India is reportedly on the verge of finalizing a landmark deal with France to procure 114 Rafale F4 fighter jets, a move that could significantly reshape the Indian Air Force’s (IAF) combat capabilities. Defence sources indicate that this acquisition may eventually expand, potentially bringing the total Rafale inventory close to 200 aircraft, reinforcing India’s long-term airpower strategy.
The proposed expansion aligns with the IAF’s broader objective of increasing its sanctioned strength from 42 to 50 squadrons, aimed at maintaining readiness for simultaneous operations along the western border with Pakistan and the northern frontier with China. With each squadron typically comprising 18 aircraft, a 50-squadron force would require a frontline fleet of approximately 900 combat jets, excluding training and reserve units.
Currently, the IAF operates 36 Rafale jets, while the Indian Navy has ordered 26 Rafale M fighters. The confirmed combined fleet of 62 aircraft would rise to 176 once the 114-jet MRFA contract is finalized. Reports suggest that an additional tranche of around 50 jets could be considered in the future, enabling the IAF to sustain the envisioned 50-squadron structure despite upcoming retirements. This would make India one of the largest Rafale operators globally.
The Defence Procurement Board (DPB) reportedly cleared the proposal for the 114 jets in January 2026, marking a critical procedural step before Cabinet approval. Officials say the drive for a larger fleet is rooted in the IAF’s evolving threat perception, emphasizing the need for high readiness across both western and northern fronts.
This strategic push coincides with a major transition phase for the IAF, as several legacy platforms approach retirement. The Jaguar deep-strike fleet is slated for phased retirement by 2035, while the MiG-29UPG fighters are expected to exit service in the late 2030s. The versatile Mirage 2000 fleet will likely retire between 2038 and 2040. These aircraft currently provide critical air defence and strike capabilities, and their departure will create a significant capability gap that new-generation platforms like the Rafale and the indigenous Tejas Mk2 are expected to fill.
The medium-weight segment of the IAF is projected to be defined by a mix of Rafale and Tejas Mk2 aircraft by the late 2030s. Tejas Mk2 production is scheduled to begin around 2033, with major inductions post-2035. While current projections estimate an order of 120 jets, operational requirements could drive this number higher. Rafale F4 deliveries are expected to commence from 2030, with around 80 aircraft in service by 2035 and the potential to reach 200 jets by 2040 if follow-on orders are approved.
Meanwhile, the heavy-weight segment will continue to rely on the Su-30MKI fleet, which is undergoing the ‘Super Sukhoi’ upgrade program to integrate advanced radars and electronic warfare systems. In the long term, India’s indigenous Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) Mk1, the nation’s fifth-generation stealth fighter, will gradually replace the oldest Su-30MKIs. The AMCA is expected to enter service around 2033–2034, but significant numbers are projected only after 2035.
What began as an emergency acquisition of 36 jets has now evolved into a long-term strategic partnership with France. In an era of network-centric warfare and sophisticated air defence systems, the IAF is banking on the Rafale’s advanced sensor fusion, survivability, and long-range strike capabilities.
If the deal proceeds as indicated, the Rafale will move beyond being a temporary solution to become the cornerstone of India’s air dominance strategy for decades, ensuring that the IAF maintains a qualitative edge in the region amid evolving threats.
