Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent visit to war-ravaged Ukraine, the first by an Indian leader since its independence, marks a crucial moment in India’s foreign policy landscape. Coming just weeks after Modi’s much-discussed visit to Russia, where he warmly embraced President Vladimir Putin, this move underscores India’s intricate balancing act between rival global powers. The meetings in Kyiv aimed to strengthen bilateral cooperation and advocate for peace, with Modi and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s symbolic hug serving as a diplomatic counterpoint to Modi’s embrace of Putin.

The timing of Modi’s visit is significant. It occurs against the backdrop of an increasingly complex Russia-Ukraine war, which has drawn international scrutiny and widened geopolitical rifts. The West, in particular, has been critical of India’s perceived proximity to Russia, especially given New Delhi’s continued oil imports from Moscow despite global sanctions. This visit, therefore, serves as a strategic maneuver by India to demonstrate its neutrality and commitment to maintaining balanced relationships with both Russia and the West.

India’s Balanced Approach: Strategic Neutrality and Geopolitical Opportunism

India’s diplomatic messaging during this visit was clear: New Delhi maintains substantive ties with both Russia and Ukraine, and these relationships are not mutually exclusive. By engaging with both nations, India seeks to showcase that its foreign policy decisions are based on national interests and not beholden to any single power bloc.

This balanced approach has not been without its critics, particularly from the West, who view India’s stance on the Russia-Ukraine conflict with skepticism. India has refrained from outright condemning Russia’s actions, opting instead to call for a peaceful resolution and respect for territorial integrity. This nuanced position has drawn criticism, especially in light of India’s increasing oil imports from Russia, which have been perceived as tacit support for Moscow. However, New Delhi’s strategic imperatives go beyond immediate alignments and are shaped by a long-standing relationship with Russia, characterized by trust, shared interests, and deep defense ties.

India-Russia Relations

Russia remains a key pillar of India’s foreign policy, serving as a major supplier of military hardware, accounting for around 60% of India’s defense imports. The two countries share a deep-rooted historical trust, with collaborations spanning various sectors, including defense, energy, and technology. India’s strategic dependence on Russia, particularly for military equipment, has been a driving factor behind its careful diplomatic stance.

Furthermore, the burgeoning relationship between Russia and China presents another layer of complexity. The possibility of a new geopolitical axis comprising Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea is seen as a counterbalance to Western influence. For India, maintaining a strong relationship with Russia helps ensure that Moscow does not drift entirely into Beijing’s orbit, which could pose strategic challenges, especially in the context of India’s ongoing border disputes with China.

India’s Evolving Relationship with West

On the other hand, India’s relationship with the United States and other Western nations has been on an upward trajectory, marked by growing cooperation in military, economic, and technological spheres. The shared concerns over China’s assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific region have brought New Delhi and Washington closer. The two nations have engaged in numerous bilateral and multilateral initiatives, underscoring their mutual interests in maintaining regional stability and security.

India’s foreign policy acumen lies in its ability to balance these strategic relationships, minimizing contradictions and maximizing cooperation. By engaging with both Russia and the West, India aims to uphold its strategic autonomy and project itself as a key player in the global order.

Kyiv Visit

Modi’s visit to Kyiv serves as a reflection of India’s foreign policy contours, where divergent and convergent national interests are managed through a pragmatic approach. India’s engagement with Ukraine highlights its commitment to multi-partnerships in a multilateral world order. The visit sends a clear message that India is willing to partner with Ukraine and the West without abandoning its long-standing ties with Russia.

The optics of Modi’s Kyiv visit, coming on the heels of his meeting with Putin, are particularly significant. Zelenskyy, who had expressed concerns over Modi’s cordial relations with Putin, viewed the visit as a reassurance of India’s commitment to peace. The gesture signifies that India is not aligned with any single camp but rather seeks to maintain a balanced approach that reflects its national interests.

India-Ukraine Relations

Although not as deep-rooted as India’s ties with Russia, India-Ukraine relations hold their own significance. Ukraine is home to a sizable Indian student diaspora and has been a key trade partner for India. In the fiscal year 2021-22, bilateral trade between the two countries amounted to approximately $3.4 billion, placing Ukraine among India’s top 50 trading partners.

Moreover, Ukraine has played a vital role in supplying defense equipment, technology, and ammunition to India. The Indian Air Force’s emergency procurement of R-27 air-to-air missiles from Ukraine during the Balakot strike against Pakistan in 2019 is a testament to the defense cooperation between the two nations. As India moves towards self-reliance in defense through the ‘Atmanirbhar Bharat’ initiative, it still relies on Ukraine for critical defense supplies in the interim.

Hypothesis of India as a Mediator

Given India’s influence over both Russia and Ukraine, there has been speculation about its potential role as a mediator in the conflict. However, India has been cautious in taking on such a role due to the complexities involved and the lack of willingness from both parties to engage in dialogue. While Modi has emphasized the need for a peaceful resolution through dialogue and diplomacy, he has stopped short of offering concrete mediation efforts.

The stalemate between Russia and Ukraine further complicates any potential mediation. Ukraine has made it clear that it will not negotiate until Russian troops withdraw from its territory, while Russia has declared certain Ukrainian regions as part of its territory, making any compromise difficult. As a result, India’s role in mediating peace remains limited for now, with its focus primarily on advocating for dialogue and humanitarian assistance.

Western Perspective: Symbolism or Substance?

From a Western perspective, Modi’s visit to Kyiv is seen as largely symbolic, signaling India’s willingness to engage with Ukraine and, by extension, the West. It also serves as a counterbalance to India’s ties with Russia, showcasing New Delhi’s strategic autonomy. By engaging with both Russia and Ukraine, India aims to avoid the global isolation and sanctions that have impacted other nations with close ties to Moscow.

However, some Western analysts view Modi’s visit as a gesture to appease the West rather than a genuine effort to support Ukraine. They argue that the visit is more about reinforcing India’s strategic interests and asserting its independent foreign policy stance rather than making a substantial impact on the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Domestically, Modi’s visit to Kyiv is likely to be seen as a move that aligns with India’s strategic interests. By engaging with both Russia and Ukraine, Modi projects an image of India as a nation that prioritizes its national interests and maintains strategic autonomy. This visit also underscores India’s commitment to diversifying its relationships and reducing dependencies on any single nation.

India’s imports of Russian weapons have seen a decline in recent years, with New Delhi increasingly turning to countries like the United States, France, and Israel for defense supplies. This diversification strategy is part of India’s broader efforts to enhance its strategic autonomy and reduce dependence on traditional allies.

The immediate impact of Modi’s visit to Ukraine may be more symbolic than substantive. It demonstrates India’s willingness to engage with all parties in the conflict and maintain a balanced approach. However, it is unlikely to result in any dramatic shifts in India’s relationship with Russia or Ukraine or alter the course of the ongoing war.

One potential area of future cooperation could be in the reconstruction of Ukraine, which has been devastated by the conflict. India has experience in reconstruction efforts, having contributed significantly to rebuilding Afghanistan. However, Indian investment in Ukraine is likely to depend on the restoration of peace and stability in the region.

For Russia, Modi’s visit serves as a reminder that India’s foreign policy is driven by its national interests and that New Delhi is not willing to be drawn into any single camp. Russia will need to navigate the contradictions of India’s ties with the US and Ukraine, just as India understands the nuances of Russia’s relationships with China and North Korea.

For Ukraine and the West, the visit signals that India is open to engagement and could potentially play a role in future peace efforts. It reaffirms India’s stance as a nation that upholds strategic autonomy while seeking to further its national interests.

Prime Minister Modi’s visit to Ukraine represents a significant chapter in India’s foreign policy narrative, highlighting its ability to navigate complex geopolitical landscapes. By engaging with both Russia and Ukraine, India seeks to balance its strategic relationships, uphold its national interests, and project itself as a key player in the global arena.

The visit underscores India’s commitment to multi-partnerships in a multilateral world order, where it can engage with all major powers without being drawn into any single camp. As India continues to diversify its relationships and reduce dependencies, its approach to the Russia-Ukraine conflict will be closely watched by the international community.

In a world marked by shifting alliances and evolving power dynamics, India’s strategic balancing act is a testament to its diplomatic acumen and its pursuit of a peaceful, multipolar world order.