In the chandeliered courtyard of the Elysee Palace, lit by cold autumn light and the flash of cameras, French President Emmanuel Macron and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy stood before a Rafale fighter jet and declared one of the most ambitious air power partnerships Europe has seen in decades. Their message was simple but weighty. Ukraine intends to acquire up to 100 Dassault Rafale multirole fighters over the next ten years, part of a new effort to secure its skies and shift the momentum in the long war triggered by Russia’s full-scale invasion.
The announcement came with a letter of intent covering Rafale aircraft, air defence systems, munitions, and a large suite of drones. The optics were carefully chosen. Behind the two leaders were the flags of both nations and a Rafale painted in grey, its sharp silhouette chosen to signal that Europe was willing to take difficult steps to harden Ukraine’s defences. The message was also aimed at Moscow. Paris and Kyiv wanted no confusion about the direction of their partnership.
Zelenskiy thanked France for what he called “strategic courage,” and Macron framed the agreement as part of Europe’s responsibility to ensure its own security. For France, the Rafale has long been more than a fighter aircraft. It is a symbol of industrial independence and technological confidence. To hand Kyiv a future fleet of 100 Rafales is to anchor Ukraine inside Europe’s defence ecosystem for a generation.
A booming Rafale production line
The timing of the announcement is tied directly to Dassault Aviation’s growing confidence. In October, the French manufacturer celebrated its 300th Rafale produced. As of late 2025, firm orders had reached 533, with customers ranging from France itself to India, Egypt, Qatar, Greece, Croatia, the UAE, Serbia, and Indonesia. Of these, 233 are yet to be delivered. This large backlog does not include Ukraine’s potential 100 aircraft, nor India’s proposal for 114 new Rafales for the Indian Air Force, a deal that is gaining traction in New Delhi.
If both Ukrainian and Indian proposals translate into contracts, the Rafale’s order book will become one of the most significant for any fourth and a half generation fighter today.
To meet demand, Dassault has taken an unusual step in French aerospace history. The company has steadily increased its production tempo. A year ago, Rafale output was two aircraft a month, or 24 per year. That figure now stands at three per month and is planned to rise to four. That means 48 Rafales a year, a rate not seen in the French aerospace industry for many decades.
Supporting this expansion are upgrades at the company’s facility in Mérignac and the growth of a new production site in Cergy-Pontoise. On top of this, Dassault has already committed to manufacturing Rafale fuselages in India, a major shift in how French defence companies structure their global supply chains.
India is central to the next chapter of the Rafale program. The country has already ordered 36 Rafales and the Indian Navy has signed for 26 carrier-capable Rafale-M variants. If New Delhi approves the Indian Air Force’s push for 114 additional fighters, production capacity will need to grow well beyond France’s domestic throughput.
The Indian proposal is not for standard imported aircraft. It calls for the 114 Rafales to be “Made in India,” with more than 60 percent indigenous content. Dassault will partner with major Indian aerospace firms, including Tata Advanced Systems Limited, which already has agreements in place for fuselage production. The value of the proposal is estimated at more than Rs 2 lakh crore, roughly 22 billion dollars, and would be the largest defence contract India has ever signed.
If India proceeds, a full assembly line is expected to be set up within the country. This would mark the first time in Rafale history that complete aircraft are produced outside France. India has already shown capability in producing global-standard aircraft components. It builds cabins for the Apache AH-64, fuselage structures for the Sikorsky S-92, wings for the F-16, and full airframes for its own Light Combat Aircraft.
From Dassault’s perspective, local production in India is not a geopolitical concession. It is a strategic investment that makes the Rafale more competitive worldwide. The cost of Indian manufactured aircraft will be lower, and the output can be used for both Indian and foreign customers. This extra throughput is essential if Dassault is to keep up with global demand.
Why India needs the Rafale now
The Indian Air Force is running short of fighters. It is down to 29 squadrons, far below its authorised strength of 42 and a half. The drawdown of older aircraft has accelerated. India retired its last MiG-21 squadron in September 2025. The Jaguar, once the backbone of India’s deep strike capability, will be next to leave service. The Mirage-2000 and MiG-29 fleets, both upgraded, will serve for another decade, but India knows it needs a fresh backbone of modern fighters.
The future IAF fleet is expected to revolve around the Su-30MKI, the Rafale, and the indigenous LCA and AMCA programs. With delays in the LCA Mk1A, pressure is mounting on the Rafale as the only mature platform that can be inducted quickly and with minimal disruption. The IAF has already trained crews, prepared bases, and stocked spares for its first two Rafale squadrons. Adding more Rafales avoids the logistical burden of introducing yet another fighter type. It also gives the IAF 95 percent commonality across its Air Force and Navy Rafale fleets.
While airframes dominate headlines, the most long-lasting impact may come from another French link. Safran, France’s premier aerospace engine manufacturer, signed a landmark partnership with India’s Defence Research and Development Organisation to co-develop a 120 kilonewton jet engine with full Indian intellectual property rights. This includes transfer of the prized single-crystal blade technology that only a handful of nations fully control.
The engine will power India’s future AMCA fighters, which are intended to be twin-engine stealth aircraft built entirely in India. The Safran-GTRE project will develop nine prototypes over twelve years. The engines will begin at 120 kN and grow to 140 kN by the end of the development cycle.
Only the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, and France have mastered full jet engine development. China has attempted to achieve this but has struggled with quality and performance, relying often on Russian technology or reverse-engineered solutions. For India, joining this elite group has long been a strategic goal. The Kaveri engine project was not completed, and India has relied on American GE-404 and GE-414 engines for its LCA program. The Rafale’s French connection provides a natural pathway for India to move beyond dependence and into the role of a genuine engine-producing nation.
India’s comfort with French aerospace is not new. It stretches back to the 1950s when India acquired the Ouragan and Mystère. Through the 1960s and 1970s, HAL license-built French Aérospatiale helicopters that became the Cheetah and Chetak. The Indian Navy operated the French Alizé for carrier missions. The Franco-British Jaguar served India for decades and remains active. The Mirage-2000 revolutionised India’s air combat doctrine when it arrived in the 1980s, introducing fly-by-wire controls, modern radars, and early beyond-visual-range missiles.
That history built a foundation of trust. France is seen in New Delhi as a reliable partner that does not attempt to influence Indian foreign policy through sanction pressure. That perception deepened after Paris stood by India during past crises and avoided export controls that other countries imposed.
What the Rafale brings to Ukraine
For Ukraine, the Rafale is not just a fighter. It is a political anchor inside Europe’s defence architecture. Kyiv has relied on a mix of Soviet-era jets, NATO training programs, and Western air defence systems. With Russia deploying glide bombs, hypersonic missiles, and drones in larger quantities, Ukraine’s leadership has been searching for a fighter with long range, powerful sensors, and advanced air-to-air missiles.
The Rafale meets these needs. It is equipped with the RBE2 AESA radar, has a sensor suite that includes infrared search and track, and carries the Meteor missile, which has one of the largest no-escape zones of any air-to-air weapon. The aircraft’s electronic warfare system, SPECTRA, is widely regarded as one of its greatest strengths. It can detect, classify, and jam threats while guiding countermeasures with high precision.
The Rafale’s performance in Afghanistan, Libya, Mali, Iraq, Syria, and other theatres gives Ukraine confidence that it is receiving a combat-tested platform. For Kyiv, it is also a path toward NATO interoperability. The Rafale’s network capabilities, data fusion systems, and communications suite will help Ukrainian pilots integrate with Western air forces during joint operations.
One question hangs over all these commitments. How fast can Dassault actually deliver? With current output at 36 aircraft per year and plans to push it to 48, the company can meet existing orders, but only just. If Ukraine formalises its 100-jet plan and India approves its 114-jet proposal, Dassault will face a backlog that stretches well beyond a decade.
France knows this. Industry officials have already said that France needs a second Rafale production line. The most likely location is India, where costs are lower, output is scalable, and the government is willing to invest heavily in aerospace manufacturing. A dual-line arrangement, with one line in France and another in India, could push production well above 60 aircraft per year. That would allow Dassault to meet global demand while preserving its own military commitments.
At the Elysee Palace, Macron used the moment to send a wider message. Europe must build its own defence capacity. The United States remains a partner, but France wants Europe to be able to stand alone when needed. The Rafale agreement with Ukraine is part of that vision. By tying Kyiv’s air power future to a European aircraft, France is pulling Ukraine further into the orbit of European defence industrial supply chains.
Zelenskiy, for his part, framed the Rafale plan as a long-term guarantee of Ukrainian sovereignty. “Our people must know that our skies will be safe. This is not only a purchase. It is a partnership for decades,” he told reporters.
India, France, and the strategic triangle
Although India was not physically present in Paris, the shadow of India’s possible 114-jet order hovered in the background. If India builds Rafales locally, it will become a central pillar of the global Rafale ecosystem. Paris gains an expanded industrial base. India gains technology, production capacity, and strategic influence. Ukraine gains access to an aircraft that will be built in greater numbers and at lower cost.
For France, this triangle of cooperation offers something rare. It places French aerospace at the heart of military modernisation in two major geopolitical theatres: Eastern Europe and the Indo-Pacific. For India, the triangle provides diversification away from both Russian hardware and American uncertainty. For Ukraine, it provides a modern jet that can help shape the outcome of a war that shows no sign of ending soon.
Ukraine’s 100-jet plan is still a letter of intent, not a final contract. India’s 114-jet proposal is still moving through its procurement machinery. Yet the momentum is unmistakable. Rafale production is accelerating. India is building fuselages. France is preparing to share some of its most sensitive engine technology. And Ukraine is preparing to join one of the most advanced fighter ecosystems in the world.
The Rafale has always been a symbol of French industrial pride. In 2025, it has become something larger. It is now a hinge around which Europe, India, and Ukraine are aligning their long-term security strategies. In an era of shifting power and rising conflict, that alignment may prove to be one of the most important developments of the decade.
