In the midst of a political crisis in France, President Emmanuel Macron’s two-day trip to Serbia carries significant implications, both economically and geopolitically. Macron’s primary objective is to secure a lucrative deal to sell Rafale fighter jets to Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić’s government. The potential contract, worth an estimated €3 billion, would provide a much-needed diplomatic win for France, boosting its defense industry and strengthening its influence in the Balkans. However, this deal raises complex questions about Serbia’s ties with Russia and its alignment with European values.
Despite the lack of confirmation on the number of aircraft involved, the French government expressed optimism about the negotiations. A successful sale would mark a significant victory for Dassault Aviation, the French company behind the Rafale jets, following a similar deal with Croatia in 2021. Macron’s administration is positioning this as a strategic partnership, emphasizing Serbia’s choice to collaborate with a European nation to modernize its military capabilities. This shift could be interpreted as a move to bring Serbia closer to the European fold, distancing it from its historical ties with Russia.
However, Serbia’s demonstrated closeness with Moscow, especially following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, complicates the narrative. The country has maintained a balancing act between the West and Russia, conducting joint military exercises with Russian forces and refusing to impose European sanctions on Moscow. This stance has sparked concern within the European Union, raising questions about Serbia’s true geopolitical loyalties. The proposed sale of French jets to Serbia highlights the delicate balance that European nations must maintain when dealing with countries that have strong ties to Russia.
Serbia has been an official candidate for European Union membership since 2013. However, its progress has been marred by issues related to corruption, organized crime, and the suppression of press freedom. The European Commission’s 2023 report criticized Serbia’s limited advancements in these areas, pointing out ongoing cases of threats, intimidation, hate speech, and violence against journalists. Vučić’s administration, despite these issues, has found a key ally in France, which sees strategic benefits in maintaining a close relationship with Serbia.
Macron’s visit also underscores the importance of the Ohrid agreements, which aim to normalize relations between Serbia and its neighbor, Kosovo. Although these agreements were reached in early 2023, their implementation remains stalled. France views Serbia’s involvement in these talks as a step toward regional stability, and this perceived progress is one of the reasons Paris has continued to support Vučić’s government. However, the lack of concrete outcomes from these agreements suggests that Serbia’s commitment to European integration remains ambiguous.
Serbia’s strategic centrality in the Balkans has increased in recent years, partly due to its role as a mediator in regional conflicts. Although Serbia supported a United Nations resolution condemning Russia’s actions in Ukraine, it has simultaneously resisted fully aligning with European foreign policy by not sanctioning Russia. This balancing act illustrates Serbia’s desire to maintain its autonomy while reaping the benefits of both European and Russian alliances.
France, along with other European countries, has been hesitant to criticize Serbia’s authoritarian tendencies too harshly, fearing that pushing Belgrade too far might drive it closer to Russia. Serbia has welcomed multiple Russian delegations and reciprocated with visits to Moscow, indicating its ongoing diplomatic engagement with Russia. Vučić’s statements have often reflected a nuanced position that stops short of outright condemnation of Russian actions, further complicating Serbia’s relationships with its Western partners.
Beyond military and diplomatic considerations, Serbia’s natural resources, particularly its large lithium deposits, attract significant interest from European capitals. The extraction of lithium, crucial for electric vehicle batteries, represents a strategic opportunity for Europe to enhance its energy independence and technological capabilities. Serbia’s interest in the Trepca mining complex and the northern region of Kosovo, rich in valuable minerals, adds another layer of complexity to its geopolitical importance.
In July, the visit of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to Belgrade marked a significant step in Serbia’s partnership with the EU, focusing on the development of lithium extraction and battery production. The agreement signed in Belgrade aims to leverage Serbia’s natural resources to benefit European industries, highlighting the economic and strategic interdependence between Serbia and the EU. This partnership, however, raises concerns about the ethical implications of prioritizing economic interests over democratic principles and environmental sustainability.
The contentious issue of lithium mining in Serbia has sparked widespread public protests. Serbian citizens have voiced strong opposition to the proposed opening of a lithium mine by Rio Tinto in the Jadar Valley, citing potential environmental damage. In response to these protests, the Serbian government initially revoked Rio Tinto’s licenses in 2022, only to announce a resumption of the partnership in June 2023, claiming new guarantees had been secured. The public’s resistance underscores the tension between economic development and environmental protection in Serbia.
Environmental groups in Serbia have reached out to Macron, urging him to support their cause and advocate for sustainable development practices. In a letter addressed to the French President, they highlighted the need for Europe to offer partnerships that prioritize environmental and social responsibility over exploitation. Despite these appeals, Macron’s administration has stated that decisions regarding the lithium mine are solely within Serbia’s jurisdiction, signaling France’s reluctance to interfere in Serbia’s internal affairs.
The demonstrations against the lithium mining project have continued throughout the summer, with tens of thousands of Serbians taking to the streets. These protests reflect the growing awareness and activism around environmental issues in Serbia, challenging the government’s priorities. As Serbia navigates its path between economic development, environmental sustainability, and political alignment, the actions of its leadership will have significant implications for its future relationship with Europe.
Macron’s visit to Serbia, therefore, is not merely about securing a defense contract but also about navigating a complex web of diplomatic, economic, and environmental issues. The success of the Rafale jet sale would bolster France’s defense industry and enhance its strategic influence in the Balkans. However, this potential success must be weighed against the ethical considerations of engaging with a regime that has shown authoritarian tendencies and has close ties with Russia.
Macron’s diplomatic efforts in Serbia highlight the broader challenges facing European leaders as they seek to promote stability and prosperity in a region fraught with historical tensions and competing interests. Balancing economic opportunities with the promotion of democratic values and human rights remains a delicate task. As France deepens its ties with Serbia, it must carefully consider the long-term implications of its alliances and the message it sends about Europe’s commitment to democratic principles and sustainable development.
