For most of the three decades since gaining independence in 1991, Turkmenistan has been conspicuously absent from discussions on Central Asia’s geopolitical and economic strategies. Ashgabat’s reticence in sharing data and allowing external analysis fostered this neglect. When mentioned, it was often in the context of its constitutionally mandated neutrality, authoritarian leadership, or widespread poverty. However, the last two years have marked a dramatic shift in Turkmenistan’s role on the regional stage, particularly as a crucial conduit for north-south and east-west trade routes linking China, Europe, Russia, and South Asia.
Recent geopolitical developments have thrust Turkmenistan into the limelight, highlighting its potential as a strategic hub for international trade. Analysts note that the country’s newfound prominence has intensified geopolitical competition and raised concerns within Ashgabat about the implications of increased foreign involvement.
Two significant events this week underscore Turkmenistan’s growing importance. Firstly, an agreement signed in Aktau between Kazakhstan, Russia, Iran, and Turkmenistan outlines a roadmap for the development of the north-south transit corridor through Turkmenistan. This development positions the route as a pivotal component, overshadowing alternatives through the Caucasus or the Caspian Sea. Secondly, Turkmenistan announced its intention to sign an agreement with Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Romania to establish a “Caspian Sea–Black Sea” corridor. This corridor is set to become a major part of east-west transit projects, long sought after by China, Western countries, and regional actors in Central Asia and the South Caucasus.
Historically, Russia and Iran have been the primary advocates for the north-south corridor, while China and the West have promoted the east-west corridor. Until recently, these plans often bypassed Turkmenistan despite the advantages of shorter, more efficient routes through its territory. Turkmenistan’s recent decision to open up to international transit has not only sparked renewed interest but also increased regional cooperation and competition.
The changes in Turkmenistan’s stance are partly driven by internal challenges and a desire to play a more active international role. Sanctions against Russia and Iran have heightened the importance of the north-south route, while instability in the South Caucasus has emphasized the need for reliable westward routes. As a result, Turkmenistan’s strategic positioning has become more attractive.
Balancing Competing Interests
Turkmenistan aims to balance the development of both transit routes through its territory, leveraging its position to benefit from competing international interests. This strategy aligns with Ashgabat’s traditional neutral and balanced foreign policy but is fraught with challenges due to the expansive regional agendas of Russia, China, Iran, and Western countries. Nonetheless, integrating into these international networks offers Turkmenistan a better opportunity than remaining isolated.
As a transit hub, Turkmenistan stands to gain economically and politically. Increased connectivity could improve domestic conditions and offer a pathway to alleviate poverty. However, this transition will likely be complex and fraught with potential for domestic upheaval.
Despite its strategic positioning, Turkmenistan remains one of the most isolated and authoritarian countries in the post-Soviet space. The population endures poverty, and the regime maintains control through subsidies, brute force, and suppression of potential opposition, including closing mosques and other institutions that could mobilize dissent. The country also faces significant water shortages and agricultural challenges, exacerbating domestic hardships.
Unlike other Central Asian nations, Turkmenistan has not allowed its citizens to work in Russia and send remittances home, a key factor in reducing poverty and tensions elsewhere in the region. Moreover, Turkmenistan has become increasingly monoethnic, with the departure of Russians and other ethnic groups. This homogeneity has fueled nationalism and highlighted tribal divisions within Turkmen society, which play a significant role in the country’s political dynamics.
The construction of new infrastructure to support the north-south and east-west corridors and the influx of foreign money and influence are likely to disrupt existing political and social arrangements. The regime’s ability to maintain stability through traditional means of control may be challenged by these new developments.
Turkmenistan’s transition from an isolated authoritarian state to an integral part of regional trade networks will be closely watched. The government in Ashgabat must navigate the complexities of increased foreign involvement while managing domestic pressures. The international community, historically inattentive to Turkmenistan, must now adapt to its emerging role and the potential for instability that could affect the broader region.
Turkmenistan’s emergence as a critical player in Central Asian transportation marks a significant shift in the region’s geopolitical landscape. The country’s strategic position as a hub for north-south and east-west trade routes offers substantial opportunities and challenges. While increased connectivity could bring economic benefits and improve domestic conditions, it also poses risks of domestic instability and increased geopolitical competition.
As Turkmenistan navigates this complex transition, its actions will have far-reaching implications for regional stability and international trade. The international community must remain vigilant and adaptable, recognizing Turkmenistan’s evolving role and the potential for both positive and negative outcomes.
In summary, Turkmenistan’s newfound prominence in regional transit networks underscores its strategic importance and highlights the need for careful management of both international relations and domestic affairs. The coming years will be crucial in determining how Turkmenistan balances these competing pressures and what impact its actions will have on the broader Central Asian region.
