As the dust settles over northern Pakistan and western India following the Indian Air Force’s (IAF) blistering four-day aerial campaign—Operation Sindoor—from May 7 to May 10, 2025, the subcontinent remains gripped by conflicting claims, contested narratives, and growing regional unease.
Touted by India as a decisive demonstration of air superiority, Operation Sindoor marked one of the most expansive and technologically complex air assaults in South Asia since the Kargil War of 1999. Yet, even as India trumpets operational success, independent analyses—most notably by the UK-based defence publication Air Forces Monthly—cast doubt over the scale of destruction claimed by Indian authorities.
According to the Indian Ministry of Defence (MoD), Operation Sindoor aimed to neutralize Pakistan’s offensive air capabilities through a series of surgical strikes on high-value targets spread across 11 of Pakistan’s 13 operational airbases. The mission was launched after intelligence suggested a build-up of Pakistani aerial assets near the Line of Control (LoC) and missile movements near key strategic corridors in Punjab and Balochistan.
India deployed its full spectrum of airpower: Rafale F4.2 fighters equipped with METEOR BVR missiles and SCALP-EG cruise missiles, Su-30MKIs armed with BrahMos-A standoff weapons, and Tejas Mk1A jets flown in strike and EW roles. Long-endurance drones and ISR aircraft, including the Netra AEW&C and Heron TP UAVs, provided deep battlefield awareness.
The doctrinal shift in the operation was unmistakable—prioritizing deep-strike precision engagement and electronic warfare saturation over attrition warfare. According to Indian officials, the focus was on:
- Destroying hardened aircraft shelters (HAS)
- Crippling runways and taxiways
- Neutralizing airborne early-warning aircraft
- Disrupting command-and-control networks
- Degrading radar and fuel infrastructure
A senior Air Marshal, speaking on condition of anonymity, called it “India’s most coordinated demonstration of integrated air-space dominance using both indigenous and imported systems.”
Despite India’s confident tone, the actual effectiveness of Operation Sindoor has become the subject of fierce debate.
In a major rebuke to Indian claims, Air Forces Monthly reported that the “only confirmed aircraft damage” sustained by Pakistan during the operation was to a single C-130 Hercules transport aircraft stationed at Nur Khan Airbase near Rawalpindi.
This assessment directly contradicts Indian reports claiming the destruction of:
- Up to nine Pakistani aircraft, including JF-17s, Mirage-Vs, J-7s, and F-16s.
- Two Saab Erieye AEW&C aircraft, one reportedly hit on the tarmac, the other downed by an S-400 near Dinga.
- Multiple drones, some downed by IAF fighters, others intercepted via Indian air defence grids (S-400, SPYDER, and Akash).
The MoD released several pieces of footage—including wreckage from what it claimed was a PAF Mirage—and satellite images suggesting extensive cratering on runways and burnt-out hangars.
However, Pakistan’s Inter Services Public Relations (ISPR) countered swiftly, stating: “No frontline fighters or AEW&C systems were lost. Indian claims are speculative, exaggerated, and motivated by domestic political optics.”
While both militaries traded accusations, a disturbing human cost emerged.
Pakistan’s ISPR confirmed that 13 military personnel were killed, including five at the strategically vital Bholari Airbase, one at Mushaf, and six more during aerial engagements. More gravely, 40 civilians reportedly died when Indian missile strikes hit areas adjacent to or within proximity of airbases.
Among the worst-affected installations, according to Pakistan:
- Bholari Airbase (Sindh): Home to PAF’s long-range strike aircraft and rapid deployment squadrons.
- Mushaf Airbase (Sargodha): A linchpin of Pakistan’s command and control, known to host JF-17s and ISR platforms.
- Nur Khan Airbase (Rawalpindi): A major logistics hub supporting strategic airlift and transport missions.
Though ISPR confirmed structural damage at these facilities—including collapsed hangars and scorched runways—it emphasized that “combat readiness remains intact” and that dispersal protocols had minimized aircraft losses.
Pakistan claimed to have mounted an aggressive retaliatory response, launching its own airstrikes across border sectors and initiating aerial dogfights over Punjab and Jammu. According to ISPR, Pakistani pilots:
- Downed six Indian aircraft: Three Rafales, one Su-30MKI, one MiG-29, and one Mirage 2000.
- Inflicted electronic jamming damage on Indian communications infrastructure.
- Penetrated 40 km into Indian airspace before returning unharmed.
India rejected these assertions as “entirely unsubstantiated,” stating that only one aircraft was lost—without revealing the type or squadron.
“Pakistan’s claims are propaganda designed for internal consumption and international sympathy,” an Indian Air Force official told India Today, adding that all IAF platforms returned safely except for one pilot who ejected over Indian territory.
Independent open-source intelligence (OSINT) analysts have attempted to arbitrate between these claims using commercial satellite imagery and social media data. Their findings are inconclusive but offer some clarity:
- Imagery from May 11 and 12 showed runway damage and craters at Chaklala, Mushaf, and Masroor airbases.
- At least two hangars were visibly destroyed at Nur Khan.
- However, no high-resolution proof of aircraft wreckage or AEW&C losses has been verified independently.
- Drone imagery from India’s border areas indicated intercepted UAV debris, but its origin could not be definitively linked to PAF.
According to Janes Defence Weekly, “The fog of electronic warfare, misinformation, and high-velocity operations makes it almost impossible to provide immediate clarity on the actual air losses sustained.”
Operation Sindoor marks a significant evolution in Indian military strategy. Defence planners note a marked shift toward:
- Long-range precision strikes using cruise missiles and guided bombs.
- Joint air and missile defence integration, showcasing synergy between Rafale strikes and S-400 shield deployments.
- Domestic force multipliers, such as LCA Tejas Mk1A and Indian-made combat drones (Tapas-BH1, Archer-NG).
Moreover, the operation saw battlefield deployment of artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled ISR systems and satellite-guided targeting via the GSAT-7A military communications satellite.
“This is a leap toward autonomous precision warfare,” said Lt. Gen. R. Sundaram (Retd.), a defence strategist. “It sends a strong message to adversaries and partners alike.”
The operation has not gone unnoticed globally.
China, while maintaining a neutral tone, expressed “serious concern” about the safety of CPEC-linked infrastructure in Gwadar and northern Balochistan, some of which lies close to the airbases struck.
The United States urged both sides to show “utmost restraint” and de-escalate through diplomatic channels. State Department officials were reportedly in backdoor talks with both New Delhi and Islamabad.
Russia refrained from taking sides but called for “immediate regional dialogue to prevent the use of strategic weapons.”
France, a key supplier of India’s Rafales, expressed support for “India’s right to self-defence” while stopping short of endorsing its operational claims.
Meanwhile, Turkey and Iran have called for a UN-mediated investigation, especially in light of civilian casualties and airspace violations near their borders.
The aftermath of Operation Sindoor raises more questions than answers.
Will Pakistan retaliate again? – With its surveillance capability allegedly degraded, Pakistan may turn to asymmetric or cyber strategies.
Will India preempt further threats? – Reports suggest the IAF has maintained high alert status, and additional squadrons have been moved closer to the border.
What about escalation control? – Both nations are nuclear powers, and while none of the strikes targeted nuclear infrastructure, there is deep unease about the thresholds being tested.
Regional realignments? – China and Turkey may be drawn deeper into Pakistan’s defence matrix, while India may push for expedited deliveries of F4.3 Rafale upgrades, Israeli drones, and more S-400 units.
Operation Sindoor may ultimately be remembered less for its tactical gains than for what it reveals about modern conflict in South Asia—an uneasy blend of high-tech weaponry, competing narratives, rapid escalation, and fragile deterrence.
While India claims a successful demonstration of air dominance, the absence of verified independent corroboration leaves open a crucial question: Did the operation truly degrade Pakistan’s combat capabilities, or did it merely showcase India’s intent and capacity for escalation?
