The ongoing conflict in Gaza has resulted in the deaths of over 22,000 Palestinians and 1,200 Israelis, with 85% of Gazans displaced and a quarter facing a famine. The conflict has a long way to run and may be headed towards stalemate. Israel has failed to achieve its primary war aims, such as the destruction of Hamas and freedom for the remaining 240 Israelis taken hostage on October 7.
Hamas fighters continue to use tunnel network to ambush Israeli soldiers and fire rockets, with 27 fired at the start of the new year compared to 3,000 in October 7. Around 130 Israelis are still held hostage, and only one hostage has been freed by the Israeli Defence Forces. Israeli society is divided between prioritizing negotiations to release the hostages and the elimination of Hamas. Israel achieved a symbolic success with the apparent targeted killing of Hamas deputy leader Saleh al-Arouri in Beirut on January 2. However, the two Gaza-based Hamas leaders Israel most wants to eliminate, political leader Yahya Sinwar and military leader Mohammed Deif, remain at large.
Israel still has US support in the UN Security Council, but the Biden administration is pressuring Israel to change its tactics to minimize Palestinian casualties. The Israeli government is divided on how Gaza should be run after the fighting stops, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu refusing to accept Gaza remaining “Hamastan” (Hamas-controlled) or becoming “Fatahstan” (ruled by the Palestinian Authority, dominated by the secular Fatah party).
US President Joe Biden supports a Gaza government led by a reformed Palestinian Authority, but Netanyahu has rejected this. Defense Minister Yoav Gallant proposed an unspecified Palestinian governance plan, which has been criticized by hard-right ministers. Israel’s bombing campaign has turned international opinion against it, and internal divisions hinder its prosecution of the war. Hamas remains standing, with Israel claiming to have killed or captured between 8,000 and 9,000 of its 30,000-strong fighting force.
Hamas’ attack on October 7 has pushed the Palestinian issue to the top of the Middle East agenda, with citizens in Arab states that have signed peace agreements with Israel angry. An Israeli-Saudi agreement to normalize relations between the countries is off the table for now. Opinion polling shows support for Hamas has risen from 12% to 44% in the West Bank and from 38% to 42% in Gaza in the past three months. If fair Palestinian elections could be held now, they could produce results Israel and the US would not like.
The US has shown weakness in dealing with Israel, with Secretary of State Antony Blinken failing to persuade Israel to end the war by the start of the new year. Divisions in the US may hurt Biden in the lead-up to the presidential election in November, as young, college-educated progressives have taken part in demonstrations against Biden’s public support for Israel’s right to defend itself. These progressives may stay home on election day, handing the election to Trump.
US support for Ukraine has become a casualty of the war, with Republicans prioritizing Israel and stopping migrants across the US-Mexico border. This shift benefits Russian President Vladimir Putin and will be reinforced if Trump wins the presidency again. The UN has failed to maintain world peace, with the only Security Council resolution on the war meaning nothing. The recent UN General Assembly resolution demonstrates Israel’s growing isolation but has not changed the course of the war.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has been powerless to influence Israel or Hamas. Iran is watching for opportunities, with Hezbollah militant group Hezbollah taking orders from Tehran, which shows no sign of wanting to become directly involved in the war. Iran appears to have no problem with its proxies providing token support for Hamas through limited rocket, drone, and artillery attacks. The bombings at the tomb of former Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani last week likely reinforced Iran’s focus on internal security rather than assisting Hamas.
