Russia’s intensifying aerial assault on Ukrainian territory has introduced a new dimension of complexity to missile defense efforts, as Ukraine’s Air Force now reports significant upgrades to the notorious Iskander-M ballistic missile. According to Air Force spokesperson Yuriy Ihnat, recent intelligence indicates that the Russian military has enhanced the Iskander-M with new maneuvering capabilities and radar decoys, rendering interception attempts by the U.S.-made Patriot missile systems significantly more difficult.
“We and our partners have information that the enemy’s missiles flying a ballistic trajectory — specifically the Iskander-M — have been improved and modernized,” Ihnat said in a press briefing.
The upgraded Iskander-M now reportedly flies on a quasi-ballistic path, enabling it to perform in-flight maneuvers and release decoys during its final approach to targets. This development undermines one of Ukraine’s most vital lines of defense — the Patriot air defense system, which has proven effective against several types of Russian aerial threats, including the much-touted Kinzhal hypersonic missile.
Traditional ballistic missiles travel in a predictable parabolic arc. Patriot systems use algorithms to calculate these paths and launch interceptors to intercept them mid-flight. However, the upgraded Iskander-M appears to disrupt this model. “The missile doesn’t just fly in a straight line like it’s falling,” Ihnat explained. “It actually performs maneuvers in flight.”
Such unpredictable flight patterns reduce the likelihood that the Patriot system — or any missile defense relying on predictive targeting — will correctly anticipate the missile’s future location. But perhaps more alarming is the addition of radar decoys.
Each Iskander-M missile can reportedly release radar traps or decoys in its terminal phase — the final seconds before impact — a critical window when missile defense systems typically engage their targets. These decoys mimic the radar signature of the actual missile, confusing radar systems and increasing the chance of evading interception.
In essence, Ukraine now faces a more elusive and deceptive missile that undermines even its most advanced Western-supplied defenses.
Radar decoys are not a new concept in missile warfare. Historically, they have been used to obscure a missile’s real trajectory, generate false targets, or overwhelm enemy radar arrays. The Iskander-M appears to leverage a sophisticated version of this principle.
Defense experts say these decoys are typically small, dart-shaped objects about 30 cm long, ejected from the missile’s rear section. Once deployed, they imitate the missile’s radar cross-section, appearing on radar screens as potential targets. Some are automatically released in response to radar illumination, while others may activate based on preprogrammed trajectories.
The use of these decoys was first confirmed publicly by the Pentagon in early 2022, when American intelligence officials revealed that the Iskander-M’s unique capabilities were not previously known, particularly in Western circles. Importantly, these countermeasures are not included in the export versions of the Iskander, such as the Iskander-E, to prevent adversarial analysis and exploitation.
This secrecy surrounding the decoy system means the full extent of its capabilities may still be unknown.
Ihnat’s recent comments, however, raise critical questions. If the Iskander-M has employed such countermeasures for years, what exactly has changed?
Some analysts suggest that Ukraine’s latest reports might conflate different missile systems. Abhijit Thakur, an independent defense analyst, proposes that the Air Force spokesperson might have mistakenly attributed capabilities to the Iskander-M that actually belong to the KN-23, a North Korean missile reportedly modeled on the Russian design.
“The KN-23 has some significant modifications and has seen its own evolution,” Thakur explained. “It’s possible Ihnat’s statements reflect recent intelligence on that missile rather than the traditional Iskander-M.”
Still, whether the missiles in question are Russian, North Korean, or a hybrid, the result is the same for Ukraine — a missile threat that is increasingly difficult to counter.
Since the start of the war, the Patriot missile defense system has been a symbol of Ukraine’s resolve and U.S. support. Manufactured by Raytheon and Lockheed Martin, the Patriot PAC-3 version is designed to intercept both aircraft and tactical ballistic missiles.
Following the interception of Russia’s Kinzhal hypersonic missile in 2023, Ukraine’s reliance on the system deepened. Lockheed Martin saw increased global interest in the platform, and the U.S. publicly touted the system’s battlefield success.
Patriots were credited with downing Russian fighter jets, including the Su-34, and even a sophisticated A-50 airborne early warning aircraft over the Sea of Azov in January 2024.
However, the emergence of upgraded threats like the new Iskander-M — or variants thereof — may require rapid adaptation. Ihnat acknowledged that while the decoys complicate defense, they don’t render interception impossible. “I think our partners are already working to improve the system’s capabilities,” he said.
Given the evolving threat landscape, Ukraine has launched an aggressive campaign to acquire more Patriot batteries. It currently operates six, but defense experts say at least 25 are needed for full national coverage, especially in protecting densely populated cities and strategic infrastructure.
President Volodymyr Zelensky has gone on record offering to purchase additional systems. In an April interview with CBS News, he revealed that Kyiv had proposed buying ten more Patriot batteries for $15 billion — a staggering sum. The proposal was reportedly made directly to former U.S. President Donald Trump.
“There is the Patriot system, and you have many of them,” Zelensky said. “You also have production capacity. One system costs $1.5 billion — we are ready to buy it.”
Ukraine’s Defense Minister Rustem Umerov also met with Joseph DeAntona, a Raytheon executive, to discuss urgent procurement of additional systems. “We stand ready to invest in this area, as it concerns the lives of our citizens and the resilience of the state,” Umerov stated.
Despite these urgent efforts, there’s still debate over the Ukrainian Air Force’s claim. Analysts caution that Russia’s capabilities are often exaggerated — by both Russian and Ukrainian sources — for psychological warfare, propaganda, or strategic reasons.
“If the Iskander-M already had quasi-ballistic trajectory and decoys years ago, what’s truly new?” asked Dr. Pavel Ivanov, a former missile engineer and defense analyst. “Either the missile has been significantly refined, or Ukraine is signaling a need for faster Western support.”
This sentiment is echoed in Washington, where officials are trying to verify whether the recent failures to intercept Russian missiles are due to improved enemy technology or limitations in existing Ukrainian defense deployments.
What’s clear is that the nature of missile warfare in Ukraine is changing. With faster, smarter, and more deceptive weapons in the air, the burden on ground-based interceptors is growing heavier. As both sides innovate, missile defense is becoming as much a game of adaptation as it is of firepower.
And for Ukraine, the clock is ticking. Each failed interception risks not only infrastructure but human lives. As missiles rain down with increasing frequency and sophistication, Ukraine’s plea for advanced defenses grows ever more urgent.
