Following a decisive victory in Lithuania’s parliamentary elections, the opposition Social Democratic Party has pledged a dramatic increase in security and defense funding, with the potential to exceed 3.5% of GDP. This move aligns with the party’s firm stance on countering Russian influence and supporting Ukraine, positioning the Baltic nation as one of NATO’s most committed defense spenders.
Social Democrat leader Vilija Blinkevičiūtė, an MEP and a key figure in the center-left party, confirmed the pledge on Monday, underscoring Lithuania’s defense priorities amid heightened regional tensions. “Our election manifesto says it should be not less than 3.5% [of GDP], and this is unavoidable,” Blinkevičiūtė stated, emphasizing that defense will be a non-negotiable priority under her party’s leadership.
Lithuania, a member of the European Union and NATO, shares a 275-kilometer (179-mile) border with Russia and has remained a vocal critic of Moscow’s aggressive policies. Under the current conservative-led government, Lithuania has supported Kyiv with both funds and resources, a stance Blinkevičiūtė promised would continue under the Social Democrats.
Recent surveys reveal that nearly 75% of Lithuania’s 2.8 million citizens are concerned about a potential Russian invasion, an anxiety echoed throughout the Baltic region following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Since joining NATO in 2004, Lithuania has steadily increased its defense spending, dedicating approximately 3% of GDP to security. With the Social Democrats in power, this figure may soon rise to further cement Lithuania’s status as a defense-heavy state.
While Lithuania’s economy is relatively small, the country has still emerged as a top contributor to Ukrainian aid in proportion to its GDP, ranking among the top three EU supporters of Ukraine according to the Kiel Institute in Germany. This commitment to defense, even amid potential budgetary constraints, illustrates the Baltic state’s strategic priorities in the face of Russia’s proximity and perceived threat.
After winning 52 seats in the 141-member parliament, the Social Democrats are expected to form a coalition with the center-left Union of Democrats “For Lithuania” and the Lithuanian Farmers and Greens Union, aiming for a slender majority of 74 seats. However, analysts have cautioned that a coalition with such a thin margin may be fragile, especially in the long term.
The center-right Homeland Union – Lithuanian Christian Democrats, led by outgoing Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė and foreign minister Gabrielius Landsbergis, secured 28 seats in this election, placing second. Landsbergis announced his resignation following the results. While the Social Democrats initially considered the addition of a new nationalist party, Nemunas Dawn, to their coalition, the idea was later dismissed due to controversies surrounding the party’s leader, Remigijus Zemaitaitis, who faces charges of inciting hatred over alleged antisemitic comments, which he denies.
Continuity and Change in Lithuanian Foreign Policy
Lithuania’s outgoing conservative-led government had taken a firm stance against Russia, actively supporting Ukraine both financially and diplomatically. The Social Democrats are likely to maintain this commitment to Ukrainian aid, even as they shift their focus to bolstering internal defense mechanisms. For many Lithuanians, this emphasis on national security is both practical and symbolic, reinforcing Lithuania’s role as a defender of European borders.
“There’s no question of weakening our support for Ukraine or backing down on Russian sanctions,” Blinkevičiūtė said, aiming to reassure Lithuanian allies in NATO and the EU. Many international observers see Lithuania’s commitment to defense as an expression of solidarity with neighboring Baltic states and a necessary counterbalance to Russia’s influence.
The Lithuanian election comes amid Bulgaria’s seventh parliamentary election in four years, held on the same day. Unlike Lithuania, Bulgaria has been mired in political gridlock, unable to form a stable government since 2021, when anti-corruption protests unseated former Prime Minister Boyko Borissov’s cabinet.
The center-right GERB party, led by Borissov, emerged as the leading party with 26.5% of the vote, promising compromise and cooperation with various political factions, except for the ultra-nationalist, pro-Russian Vazrazhdane (Revival) party. However, the fragmented nature of Bulgaria’s parliament, which now includes nine different parties, poses significant challenges for forming a viable coalition.
“We will work together with everyone except Revival,” Borissov stated on Monday, signaling a willingness to work across party lines to stabilize Bulgaria’s political landscape. However, political analysts warn that GERB may face difficulties assembling a coalition, given the growing polarization within the Bulgarian parliament.
With six unsuccessful attempts at government formation over the past four years, Bulgaria faces ongoing uncertainty. The political deadlock has delayed essential EU funding for infrastructure and pushed back Bulgaria’s plans to join the eurozone twice. A recent poll indicated that nearly 60% of Bulgarians feel deeply concerned by the deadlock, and although turnout rose slightly to 38% in this election, it remains low, reflecting widespread voter disillusionment.
Bulgaria’s political turmoil has had economic repercussions, particularly as the nation grapples with crumbling infrastructure, rising inflation, and stagnant wages. Although Borissov’s victory could grant him a mandate to attempt his fourth administration, the lack of significant change in parliamentary composition may result in yet another electoral cycle without a sustainable government.
Both Lithuania and Bulgaria face unique challenges. While Lithuania’s Social Democrats appear poised to push for unprecedented defense spending and strengthen the nation’s security, Bulgaria continues to struggle with achieving political stability. These contrasting paths underscore the varied political landscapes within the European Union, where different nations confront distinct security and governance issues.
In Lithuania, the Social Democrats’ commitment to raising defense spending signals a proactive approach to security in response to Russia’s aggressive posture. This approach aligns with the Baltic nation’s recent efforts to fortify its military presence and modernize defense capabilities, often collaborating with NATO allies for joint exercises and strategic planning.
Conversely, Bulgaria’s repeated election cycles reflect a deep-seated struggle to establish a stable government and implement effective governance. While Lithuania’s challenges revolve around external threats, Bulgaria’s are largely internal, with political fragmentation impeding the country’s ability to address pressing economic and social issues.
The evolving political landscapes in Lithuania and Bulgaria could influence broader EU policy directions, particularly in security and defense. Lithuania’s aggressive spending plan may inspire other EU nations, particularly those in Eastern Europe, to re-evaluate their defense budgets. The Baltic state’s staunch support of Ukraine and firm opposition to Russian aggression resonates with neighboring countries, potentially setting a precedent for higher NATO spending across the region.
For Bulgaria, continued political uncertainty could have longer-term implications for EU integration, including delayed funding allocations and postponed eurozone membership. The EU’s role in assisting Bulgaria’s political and economic stability could prove crucial, as prolonged instability risks impeding collective progress on issues such as regional infrastructure projects, digital transformation, and energy security.
The juxtaposition of Lithuania’s decisive moves on defense and Bulgaria’s political paralysis illustrates the complexity of maintaining unity within the European Union. As Lithuania focuses on reinforcing its NATO commitments, Bulgaria’s internal struggles highlight the need for stronger EU mechanisms to support member states facing governance challenges.
While Lithuania’s Social Democrats prioritize strengthening national security, Bulgaria’s path to stability remains uncertain. The contrasting political directions of these two countries serve as a reminder of the multifaceted challenges facing the EU in a time of geopolitical volatility.
