Turkey and the United States are once again edging toward a delicate diplomatic crossroads as both sides signal a cautious willingness to revisit one of the thorniest defense issues of the past decade: Ankara’s suspension from the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program.
However, before any substantial thaw in relations can occur, both NATO allies must navigate a series of intricate, technical-level negotiations aimed at dismantling the punitive sanctions imposed on Turkey under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA).
At the heart of this geopolitical recalibration lies Turkey’s ambition to reintegrate into the fifth-generation fighter jet program spearheaded by Lockheed Martin—a program that not only redefines air dominance but also shapes the technological backbone of allied air forces across Europe and the Asia-Pacific.
The most recent signs of movement came during a high-profile meeting in Washington between Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and U.S. Senator Marco Rubio.
According to diplomatic sources cited by Reuters, CAATSA sanctions were front and center during their closed-door discussions, with both parties acknowledging that the path forward requires more granular, technical consultations to iron out unresolved defense and strategic concerns.
“These technical consultations are critical to bridging lingering differences and unlocking the full potential of U.S.-Turkey defense collaboration,” a diplomatic insider told the agency.
The Biden administration had previously kept Ankara at arm’s length, deeply wary of Turkey’s increasingly warm ties with Moscow—especially after Ankara’s acquisition of Russia’s S-400 Triumf long-range air defense system.
Washington viewed the move as a breach of trust within the NATO alliance, fearing that the integration of Russian radar systems on Turkish soil could expose sensitive data on the F-35’s stealth architecture, radar cross-section, and electronic warfare capabilities.
But as the global strategic chessboard begins to shift—with Donald Trump eyeing a return to the Oval Office—Ankara senses an opportunity.
Trump, known for his more conciliatory stance towards Russia and personal rapport with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, could offer a more flexible approach to recalibrating bilateral defense ties.
Sources familiar with the matter confirmed that the Fidan-Rubio dialogue follows a recent, reportedly “transformative” phone conversation between Trump and Erdogan.
Behind the scenes, diplomatic teams are now working to coordinate a high-level state visit by Erdogan to Washington—an event that, if realized, could symbolically reset the defense narrative between the two countries.
Turkey’s removal from the F-35 program in 2019 marked a dramatic rupture in what was once an increasingly ambitious strategic partnership.
Ankara had been a founding industrial partner in the multinational fighter program, investing billions into its supply chain and committing to purchase at least 100 F-35A variants for its Air Force.
The fighter was poised to become the centerpiece of Turkey’s future airpower, replacing aging F-4 Phantoms and bolstering its regional military posture from the Eastern Mediterranean to the Black Sea.
But Turkey’s decision to procure the S-400 system from Russia—a sophisticated platform with multi-layered tracking radar and the capability to engage stealth aircraft—was viewed in Washington as an unacceptable security risk.
In response, the U.S. invoked CAATSA and not only blocked F-35 deliveries but also froze Turkish firms out of the program’s lucrative manufacturing contracts, affecting components ranging from fuselage parts to cockpit displays.
Now, there are indications that Trump—should he return to the presidency—may be willing to revisit the F-35 embargo, if Ankara agrees to deactivate or place its S-400 units into long-term storage.
In fact, multiple sources suggest the issue was raised during Erdogan’s call with Trump and may form a key bargaining chip in any broader defense reconciliation.
A statement from the Turkish Embassy in Washington, referencing official remarks from the Presidential Office in Ankara, confirmed that Erdogan had urged Trump to lift CAATSA sanctions, accelerate approval of Turkey’s pending F-16 Block 70 acquisition, and clear the way for its reintegration into the F-35 ecosystem.
CAATSA, enacted by the U.S. Congress in 2017, was designed to deter America’s strategic rivals—primarily Russia, Iran, and North Korea—by penalizing foreign entities engaging in significant military or intelligence transactions with those nations.
Turkey became the first NATO member to face CAATSA sanctions, highlighting the deepening fault lines within the alliance.
Although Turkey received its first regiment of S-400 batteries in 2019, it has yet to fully operationalize the system, fueling speculation that Ankara has deliberately kept the system in storage to maintain leverage in its ongoing talks with Washington.
While Turkey successfully conducted a limited live-fire test of the S-400 in Sinop in 2020, there is no indication it has been fully integrated into the country’s layered air defense network, which still heavily relies on legacy systems such as the MIM-23 Hawk and domestically developed platforms like the Hisar-A and Hisar-O.
For Turkey, which occupies a pivotal geostrategic position at the intersection of Europe, the Middle East, and the Caucasus, regaining access to the F-35 could significantly elevate its regional power projection capabilities.
With its stealth profile, sensor fusion, and multi-domain warfare integration, the F-35 offers unmatched superiority in contested airspace—a critical advantage as Ankara seeks to assert influence in theaters ranging from the Eastern Mediterranean to Libya and the South Caucasus.
Yet, the road to reentry is far from straightforward. Any compromise on the S-400 issue would likely provoke backlash from nationalist factions within Turkey, who see the Russian system as a symbol of strategic autonomy.
Conversely, failure to reach consensus could risk Ankara drifting further from the NATO fold—at a time when the alliance is already grappling with a fragmented European security landscape amid the war in Ukraine.
As Washington and Ankara inch closer to potentially resetting their military-industrial relationship, the next few months could prove decisive.
The F-35 is more than just a fighter jet; it is a litmus test of alliance trust, technological alignment, and the future direction of transatlantic security cooperation.
