In a startling escalation of the ongoing conflict, Russia launched an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) targeting Ukraine for the first time on Thursday, according to reports from international media. The move underscores a significant intensification of hostilities and raises alarm about the potential for broader geopolitical ramifications.
The Ukrainian Air Force reported that the missile strike occurred between 5 and 7 a.m. and targeted the industrial city of Dnipro. The attack involved cruise missiles aimed at critical infrastructure and key enterprises. While specific details about the damage and casualties remain unclear, the deployment of an ICBM represents a dramatic shift in Russia’s military strategy.
The missile was reportedly launched from Astrakhan, a city in southern Russia near the Caspian Sea. However, the Kremlin refused to provide further details, deflecting questions to the Russian Defense Ministry, which has yet to comment.
According to The Telegraph, there are indications that the missile used could be an RS-26 Sarmat, a highly advanced ICBM capable of delivering both nuclear and conventional warheads over thousands of kilometers. While this has not been confirmed, the mere possibility of such a deployment has provoked international alarm. German news agency DPA added that air raid alerts were sounded across Ukraine during the strike, further highlighting the heightened state of tension.
The attack follows recent battlefield developments in which Ukraine utilized U.S.-supplied Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) to strike Russian targets. The Kremlin has adjusted its nuclear doctrine in response, allowing for potential nuclear retaliation against non-nuclear states supported by nuclear powers—a thinly veiled reference to Ukraine and its Western allies.
Russian President Vladimir Putin recently signed a revised nuclear doctrine that broadens the conditions under which Moscow might employ nuclear weapons. The doctrine notably permits nuclear strikes against non-nuclear states if they are supported by nuclear powers. It also emphasizes preemptive strikes against perceived threats from precision-guided conventional weapons.
This shift represents a destabilizing departure from the norms established during the Cold War, where mutual deterrence maintained a fragile balance of power. Experts warn that this new doctrine could create an environment ripe for miscalculation and unintended escalation.
Russia’s revised doctrine explicitly names nations like the United States, Britain, and France—all nuclear powers supplying arms to Ukraine—as potential targets. It also leaves the door open to targeting NATO allies and other nations supporting Ukraine. Alarmingly, South Korea has found itself indirectly implicated. While not a direct participant in the conflict, Seoul has considered supplying weapons to Ukraine, a move Moscow could interpret as grounds for inclusion under its broadened doctrine.
South Korea faces a precarious position. If Seoul provides lethal aid to Ukraine, it risks being classified as a target under Russia’s nuclear doctrine. This is compounded by North Korea’s recent deployment of troops to assist Russia, which has further strained inter-Korean relations and drawn South Korea deeper into the geopolitical fray.
Russia’s alignment with North Korea, marked by a comprehensive strategic partnership treaty signed in June, raises the specter of a nuclear-backed alliance between Moscow and Pyongyang. Such an alliance could challenge the U.S. “nuclear umbrella” over South Korea and force Seoul to reconsider its deterrence strategies.
Russia’s overt threats to NATO members and its expansive interpretation of its nuclear doctrine place Western allies in a difficult position. Any response risks further escalation, while inaction could embolden Moscow. The inclusion of conventional precision-guided weapons as a justification for nuclear strikes adds a layer of complexity, as Western-supplied weapons like ATACMS and Storm Shadow missiles are pivotal to Ukraine’s defense strategy.
North Korea’s support for Russia in the Ukraine conflict—through the deployment of troops and potentially other military resources—solidifies an evolving partnership. Analysts fear that Moscow could extend its nuclear protection to Pyongyang, fundamentally altering the security calculus in Northeast Asia. If Russia positions itself as a nuclear guarantor for North Korea, it could undermine the deterrence mechanisms currently upheld by the United States and its allies.
The use of nuclear weapons by Russia, even in a tactical capacity, could have profound global consequences. Experts caution that such a move might erode the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) framework, potentially triggering a nuclear arms race among non-nuclear states. Nations like South Korea and Japan, which have advanced technological capabilities, could be driven to develop their own nuclear arsenals.
“This could spark a nuclear domino effect, with multiple non-nuclear states seeking to arm themselves,” said Professor Park Won-gon of Ewha Womans University. “The collapse of the NPT system would have catastrophic consequences for global security.”
Ukraine’s recent use of ATACMS and British-supplied Storm Shadow missiles reflects a shift in Western policies regarding weapons deployment. The discovery of Storm Shadow fragments in Russia’s Kursk region—where North Korean troops are reportedly stationed—further highlights the international dimension of the conflict.
While Russia’s nuclear threats have intensified, most experts agree that the actual use of nuclear weapons remains unlikely. The geopolitical costs, including the potential collapse of the NPT framework and global condemnation, serve as significant deterrents.
“In a worst-case scenario, Russia could push Ukraine toward surrender by employing low-yield tactical nuclear weapons,” Professor Park explained. “However, the repercussions—both strategically and diplomatically—would be enormous.”
The unfolding crisis has far-reaching implications for international stability. The erosion of established norms regarding nuclear use and the expansion of Russia’s nuclear doctrine signal a world moving toward increased unpredictability. The potential for a “nuclear chicken game” between the United States and Russia looms large, with regions like the Korean Peninsula and Eastern Europe serving as potential flashpoints.
