Moldova faces a pivotal presidential runoff election that could define its geopolitical orientation for years to come On November 3. The contest pits incumbent President Maia Sandu, a strong advocate for European Union (EU) integration, against Alexandr Stoianoglo, a former prosecutor general with backing from the pro-Russian Party of Socialists.
The stakes extend beyond Moldova’s borders, with the West and Russia closely watching the outcome as part of a larger struggle for influence in Eastern Europe. In the same vein, neighboring Georgia has recently experienced its own tumultuous elections, raising questions about Russian influence and democratic legitimacy in the region.
As Moldova prepares for this decisive vote, the country finds itself at a crossroads between East and West, echoing similar dynamics in other Eastern European nations caught between aspirations for EU integration and the pull of historic ties to Moscow.
President Maia Sandu, a Harvard-educated former World Bank official, has led Moldova with a clear pro-European stance, particularly since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 intensified her administration’s commitment to EU alignment. Her primary opponent, Alexandr Stoianoglo, is supported by Moldova’s pro-Russian factions and has seen his popularity grow unexpectedly in recent weeks. In the first round of voting on October 20, Sandu won 42% of the vote, while Stoianoglo surged to 26%, significantly higher than his initially projected support of 10%.
This surge, analysts argue, may reflect a growing domestic frustration with Sandu’s policies amid economic hardship and concerns about foreign interference from Russia. On the same ballot, Moldovans narrowly passed a referendum making EU membership a national goal. Yet, this measure passed with only 50.46% support, far below the 60% predicted by earlier polls, revealing a divided national sentiment on European integration.
The election period has been fraught with allegations of foreign interference, particularly from Russia. Sandu’s administration has accused Russia-linked actors of orchestrating an extensive vote-buying scheme to manipulate the outcome. Moldovan officials allege that Russian-backed oligarch Ilan Shor aimed to sway nearly 300,000 voters—approximately 10% of Moldova’s population—in favor of a pro-Russian candidate and against the EU referendum. According to government reports, this alleged scheme represents an “unprecedented assault” on Moldovan democracy. Russia and Shor have denied these allegations, but the accusations have added tension to an already contentious race.
Following the referendum’s narrow passage, Sandu remarked, “We fought fairly in an unfair fight—and we won.” Nevertheless, concerns remain over possible interference in the runoff vote. During a heated final debate on October 27, Sandu accused Stoianoglo of being a “Trojan Horse” for the Kremlin, implying that his leadership would threaten Moldova’s sovereignty and democratic trajectory.
In contrast, Stoianoglo’s supporters argue that Sandu’s administration has imposed significant economic hardships on ordinary Moldovans by reducing ties with Russia, which previously provided Moldova with discounted energy. Although Sandu succeeded in decreasing Moldova’s reliance on Russian gas, her policies have contributed to rising inflation, further straining low-income households. Critics also point to the timing of the EU referendum, which was scheduled alongside the presidential vote, as evidence of Sandu’s strategy to position herself as the only candidate capable of leading Moldova toward the EU.
The outcome of Moldova’s election holds substantial implications not only for the country itself but also for the broader region, as the world looks on. A win for Sandu would signify Moldova’s continued pivot toward the EU, a move that aligns with the aspirations of many Moldovan citizens despite the economic challenges it may entail. Conversely, a victory for Stoianoglo could pull the country back towards Moscow, aligning it with other recent pro-Russian shifts in Eastern Europe.
For the West, Moldova’s strategic location and recent pro-European leanings make it a key player in the geopolitical contest between NATO and Russia. Conversely, Moscow views Moldova’s growing ties to the EU as a threat to its sphere of influence, which it has sought to maintain through various forms of economic and political leverage.
Moldova’s situation echoes similar challenges in Georgia, where recent elections resulted in a decisive victory for the pro-Russian Georgian Dream party. The October parliamentary elections saw Georgian Dream secure 54% of the vote, a result that dashed the opposition’s hopes for forming a pro-Western coalition. This outcome has hindered Georgia’s EU integration efforts, sparking significant internal and international concern.
Georgia’s pro-European President, Salome Zourabichvili, has openly rejected the election results, claiming they lack legitimacy and accusing the pro-Russian Georgian Dream party of manipulating the election process. Although the Georgian presidency is a largely ceremonial role, Zourabichvili’s opposition has drawn international attention, particularly from Western nations like the United States. President Joe Biden recently expressed concerns about what he described as the decline in democratic standards in Georgia, echoing the EU’s decision to suspend the country’s membership bid over similar concerns.
The recent political developments in Moldova and Georgia illustrate a broader trend in Eastern Europe, where Western democracies and Russia continue to exert influence over the region’s political trajectories. For the West, supporting pro-European leaders like Sandu in Moldova and opposition forces in Georgia is essential to maintaining a democratic buffer against Russian expansionism. Conversely, Russia is determined to keep these countries within its sphere of influence, often leveraging economic dependencies and political support for pro-Russian candidates to achieve its goals.
In Moldova, Sandu’s administration has faced significant criticism for the economic repercussions of its pro-European stance, a vulnerability that pro-Russian forces have seized upon to rally support. Similarly, in Georgia, the Georgian Dream party’s alignment with Russia has intensified local opposition and international scrutiny, underscoring the complexity of maintaining democratic standards amid external pressures.
As Moldova heads into the November 3 runoff, public sentiment remains deeply divided. Supporters of Sandu view her as a courageous leader who has stood up to Russian influence while working to integrate Moldova with the EU, despite the economic costs. On the other hand, Stoianoglo’s supporters see him as a potential stabilizing force who could restore Moldova’s historic ties with Russia, providing relief from the economic challenges associated with Sandu’s pro-European policies.
In Georgia, the political landscape remains fraught with tension. President Zourabichvili has publicly urged opposition parties to boycott parliamentary proceedings, arguing that accepting their seats would legitimize what she considers a fraudulent election. In a recent protest outside the presidential palace, Zourabichvili called on the Georgian people to stand against Russian influence and advocate for Georgia’s European future, a move that has resonated with pro-Western factions both domestically and internationally.
