French Prime Minister Michel Barnier has achieved a major symbolic victory by surpassing the brief 49-day tenure of former British Prime Minister Liz Truss, whose rapid political demise became an international punchline involving a head of lettuce. Truss’s downfall in 2022 became synonymous with short-lived leadership, and Barnier’s surpassing this milestone has spurred French media and political pundits to assess the staying power and governing style of a man once seen as merely a placeholder.
Barnier’s endurance marks a surprising success, as few expected the conservative former Brexit negotiator to last this long given the coalition tensions and opposition his administration faces. Appointed by French President Emmanuel Macron in early September, Barnier’s government has managed to avoid collapse, thanks partly to reluctant support from conservative factions and the unspoken influence of far-right leader Marine Le Pen. However, as Barnier strives to make his mark through a classic, understated style of leadership, it remains to be seen whether he can steer France through the turbulence of an unpopular budget, parliamentary discord, and mounting public unrest.
When Macron appointed Barnier, a 73-year-old political veteran, the decision shocked many. As a former EU chief Brexit negotiator, Barnier’s resume exudes experience, but he is also considered somewhat removed from the energetic style that defines Macron’s own political approach. Macron sought Barnier as a compromise candidate to appease conservative lawmakers and placate a fractured centrist coalition. Early in his tenure, political analysts predicted that Barnier would face mounting opposition from both the far-left and far-right parties within parliament, effectively trapping him in a power struggle that could end his term prematurely.
“In the early days, we thought it was only a matter of time,” said Charles Dubois, a political analyst with the Paris-based think tank, Institut Montaigne. “It seemed Barnier would become the victim of a government coalition too diverse and divisive to hold.”
Adding to the drama is the National Rally’s Marine Le Pen, who has wielded considerable influence over Barnier’s fate. Le Pen’s alliance has had the power to destabilize Barnier’s administration but has opted to bide its time. Many speculate that Le Pen is waiting to exploit any missteps from Barnier’s government, allowing him just enough leeway to make unpopular decisions that might drive the public toward her populist platform.
Barnier’s tenure is distinctive not just for his survival but for his old-school approach to governance. In contrast to Macron’s dynamic style, or the brash, high-energy style of leaders like U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, Barnier’s reserved manner reflects a bygone era of politics. Known among critics as “Babar” — a nickname that references the iconic elephant in French children’s literature — Barnier’s deliberate, somewhat stiff presence has drawn both criticism and admiration.
In his speeches, Barnier often invokes phrases from his native Savoie region, and he appears unfazed by political rivals’ labeling of him as “fossilized.” His supporters, however, argue that his steady approach is precisely what France needs in a time of escalating fiscal challenges and political instability.
“He doesn’t spark enthusiasm, but I don’t think people want to be enthused; they want to be reassured,” remarked an anonymous member of Macron’s coalition.
Even Barnier’s style of dress — long, flappy jackets instead of the tailored suits typical of Macron’s “startup nation” generation — symbolizes his resistance to modern political pageantry. To a segment of French voters disillusioned with flashy politicians, this return to tradition has come as a welcome shift, a signal that Barnier might be more focused on the job than on self-promotion.
However, Barnier’s government is not merely coasting on style; his administration has taken decisive steps to tackle France’s budget deficit, much to the ire of various factions. One of Barnier’s immediate priorities has been to push through an austere 2025 budget, which seeks to impose €40 billion in spending cuts and €20 billion in tax hikes. This tough approach is aimed at reducing France’s budget deficit in compliance with European Union rules, an ambitious goal given the country’s growing debt.
Yet Barnier’s austerity measures have met with fierce resistance from both left-wing and far-right lawmakers who argue that the proposed cuts unfairly target vulnerable populations. Social services and subsidies face significant cutbacks, while new taxes could impact middle-income earners, sparking discontent among Barnier’s conservative base and intensifying opposition from the far left.
The budget is a potential deal-breaker for Barnier’s coalition. The National Assembly, France’s lower parliamentary house, is bitterly divided, with opposition parties preparing to challenge the budget aggressively. A no-confidence vote looms, set for December, and Barnier’s government may have to rely on support from France’s Senate, which leans toward the right, to avoid a collapse.
As Barnier maneuvers through these challenges, one crucial player in his survival game remains Marine Le Pen. With her significant sway in the National Assembly, Le Pen has the power to bring down Barnier’s government, yet she has chosen not to wield it — at least for now. This unusual restraint has led to speculation about her motives. Some analysts believe she is keeping Barnier in power to further alienate his conservative base, paving her path to electoral success in the next national election.
Currently, Le Pen is preoccupied with a high-profile trial that could threaten her own political future. But once her legal issues settle, she may reassess her support for Barnier, particularly if his administration’s actions become too politically unpalatable. Le Pen’s decision is pivotal: she could either cast her lot with Barnier’s government, albeit reluctantly, or use her influence to bring it down, plunging France into a fresh political crisis.
Public sentiment toward Barnier remains tepid but not hostile. According to recent opinion polls, Barnier holds an approval rating of 37%, significantly higher than Macron’s 25%. Despite his increasing unpopularity, particularly over his fiscal policies, Barnier’s approval rating suggests that his quiet, conservative demeanor is resonating, to some degree, with voters.
Barnier’s frugality has further defined his image, as he often opts to walk to his appointments rather than rely on the traditional perks of the prime ministerial office. He has also declined residence at the official Matignon Palace, a gesture that some observers interpret as a sign of solidarity with average French citizens amid economic hardship. Yet critics dismiss this modesty as symbolic, arguing that his budget proposals would impose real hardships on low- and middle-income families.
“His austerity message has been firm but so far feels too theoretical for most,” noted Sylvie Perrin, a political commentator for Le Monde. “The impact of his cuts hasn’t hit home yet, but it will soon, and that’s when we’ll see if he can maintain even this lukewarm support.”
December could be a defining month for Barnier. If the budget fails to pass or if a no-confidence motion topples his administration, Barnier may become a mere footnote in French political history — a “dinosaur” leader whose tenure did little to advance Macron’s ambitious agenda or stabilize France’s economy. Yet if he manages to pass the budget and navigate the perilous parliamentary waters, he could prove to be a stabilizing force in an otherwise turbulent time.
The December vote will also be a test of Le Pen’s strategy. If she decides to support Barnier, she could secure a more prominent role in shaping policy from the sidelines. But if she chooses to vote against him, she risks pushing France toward political uncertainty — a scenario that could either strengthen her anti-establishment appeal or backfire, painting her as a destabilizing force in the eyes of the electorate.
