In a sharply contested election that could shape Georgia’s future, the ruling Georgian Dream party has declared victory. Led by billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, Georgian Dream has taken a significant lead in preliminary vote counts, marking a critical moment for the South Caucasus nation’s European aspirations. However, opposition parties and international observers have raised serious concerns about the election’s integrity, pointing to widespread allegations of vote manipulation and voter intimidation.
As Georgia stands at a crossroads between European integration and closer ties with Russia, the results have ignited a political firestorm, with opposition leaders and observers claiming the election does not reflect the will of the people.
Georgia’s Central Election Commission (CEC) announced that with 72% of votes counted, Georgian Dream was leading with 53%. These preliminary results position the ruling party for another term, extending its 12-year hold on power. However, opposition parties, especially the pro-European United National Movement (UNM), dispute the legitimacy of the results. The UNM leader, Tina Bokuchava, denounced the preliminary outcomes, accusing Georgian Dream of election fraud and asserting that the ruling party “stole” the people’s vote.
“We do not accept the results of these falsified elections,” Bokuchava declared, alleging systematic efforts by Georgian Dream to undermine Georgia’s European path.
The division between initial exit polls and the preliminary vote count has fueled controversy. Exit polls conducted by Western pollsters Edison Research and HarrisX for pro-opposition channels projected Georgian Dream at around 41-42%, with the four pro-European opposition groups collectively winning between 48% and 52%. A competing poll for the government-aligned Imedi TV channel, however, indicated that Georgian Dream commanded a more robust 56% support, aligning closely with the CEC’s preliminary results.
Critics argue that the slow reporting of results, despite a new electronic vote-counting system, has only exacerbated doubts about transparency. Despite promises from the CEC to deliver 90% of the count within two hours of polls closing, only 72% of the vote had been counted by Sunday morning, raising concerns about potential manipulation. Dritan Nesho of HarrisX called for greater accountability, noting “a wide discrepancy” in precinct-level data.
Independent observers, including a coalition of 2,000 election monitors, My Vote, report numerous instances of voting irregularities, intimidation, and violence across the country. My Vote declared that given the widespread irregularities, the preliminary results could not reliably reflect the genuine will of the Georgian electorate. Observers documented cases of ballot stuffing inside polling stations, voter intimidation, and reports of beatings and coercion outside the polling sites.
In Marneuli, a town south of the capital Tbilisi, United National Movement official Azat Karimov claimed he was attacked by a Georgian Dream councillor and a group of around 10-20 men when his team attempted to investigate possible election tampering. Karimov reported that voters were being bribed and intimidated by ruling party supporters to influence their choices.
Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili, known for her pro-Western stance, issued a public appeal to opposition supporters to remain calm and not be intimidated. In a live broadcast, she urged voters to stay strong despite the psychological pressure they might face.
The opposition framed this election as a decisive moment for Georgia’s future, with implications for the nation’s long-term orientation toward either European integration or a closer alignment with Russia. Georgia achieved candidate status for EU membership last December, though its progress has since been stalled due to concerns about “democratic backsliding,” including a controversial “foreign influence” law. This legislation, which targets organizations receiving Western funding, was criticized by the EU as resembling restrictive Russian policies.
For many in Georgia, the election’s outcome is viewed as pivotal. Levan Benidze, a 36-year-old opposition voter, expressed his conviction that the election could determine Georgia’s geopolitical future, describing it as “a turning point” despite potential risks from Russia.
Georgian Dream has pledged continued efforts toward EU membership but also espouses a “pragmatic” stance on relations with Russia. This approach has led to accusations from opposition parties that Georgian Dream seeks to undermine Georgia’s EU candidacy, potentially steering the nation back into Russia’s sphere of influence. Ivanishvili’s rhetoric has grown increasingly nationalistic, with Georgian Dream casting itself as a “party of peace” against a so-called “global war party” that he claims could involve Georgia in the Ukraine conflict.
For many Georgian Dream supporters, this message resonates. At a polling station in Kojori, south-west of Tbilisi, 55-year-old Tinatin Gvelesiani echoed these sentiments, stating that her vote for Georgian Dream was motivated by a desire for stability and peace.
The political landscape in Georgia remains fraught with the legacy of the 2008 war with Russia, during which Russian forces seized and retained control of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, regions amounting to 20% of Georgia’s territory. Georgian Dream has promised not to provoke Moscow, a position which some analysts believe aligns with Russian strategic interests in the region.
Nika Gvaramia, a prominent opposition leader, accused Georgian Dream of orchestrating a “constitutional coup.” Gvaramia claims the ruling party’s manipulation of election laws and control over the electoral process has pushed the country toward authoritarianism. Georgian Dream’s consolidation of power, achieved partly through constitutional amendments that critics say lack proper oversight, has heightened tensions within the country.
Georgia’s new proportional representation system was intended to distribute seats in parliament more equitably. However, with opposition parties collectively reaching only 38% of the preliminary vote, the new system appears to have bolstered Georgian Dream’s hold on the legislative body, making it difficult for rival parties to challenge the ruling party’s dominance.
In the weeks leading up to the election, both Georgian Dream and the opposition accused each other of colluding with foreign powers. The government has suggested that Western countries, particularly the United States, are backing the opposition to create another front in the conflict with Russia. Georgian Dream leaders claim the opposition is beholden to “foreign agents” and that its victory would jeopardize Georgian sovereignty.
At the same time, the opposition accused Moscow of meddling in the election through a disinformation campaign designed to influence voters. Georgian civil society groups have reported a surge in Russian disinformation, portraying opposition leaders as warmongers and dissuading voters from supporting European-oriented parties. Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) chief Sergei Naryshkin accused the United States of instigating a “Color Revolution” in Georgia, claims that the opposition dismisses as propaganda.
The election has prompted concern among Western allies, many of whom see Georgia as a key partner in the South Caucasus. Western governments have expressed support for democratic principles in Georgia and have warned against any actions that could undermine the integrity of the electoral process. The European Union and the United States have indicated they are closely monitoring the situation and have called for transparency and impartiality from Georgian authorities.
Georgia’s path forward remains uncertain, as opposition leaders signal their determination to contest the results. Tina Bokuchava has urged her supporters not to allow what she described as “the theft” of Georgia’s European future, hinting at potential mass protests. Observers predict that prolonged political instability could affect Georgia’s EU candidacy and overall relations with the West.
