As the Russo-Ukraine war enters its third year, several Western defense analysts have been closely scrutinizing the progress—or lack thereof—of Russia’s Sukhoi Su-57 “Felon,” its premier fifth-generation fighter jet. The Su-57, intended to be a cornerstone of Russia’s aerial dominance, has faced numerous development and production delays, stemming from a complex mix of factors, including the Ukraine conflict and the impact of Western sanctions.
While Russia had ambitious plans for the Su-57, the reality has been less impressive. Analysts believe that delays in key micro-electronic components, essential for sensors and cockpit displays, as well as supply chain disruptions, have significantly affected the production schedule. As a result, Russia has turned to its older but reliable fourth-generation Su-30SM2 and Su-35S fighters, ramping up their production to meet the demands of the ongoing war.
The Su-57 program’s challenges go beyond the war. The aircraft made its maiden flight in 2010, but serious production did not start until 2019. Even now, 14 years after its first flight, fewer than 40 Su-57s have been delivered. Western analysts attribute this sluggish pace to both internal issues, such as design complications, and external pressures, such as Western sanctions.
The sanctions, especially those targeting Russia’s access to advanced microelectronics, have hampered the Su-57’s sensor suite development. The delays in deploying the NPO Lyulka-Saturn AL-51 engines, which are supposed to provide the aircraft with superior thrust and supercruise capabilities, have also forced the Su-57 to continue using the older AL-41F1 engines. These engines, shared with the Su-35S, lack the power and efficiency required for a fifth-generation fighter.
Despite the challenges, the Russian government has remained publicly optimistic. In June 2019, the Russian Ministry of Defence signed a contract for 76 Su-57s, with plans to have three full aviation regiments of the fighter jet operational by 2028. In response to ongoing delays, Russia now aims to double its production rate in 2024, with a target of delivering more than 20 Su-57s that year.
The United Aircraft Corporation (UAC), Russia’s state-owned aerospace company, has stated that recent deliveries of Su-57s have already reached their operational airbases, and feedback from pilots and engineers has been positive. Russia claims it has resolved most technological development issues and supply chain bottlenecks, allowing production to ramp up.
However, Western experts remain skeptical. They believe the production bottlenecks are far from over, especially given the continued strain of Western sanctions and the war in Ukraine. For instance, Russia’s inability to dominate Ukrainian airspace, despite a significant aerial arsenal, has raised questions about the operational effectiveness of its fleet, including the Su-57.
One of the key criticisms of the Su-57 is its radar cross-section (RCS), which, at approximately 0.5 square meters, is comparable to fourth-generation fighters. By comparison, the American F-35 has an RCS of around 0.005 square meters, making it far more stealthy. This has been a major point of contention among analysts, as stealth is a defining feature of fifth-generation fighters.
Nevertheless, the Su-57 boasts several advanced features. It is highly maneuverable, with its 360-degree thrust vectoring capabilities allowing it to perform complex combat maneuvers that few other aircraft can match. The fighter also employs an advanced avionics suite, including an Integrated Modular Avionics Combat System. This system uses fiber optic channels to integrate the aircraft’s multiple radars, including an active electronically scanned array (AESA) X-band radar, enhancing its situational awareness and targeting capabilities.
The aircraft also features a sophisticated electro-optical system, which includes infrared search and track (IRST) sensors, missile approach warning systems (MAWS), and advanced countermeasures such as radar decoys and electronic countermeasures (ECM) transmitters.
Despite these advancements, the limited stealth capabilities and continued reliance on older engines have raised doubts about the Su-57’s ability to rival its American counterparts, the F-22 and F-35, in both stealth and performance.
The Su-57 has seen limited combat action in both Syria and Ukraine, though its missions have largely been restricted to firing weapons from Russian territory, rather than deep-penetration stealth missions. Western experts argue that a true fifth-generation fighter should be capable of stealthily penetrating enemy airspace, a feat the Su-57 has yet to demonstrate.
The ongoing war in Ukraine has exposed another challenge: Russia’s inability to establish air superiority, despite its large fleet of aircraft. This failure has been attributed to several factors, including ineffective Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses (SEAD) and the limited availability of advanced platforms like the Su-57.
As Russia pushes to increase Su-57 production, there is speculation that India might express renewed interest in the aircraft. India was once a partner in the Sukhoi/HAL Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA) project, which was based on the Su-57. However, in 2018, India withdrew from the project, citing concerns over cost-sharing, technical challenges, and delays.
Since then, India has been working on its own fifth-generation fighter program, the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA). However, the AMCA project is progressing slowly, with squadron entry now expected no earlier than 2035. As China ramps up production of its fifth-generation Chengdu J-20 fighters, and Pakistan explores options for acquiring its own fifth-generation jets, India may face increasing pressure to bridge the capability gap.
Given that 60 percent of the Indian Air Force (IAF) fleet is already of Russian origin, acquiring the Su-57 could be a logical interim solution. However, India is wary of deepening its reliance on Russia, especially with the uncertainty surrounding Russia’s production capabilities and the continued impact of Western sanctions.
One alternative option for India could be the American Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II, though this remains a complex proposition. The US has been hesitant to offer the F-35 to India, largely due to India’s acquisition of the Russian S-400 air defense system. However, as India becomes a key player in the US-led Indo-Pacific strategy, there is speculation that the US might make an exception and offer the F-35 to keep India within the Western defense fold.
Another option could be an expanded deal with France for the Rafale, which India already operates. The Rafale is a highly capable 4.5-generation fighter, with some versions offering features comparable to fifth-generation fighters. The Indian variant of the Rafale, which features several India-specific modifications, has been well-received by the IAF. Additionally, France is already working on a next-generation “Super Rafale,” which could offer enhanced capabilities that might bridge the gap until India’s AMCA program comes to fruition.
As the war in Ukraine drags on, Russia’s ability to meet its Su-57 production targets remains uncertain. While the Russian government is pushing for increased output, Western analysts remain skeptical. For India, the decision of whether to revive its partnership with Russia on the Su-57 or pursue alternatives like the F-35 or Rafale will be crucial in shaping its air force for the coming decades.
India’s strategic needs are growing, particularly in light of China’s rapidly expanding J-20 fleet and Pakistan’s pursuit of its own fifth-generation capabilities. While developing indigenous fighters like the AMCA remains a priority, India may need to act quickly to prevent a significant capability gap.
The Su-57’s future—both in Russia and on the international stage—remains uncertain. Until Russia can overcome its production challenges and meet its ambitious delivery goals, countries like India will remain in a wait-and-watch mode, weighing their options carefully in an increasingly competitive global defense landscape.
