In a landmark election, Georgian voters are deciding whether to end more than a decade of Georgian Dream (GD) party rule, in a choice that could significantly alter the South Caucasus nation’s direction and its path towards joining the European Union (EU). This vote, widely seen as the most consequential since Georgia declared independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, is being touted by pro-European groups as a potential turning point. Pro-Western President Salome Zourabichvili highlighted the stakes as she cast her ballot, emphasizing her vision for a “new Georgia.”
The election has set the stage for an intense battle between the ruling Georgian Dream party and a coalition of opposition parties that aim to unseat GD and revive Georgia’s stalled EU integration process. The opposition groups, hoping to overcome GD’s entrenched power structure, are rallying to meet the 5% threshold required to enter parliament, raising hopes among supporters for a coalition government that could lead to snap elections and new legislation supporting EU accession.
A desire for EU membership has long been a priority for Georgia, where polls indicate that around 80% of Georgians back joining the EU. However, the nation’s bid was frozen earlier this year due to accusations of democratic backsliding and the adoption of a Russia-style “foreign agent” law. The controversial legislation, which mandates organizations receiving more than 20% of their funding from foreign sources to register as “foreign agents,” drew sharp criticism from the EU and led to street protests across the country. Many Georgians view it as an attack on democracy, fearing it could hinder the nation’s pro-European aspirations and align it closer with Russia, a concern heightened by Georgia’s proximity to Ukraine, which remains embroiled in conflict with Russia.
The EU candidacy freeze has added urgency to the opposition’s campaign, with President Zourabichvili supporting a coalition government that, if successful, pledges to roll back laws perceived as obstructive to EU accession and democratic reforms. Zourabichvili’s advocacy underscores her opposition to GD’s political maneuvers, which she argues have steered the country away from European values and towards authoritarianism.
Since 2012, GD has wielded considerable power under the influence of its founder, billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili. Although Ivanishvili has no official role in the government, he is seen as the key figure behind the party’s strategic direction, including its stance on foreign policy and relations with Russia. His grip on the nation’s politics has sparked criticism from opposition leaders, who argue that his shadow influence has stymied progress toward Western integration and democratic reform.
As GD seeks a fourth term, Ivanishvili has hinted at drastic measures to maintain control, including banning the main opposition party, the United National Movement (UNM), if GD wins a significant majority. Critics see this move as a dangerous consolidation of power, while supporters of the governing party argue it’s necessary to preserve stability in the face of what they view as a potentially destabilizing opposition.
GD has centered its campaign on a message of stability, portraying the opposition as a threat to peace. Party billboards display stark images of war-torn Ukrainian cities contrasted with serene Georgian landscapes, underscoring the party’s slogan, “No to war! Choose peace.” GD claims that an opposition victory would destabilize Georgia by drawing it into Russia’s sphere of conflict, while a GD victory would preserve tranquility.
In contrast, the opposition, led by figures like Tina Bokuchava of UNM, insists that a change in government is essential to break from authoritarianism and reignite Georgia’s EU membership aspirations. According to Bokuchava, the election presents voters with a clear choice between embracing European values or succumbing to isolation and authoritarian rule under GD.
Reports of election misconduct, including alleged voter intimidation and disinformation, have added to the contentious atmosphere. International observers and local watchdogs like the International Society for Fair Elections and Democracy have documented instances of voter intimidation, including ID card confiscations and threats to voters’ employment. Aleksandre, a voter in a village near Tbilisi, reported being pressured by a local GD official to support the party under threat of job loss.
GD leadership denies these claims, touting recent reforms that implement electronic vote counting to ensure transparency. Maka Bochorishvili, head of GD’s EU integration committee, argues that opposition parties habitually challenge GD’s legitimacy to undermine its governance. “All this speculation about forcing people to vote is baseless. In the voting booth, people have complete freedom,” Bochorishvili contends.
Yet, critics question the transparency of the new electronic voting system, noting that rushed implementation may have left voters uneasy about ballot secrecy. Additionally, some opposition leaders point to a surge in Russia-sponsored disinformation campaigns that portray Georgia’s pro-European bloc as agents of instability, echoing narratives used by Russian state media.
While the majority of Georgians favor EU membership, support is not evenly distributed across the country. In smaller towns like Kaspi, closer to the border with Russia, GD’s message of peace resonates with older and rural populations wary of the potential for conflict. “I don’t like Georgian Dream, but I hate the United National Movement,” said one resident, expressing a desire for stability over potential EU integration.
For younger and urban voters, the promise of EU membership and the economic and social reforms it entails are more appealing. The EU is seen as a gateway to economic opportunity, modernization, and enhanced rule of law—a stark contrast to the authoritarian tendencies perceived under GD.
Georgia’s election has captured international attention due to its potential implications for the broader region. The EU, wary of increasing authoritarianism, issued a pre-election statement condemning actions by GD that appear to limit freedoms and reduce transparency. The EU expressed concern over the “foreign agent” law and warned that Georgia’s trajectory may affect future support and assistance.
Human rights groups have echoed these warnings, pointing to the treatment of activists like Vano Chkhikvadze from the Civil Society Foundation, who faced threats and harassment after being labeled a “state traitor” by Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze. Such instances of political repression have added urgency to the opposition’s platform of democratization and alignment with EU principles.
With polls predicting GD as the likely front-runner, a coalition government led by the opposition remains a long shot. However, even if GD wins the majority, the deepening polarization may exacerbate unrest, as opposition supporters are unlikely to accept defeat without resistance. Both GD and opposition leaders have prepared for post-election disputes, heightening the risk of instability regardless of the outcome.
If the opposition coalition succeeds, they plan to institute a technocratic government to manage the transition, reverse controversial laws, and call for fresh elections. Yet this prospect is fraught with challenges, as GD has indicated it will not easily cede power and may use its resources to contest the legitimacy of the coalition.
As the day progresses and votes are tallied, Georgia’s path to the EU—and its internal peace—remain at stake. For many Georgians, this election is not just a political contest but a reflection of the national identity and the values they wish to uphold. For Georgian Dream, this vote represents the potential for continued influence and the power to shape the country’s future in line with its own vision.
The opposition and its supporters, today’s election is about reclaiming Georgia’s democratic institutions and steering it closer to Europe—a step they believe is critical to ensuring both prosperity and long-term security in the region. With polling stations set to close at 16:00 GMT, the results will either usher in a new era of governance or extend GD’s rule, setting Georgia’s course for years to come. The international community is watching closely, aware that the outcome may have repercussions not only for Georgia but for the fragile geopolitical balance in the Caucasus.
