Russia is ramping up its attacks in eastern Ukraine, intensifying clashes along the front lines as it prepares for what Ukrainian officials and military analysts predict will be a large-scale offensive. Despite the increased aggression, Russian territorial gains have slowed, while Ukraine has made incremental advances, particularly in Donetsk.
The escalation is widely seen as an attempt by Russian President Vladimir Putin to strengthen his bargaining position in ongoing ceasefire negotiations. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has accused Moscow of stalling talks while preparing for a prolonged military campaign that could last most of 2025.
According to the Ukrainian DeepState open-source mapping group, the frequency of Russian assaults in the Pokrovsk area surged significantly in late March, reaching levels comparable to the peak of 2024 when Ukrainian defensive positions in the region nearly collapsed.
“About a third of more than 200 clashes across the front lines on Tuesday took place in and around Pokrovsk,” the Ukrainian military reported. The city is a key logistics hub, making it a crucial target for Russian forces.
Zelensky warned that Russian forces are planning further offensives across multiple regions.
“According to our intelligence, Russia is preparing for new offensives in Sumy, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia regions,” he said last week. “They are dragging out negotiations and trying to drag the U.S. into endless, meaningless discussions about fake conditions to buy time and then try to seize even more land.”
Oleksii Hetman, a Ukrainian military analyst, suggested that Russia’s new offensive actions could last between six to nine months. The Kremlin has reportedly shifted tens of thousands of troops from Kursk to the eastern front, while Ukraine has also redeployed several brigades to counter the offensive.
Adding to concerns, Russia has called up 160,000 new conscripts aged 18-30, the highest number since 2011. The BBC reported that this move follows Putin’s broader plan to expand Russia’s armed forces to 2.39 million, including 1.5 million active servicemen over the next three years.
Although Russian officials claim these new conscripts will not be deployed to Ukraine, similar past assurances have not held true.
Despite the surge in attacks, Russia’s territorial advances have been minimal. Ukrainian DeepState analysts reported that Russian forces occupied just 133 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory in March, the lowest monthly figure since last July. This marks a sixfold decrease compared to November.
“This does not mean that the enemy has sat on its ass and is waiting for a ‘negotiator,’” DeepState stated. “The [Russians] have resumed offensive operations in several directions.”
Meanwhile, Ukraine has made modest but meaningful advances in Donetsk, aided by drone warfare that has significantly hampered Russian armored movements. Many Russian infantry units are now advancing on motorcycles or on foot, suffering heavy casualties in the process.
As battles rage on, diplomatic efforts to broker a ceasefire continue. Former U.S. President Donald Trump, who is attempting to mediate, has proposed a 30-day ceasefire as a stepping stone toward broader peace talks. However, the prospects for success remain bleak.
Putin has effectively rejected an immediate ceasefire, reportedly stalling negotiations to extract more concessions from the West. The Kremlin has also linked a potential Black Sea ceasefire—which would allow safer commercial shipping—to additional demands on Ukraine and its allies.
Finnish President Alexander Stubb, after meeting with Trump at Mar-a-Lago, described Putin’s tactics as deliberate stalling:
“Putin respects and, in many ways, fears Donald Trump,” Stubb told Fox News. “If he does not agree to a ceasefire by April 20, there should be a colossal set of sanctions from the U.S. and Europe.”
In a separate development, Ukraine has begun consultations with the U.S. regarding an expanded mineral resources agreement that could give Washington increased access to Ukraine’s vast natural resources, including rare earth minerals.
While the deal has the potential to bring significant financial benefits, some Ukrainian lawmakers have expressed concern. MP Oleksiy Movchan likened the proposed agreement to “slavery,” arguing that it risks ceding too much control to the U.S.
Despite discussions of a limited ceasefire on energy infrastructure, Russia has continued targeting Ukrainian power grids. On Tuesday, a Russian strike on a power facility in Kherson left 45,000 residents without electricity.
This follows previous attacks on Kherson, Kharkiv, and Poltava Oblast, violating what was supposed to be a U.S.-brokered agreement to halt such strikes.
A recent ISW report highlights the following battlefield developments:
- Kharkiv: Russian forces launched attacks but did not advance.
- Luhansk: Russian troops made small gains in Kupyansk and Lyman but failed to move closer to Borova.
- Donetsk: Russia advanced toward Kurakhove and Velyka Novosilka, while Ukraine made gains in Toretsk.
- Zaporizhzhia: Russia attacked but failed to advance.
- Kherson: Russian operations near the Dnipro River resulted in no territorial gains.
Ukraine’s drone operations continue to disrupt Russian forces. The Netherlands recently pledged €500 million ($540 million) for Ukraine’s large-scale drone program, part of a broader €2 billion ($2.16 billion) acceleration package.
Meanwhile, Ukraine has recovered a Russian Shahed drone filled with cardboard instead of explosives, suggesting that Russia is using decoys to drain Ukrainian air defenses.
Ukraine has unveiled an upgraded FrankenSAM system, a makeshift surface-to-air missile launcher built on a donated Humvee, using repurposed Soviet-era R-73 air-to-air missiles. The new system aims to bolster Ukraine’s air defenses amid ongoing Russian drone and missile strikes.
Additionally, Ukrainian FPV drones have successfully targeted Russian vessels in Crimea, as well as an advanced TOR-M2 anti-aircraft missile system.
U.S. Senator Charles Grassley has insisted that any Ukraine peace deal must include the return of abducted Ukrainian children. Over 19,000 Ukrainian children have reportedly been taken to Russia and subjected to forced adoption and re-education.
“Any peace agreement must address this crime,” Grassley stated.
Putin has signed a decree requiring all Ukrainians in occupied territories to either obtain Russian citizenship or leave by September 10. Those who fail to comply will be forcibly deported. This new policy has led to increased Russian law enforcement activity in occupied regions.
The war in Ukraine is entering another critical phase, with Russia intensifying its attacks and preparing for a new offensive. As Putin seeks to negotiate from a position of strength, Ukraine remains resolute in its defense, leveraging advanced drone warfare and international support.
While diplomatic negotiations continue, the chances of an imminent peace deal remain uncertain. As spring turns into summer, the battlefield will likely determine the next phase of this ongoing conflict.
