted at potentially broadening tariffs to cover all goods imported into the U.S., with rates as high as 20%, a move that could significantly disrupt European industries, particularly those specializing in machinery, vehicles, and chemicals, which together accounted for nearly 70% of EU exports to the U.S. last year. Such an economic shift would compound pressure on an already strained EU economy facing inflation and energy insecurity.
Europe’s reaction to potential economic disruptions includes ongoing contingency planning, but such measures may be insufficient in the face of broader tariff implementations, which could heavily impact industrial sectors and disrupt supply chains vital to both economies.
European officials also worry that a renewed Trump administration would seek to rebalance U.S. foreign policy priorities toward competing with China, potentially at the expense of European security. Simon Diggins, a defense analyst, noted that the U.S. has expressed a desire to refocus resources on countering China, a strategy shift that could mean reduced involvement in Europe’s nearby regions, such as the Mediterranean and parts of Africa, which require stability efforts that Europe alone may not be able to sustain.
To counterbalance a possible reduction in U.S. support, European nations have been increasing their own defense spending. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has consistently encouraged member countries to meet defense spending targets, a measure that has gained traction as European countries increasingly recognize the importance of independent defense capabilities. However, the shift in U.S. attention could pose further challenges for Europe, which continues to grapple with a rising far-right influence in domestic politics, especially in countries such as Italy, France, and Germany.
Europe’s far-right political parties have seen a surge in support, fueled by populist sentiments that resonate with Trump’s America First approach. From France’s National Rally to Germany’s Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) and Italy’s Brothers of Italy, far-right politicians are gaining momentum, questioning European integration and endorsing stronger nationalistic policies.
Trump’s return could galvanize these movements, as leaders and their supporters see parallels between their platforms and Trump’s anti-immigration, nationalist stance. Notably, Hungary’s Orbán, who has garnered popularity for his stance against EU-mandated immigration policies, continues to promote what he dubs “illiberal democracy.” This model rejects liberal tenets central to the EU, promoting instead a brand of governance that emphasizes national sovereignty, religious conservatism, and opposition to multiculturalism.
Liana Fix, a fellow for Europe at the Council on Foreign Relations, noted that Hungary under Orbán would likely pivot toward strengthening bilateral ties with the U.S. in the event of a Trump victory, potentially leveraging that relationship to influence EU policy from within. Such a scenario raises concerns among other European leaders, who fear an erosion of EU cohesion should more member states begin to follow Orbán’s lead.
In anticipation of potential geopolitical shifts, the EU has taken proactive steps, including the establishment of a rapid reaction force. This strategic unit aims to respond swiftly to any abrupt policy changes from a new U.S. administration. Should Trump take office, the EU could find itself needing to recalibrate its approach to diplomacy, trade, and defense partnerships.
Efforts are also underway within the EU to reduce dependency on U.S. security guarantees. The European Defense Fund and the Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO) initiative underscore the EU’s commitment to strengthening its own defense capabilities. The bloc’s leaders are preparing for an uncertain future where the U.S. may not play as active a role in European security as it has historically.
Nevertheless, the EU faces challenges as it seeks greater independence in security matters. The scale of investment required to match U.S. capabilities and the continued reliance on American technology and logistics mean that any substantial shift toward European self-reliance would likely take years to implement effectively.
The possibility of a Trump return has exposed differing views within the EU, with some nations like Poland viewing Trump’s NATO policy favorably due to his strong stance against Russia, while others worry about the potential erosion of transatlantic ties. Poland has, in fact, increased its defense spending in anticipation of needing greater security assurances against Russian aggression, a view shared by other eastern EU nations close to Russia’s borders.
Meanwhile, countries such as Germany and France are more apprehensive about Trump’s approach to global alliances and trade policies, as they rely heavily on U.S. economic and security support. The dissonance among EU member states could complicate the bloc’s collective response if Trump resumes his America First agenda.
