Poland has taken a bold step to reposition itself as NATO’s industrial anchor on its eastern flank. With a multi-billion-zloty injection into its domestic arms manufacturing sector, Warsaw is building more than just bullets—it is forging a new paradigm of European military self-reliance. The construction of three major ammunition factories under the Polish Armaments Group (PGZ), backed by a state investment of nearly PLN 2.4 billion (€565.9 million), signals not only an industrial renaissance but a critical recalibration of strategic dependencies within NATO.
The move, officially announced on July 2, 2025, is a landmark decision that reflects both Poland’s growing defence posture and a broader European shift toward diversified military readiness. As Washington pivots to its Indo-Pacific priorities and political uncertainty clouds long-term US foreign policy, Warsaw is seizing the moment to ensure that NATO’s eastern flank is no longer left vulnerable by overreliance on a single supplier—especially for the lifeblood of modern warfare: ammunition.
The trigger for Poland’s initiative is not hard to identify. Earlier in 2025, the United States announced a temporary suspension of certain categories of ammunition shipments to Ukraine, citing domestic inventory pressures and shifting geopolitical priorities. For Ukraine, still locked in brutal artillery duels along its eastern front, the pause was a grim reminder of how deeply Kyiv’s survival is tied to the West’s production bandwidth.
More importantly, for Europe, it was a wake-up call. NATO’s ammunition stockpiles—especially the 155mm artillery shells that serve as the backbone of modern indirect firepower—have been stretched to near-breaking points since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. European nations, accustomed to low-tempo post-Cold War consumption rates, discovered they were simply not built for high-intensity, prolonged conflict. With consumption rates in Ukraine reaching up to 10,000 shells per day during offensive operations, even the most advanced Western armies have struggled to keep pace.
Poland’s decision to increase production capacity from 20,000 to between 150,000 and 180,000 large-calibre shells annually is therefore not just a national choice—it is a NATO imperative.
At the heart of this transformation are four key players: Dezamet, Mesko, Nitro-Chem, and Gamrat—subsidiaries of PGZ, Poland’s state-owned defence holding. The ambitious plan is to construct three new ammunition production plants over the next two years. Each facility will specialize in different components of large-calibre shell production, from casings to explosive fillers, in an effort to localize and streamline the entire supply chain.
Poland’s Capital Investment Fund will underwrite the project, with the goal of achieving ammunition self-sufficiency by 2027. According to PGZ officials, the new factories will feature fully automated lines, AI-driven quality control systems, and a modular layout for rapid scaling during emergencies. The integration of dual-use technologies, such as 3D printing and digital twinning, will also allow for faster prototyping and repair processes.
More than 2,000 jobs are expected to be created directly, with thousands more in associated industries like logistics, metallurgy, chemicals, and machining. For Poland—a nation with deep historical scars from past occupations and invasions—this is more than industrial policy. It is strategic insurance.
Central to this surge is the 155mm shell—a NATO-standard artillery calibre used in systems like the Polish Krab, the German Panzerhaubitze 2000, the French CAESAR, and the American M777 and M109 howitzers. These munitions are not just common—they are essential. They represent NATO’s standard approach to indirect fire in both offensive and defensive operations, offering the precision, range, and explosive effect necessary to counter both massed infantry and hardened targets.
Ukraine’s war effort has illuminated the centrality of this shell type, as well as the strategic bottleneck it presents. Even the United States, with its massive industrial base, has struggled to increase monthly production beyond 100,000 rounds, prompting President Biden’s administration to invoke emergency measures under the Defense Production Act.
Poland’s goal of producing up to 180,000 shells annually would represent a significant new pillar in this ecosystem, potentially supplying not only Ukrainian forces but replenishing depleted NATO reserves.
Poland’s initiative is not occurring in a vacuum. It is part of a broader European push for what analysts call “strategic autonomy”—the capacity to act militarily without excessive dependence on outside powers. This concept, long championed by France and recently embraced by Germany, has taken on new urgency in light of uncertainty about America’s long-term security guarantees.
In the worst-case scenario—a US retrenchment or a change in political leadership that deprioritizes NATO—Europe would be dangerously exposed. Poland’s munitions plan thus acts as a hedge: a way to ensure NATO can maintain operational tempo even if US stockpiles are reallocated elsewhere.
But the move also helps rebalance burdens within the alliance. For too long, the logistical heavy lifting—particularly in airlift, intelligence, and munitions—has been disproportionately borne by the United States. By stepping up as a reliable producer of essential warfighting supplies, Poland is recalibrating that load, enhancing both NATO’s deterrence posture and its credibility.
The timing and symbolism of Poland’s announcement are hard to miss. Coming just weeks after renewed Russian offensives in eastern Ukraine and increased hybrid threats against NATO states like Lithuania and Finland, Warsaw’s investment is both a practical and psychological message to Moscow: Eastern Europe will not be passive.
For Russian military planners, who continue to rely on overwhelming firepower as a strategic doctrine, the idea of a rearmed, self-sufficient NATO on their doorstep changes the calculus. Artillery supremacy—long considered a cornerstone of Russian ground dominance—can no longer be taken for granted if Warsaw and its allies flood the region with precision-guided shells and uninterrupted logistical pipelines.
From an economic perspective, Poland’s arms push is also a growth strategy. The decision to localize munitions production boosts regional development, particularly in southeastern and central Poland, where many of the plants will be located. These areas have historically lagged behind Warsaw and Kraków in terms of industrial investment.
Furthermore, Poland aims to integrate itself more deeply into NATO’s procurement and supply networks. By offering surplus production capacity to allies—particularly smaller Eastern European countries without domestic arms industries—Poland can position itself as a central logistical hub. Countries like the Baltic States, Slovakia, and Romania stand to benefit, purchasing munitions at shorter distances and lower transportation costs.
This aligns well with Poland’s broader goal of becoming the “arsenal of the east”—a status that could transform it into both a security provider and economic leader within the EU.
Still, the project is not without challenges. First is the question of supply chains. While Poland will localize much of its shell production, key ingredients like high-energy propellants and rare industrial chemicals still rely on global supply lines that could be disrupted during crises. Ensuring redundancy and diversity in sourcing will be crucial.
Secondly, there is the issue of scalability. Although the target of 180,000 shells per year is impressive, demand during wartime could easily surpass this, especially if multiple conflicts break out simultaneously. PGZ will need to design modular facilities capable of surging production as needed—no easy feat under bureaucratic and environmental constraints.
Politically, Poland must also navigate tensions within the EU over defence industrial coordination. France and Germany have pushed for joint procurement under EU auspices, while Warsaw prefers bilateral or NATO-focused partnerships. Whether these visions can be reconciled remains to be seen.
Poland’s decision to channel nearly PLN 2.4 billion into domestic ammunition production is more than a procurement initiative—it is a geopolitical pivot, an industrial reawakening, and a strategic insurance policy rolled into one. As Europe confronts the long war in Ukraine, the threat of future Russian escalation, and the reality of an evolving American posture, Warsaw’s investment could prove to be one of the most consequential defence decisions in a generation.
- Planned Investment: PLN 2.4 billion (€565.9 million)
- New Facilities: 3 ammunition plants
- Target Output: 150,000–180,000 155mm shells per year
- Completion Timeline: By end of 2027
- Jobs Created: Approx. 2,000 direct, thousands more indirect
- Lead Companies: PGZ, Dezamet, Mesko, Nitro-Chem, Gamrat
