A volatile political crisis continues to unfold in Bolivia, where supporters of former President Evo Morales are holding over 200 soldiers hostage amid an intensifying confrontation with the government of President Luis Arce. Following what the Foreign Ministry describes as a series of “assaults by irregular groups” on military units stationed in the Chapare province, tensions are running high as both sides grapple with the potential for further violence.
The confrontation in Chapare, a region known for its historical support of Morales and his Movement for Socialism (MAS) party, has attracted international attention, with reports of soldiers stripped of basic necessities and protesters controlling key military assets.
According to Bolivia’s Foreign Ministry, three military bases in Chapare were overrun by Morales’s supporters on Friday, resulting in the capture of at least 200 soldiers. Supporters seized weapons and ammunition, intensifying concerns over the potential for escalation. Previously, early reports indicated that only 20 soldiers had been detained. However, as new information emerged, the extent of the hostages taken shocked many both in Bolivia and abroad.
Videos circulated on social media depict soldiers surrounded by groups of civilians armed with pointed sticks and crude weapons. One soldier is heard on camera stating, “They have cut off our water, electricity, and are keeping us hostage.” The precarious conditions inside the encampments add to concerns for the safety of those detained, with appeals from international human rights groups for a peaceful resolution gaining traction.
The unrest, now three weeks old, was initially fueled by Morales’s supporters blocking roads across Cochabamba’s Chapare province to prevent his possible arrest. Morales, the country’s first Indigenous leader who served from 2006 until 2019, has long claimed that charges against him—ranging from electoral fraud to more recent allegations of statutory rape, human trafficking, and human smuggling—are politically motivated, orchestrated to hinder his ambitions for a political comeback.
In an unexpected twist, prosecutors announced an investigation into Morales’s alleged relationship with a minor from 2015, accusations which Morales has adamantly denied as “lies.” The former president, now 65, is a polarizing figure in Bolivian politics, seeking to challenge his former ally, President Luis Arce, for the MAS party nomination ahead of the August 2024 elections. Days after leading a march to protest Arce’s policies, Morales found himself embroiled in fresh legal battles, further complicating the already fraught political landscape.
Despite his supporters’ aggressive tactics, Morales has appealed for caution. After initially threatening a hunger strike to compel the government into negotiations, Morales urged his backers to consider halting the roadblocks to “avoid bloodshed.” The former president’s message, however, seems to have been met with limited response, as roadblocks and protests show no sign of abating.
Morales’s stance illustrates his tactical balancing act—denouncing the government’s treatment of him as unjust while attempting to temper his supporters’ more radical actions. His concerns about violence come on the heels of an alleged assassination attempt, an incident Morales attributed to state agents after his convoy was reportedly shot at near Chapare last week. While Morales claims that his pickup truck was riddled with bullet holes in a targeted attack, the government’s version suggests that police only fired after his convoy allegedly opened fire at a checkpoint.
The Bolivian government’s reaction to the unrest has been marked by both denouncements and strategic restraint. President Arce, a former ally of Morales, called for an “immediate” end to the roadblocks, asserting that the government would “exercise its constitutional powers to safeguard the interests of the Bolivian people.” However, some analysts argue that Arce’s response has been limited, given the widespread disruptions caused by the protests.
Arce, who came into power in November 2020, faces mounting criticism from both Morales’s supporters and opposition groups, each blaming him for the country’s economic downturn. High inflation, food and fuel shortages, and spiking prices have plagued Bolivia for months, exacerbating existing discontent and fueling accusations of governmental ineptitude.
While the protests began as a specific movement to defend Morales, they have morphed into a broader anti-government uprising. Protesters, especially those from Chapare and Indigenous communities, are now openly calling for President Arce to step down. Once a loyal protégé of Morales, Arce has become a target of frustration and resentment among Morales’s base, many of whom feel he has abandoned the core values and commitments of the MAS party. These sentiments were voiced in recent marches that saw thousands, mainly Indigenous Bolivians, rally against the government’s policies in La Paz, the country’s capital.
The unrest has not only strained the government’s resources but also raised alarms regarding security and human rights. At least 90 people, mostly police officers, have been injured in the clashes to date, with casualties on both sides heightening fears of further violence. Human rights organizations have expressed concerns over the treatment of detained soldiers, urging both the Morales supporters and the Bolivian government to seek a peaceful resolution.
In addition, the seizure of weapons from military barracks is a worrying development. Bolivia has experienced violent military confrontations before, most notably in the periods of dictatorship and, more recently, the 2019 post-election crisis. For many Bolivians, the ongoing conflict represents a return to dark periods in the country’s political history, with real fears that the current standoff could escalate into a prolonged and bloody confrontation.
As Bolivia braces for what could become an even more volatile situation, analysts are considering various possible outcomes. Among these, a peaceful negotiation could see Morales’s supporters withdrawing from the barricades in exchange for a reduction in judicial pressure on Morales or increased government aid to the region.
A second, more confrontational scenario would involve a government-led crackdown, with police and military efforts to dismantle the roadblocks forcibly. This, however, carries the risk of exacerbating tensions and triggering an outright clash that could spiral out of control. A third possibility is that both Morales and Arce could reach a tentative compromise through MAS party mediation, thus avoiding further bloodshed and presenting a united front, at least temporarily, to stabilize the situation.
For Morales, the standoff is a high-stakes gamble. Should he fail to mitigate the violence or maintain his supporters’ enthusiasm, his image as a populist leader could be tarnished. On the other hand, should he emerge victorious and secure a nomination for the upcoming presidential election, he would solidify his position as an enduring force in Bolivian politics.
