A senior Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) official has voiced concerns over Turkey’s potential military build-up in Syria, specifically at key air bases that could significantly shift regional power dynamics. Ankara negotiates a security agreement with Damascus, raising fears of an impending confrontation between Israel and Turkey.
“The establishment of a Turkish Air Force base in Palmyra, Syria, could heighten regional tensions and increase the risk of conflict with Israel,” said the IDF official, speaking anonymously due to the sensitivity of military matters. “Given Israel’s ongoing efforts to prevent hostile military entrenchment in Syria, any significant Turkish military presence, especially in strategic locations like Palmyra, could be perceived as a threat to Israeli security interests.”
Israel has consistently launched airstrikes on Syrian military infrastructure to counter Iranian influence and the expansion of other hostile forces. Just this week, Israeli airstrikes targeted military installations, including the T-4 airbase near Palmyra, a site historically linked to Iran’s military presence in Syria.
“The Israeli Air Intelligence Group had been monitoring weapons and strategic capabilities at these sites over the past several months,” the IDF official said. The strikes resulted in what sources described as “extensive” damage, aimed at preserving Israel’s aerial superiority in the region.
Israel has repeatedly emphasized that it will not allow any foreign military presence that could endanger its air dominance or regional security. With Turkey now seemingly expanding its footprint in Syria, Israeli military leaders are assessing how this development could alter existing security calculations.
Turkey has been steadily increasing its military presence in northern and central Syria. According to the Syrian North Press Agency, Turkish forces have begun constructing a military base inside Menagh Military Airbase in northern Aleppo province. The reported goal is to turn the airbase into a fully operational air defense center, reinforcing Turkey’s military position in Syria.
“Turkish forces have started transporting large amounts of concrete slabs and logistical materials into Menagh Military Airbase to establish an air defense center,” a source told North Press Agency. Additionally, Turkey is rumored to be building another base near the town of Manbij.
While Israel and Turkey have had an up-and-down relationship over the years, tensions have surged recently. A brief diplomatic thaw in September 2023 disintegrated as Israel’s war against Hamas intensified. The growing friction is occurring as both nations seek to influence Syria’s post-Assad power structure.
Israel is expanding its influence in southern Syria, while Turkey is moving to consolidate control in the north, west, and now central parts of the country. Turkey backs several militant groups in Syria and has conducted airstrikes against U.S.-allied Kurdish forces, further complicating the regional landscape.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan recently warned against foreign interference in Syria, seemingly directed at Israel. “Those seeking to benefit from Syria’s instability will not succeed,” he stated. “We will not allow them to divide Syria as they imagine.”
Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu convened a high-level cabinet meeting this week to discuss the increasing tensions with Turkey. Netanyahu has framed a confrontation with Ankara as inevitable.
Israel’s military superiority in the region is well established, with advanced fighter jets, air defense systems, and a highly trained, battle-hardened army. However, Turkey also possesses a formidable military, including upgraded F-16C/D fighters, advanced drones, modern tanks, and sophisticated air defense systems. If Turkey establishes permanent air bases in Syria, its warplanes would be in closer proximity to Israel, potentially altering the balance of power.
A key concern for Israel is that Turkey might deploy advanced air defense systems, making Syrian airspace less accessible for Israeli operations. Moreover, a well-fortified Turkish presence in Syria would allow Ankara to support allied ground forces more effectively, challenging Israel’s ability to strike its adversaries at will.
The escalating tensions between Israel and Turkey place the United States in a precarious position. Turkey is a NATO member, while Israel is one of Washington’s closest allies. If conflict were to erupt, the U.S. would face the challenge of balancing its commitments to both countries.
While former President Donald Trump stated his unequivocal support for Israel, a direct confrontation between Turkey and Israel could strain Washington’s diplomatic and military partnerships in the Middle East.
Beyond the direct implications for Israel and Turkey, a Turkish military buildup in Syria could complicate U.S. and coalition operations against ISIS. American forces have relied on Syrian airspace to conduct strikes against jihadist targets, but a stronger Turkish military presence could lead to restrictions on U.S. operations.
Additionally, Turkey’s actions could provoke a reaction from Russia, which remains a major power broker in Syria. Moscow has maintained close relations with Ankara, but an expanded Turkish military presence could disrupt the existing balance of power in the region.
Despite growing concerns, military leaders on both sides have not ruled out diplomatic resolutions. Turkey and Israel have engaged in secret backchannel discussions in the past, and some analysts believe that economic ties—such as energy cooperation—could provide incentives for de-escalation.
However, with Erdogan facing domestic political pressures and Netanyahu grappling with both legal troubles and military conflicts on multiple fronts, some analysts fear that both leaders might escalate tensions for political gain.
As the situation evolves, Israel will continue to monitor Turkey’s military moves in Syria closely. Whether through deterrence, diplomacy, or direct action, Jerusalem is determined to prevent any military developments that could threaten its security interests.
