The United States has “evidence” that North Korean troops have been deployed to Russia, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said on Wednesday, adding a new dimension to the ongoing geopolitical tensions stemming from the Russia-Ukraine war. Austin indicated that it remains unclear exactly what Pyongyang’s forces are doing in Russia, but warnings from both South Korean and Ukrainian intelligence agencies suggest that North Korean troops are preparing to join Russia’s side in the war.
“If they’re a co-belligerent, their intention is to participate in this war on Russia’s behalf, that is a very, very serious issue, and it will have impacts not only in Europe — it will also impact things in the Indo-Pacific as well,” Austin said in a briefing at the Pentagon.
This development signals a potential shift in the war’s dynamics, further complicating the conflict and raising the stakes for international players, especially in the West and Asia. The potential involvement of North Korean troops represents a widening of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s military campaign and may prompt stronger reactions from NATO and other Western allies.
South Korea’s National Intelligence Service (NIS) reported that Pyongyang had already begun deploying four brigades, comprising 12,000 troops, to Russia. These units include 1,500 special forces soldiers who are reportedly already on Russian soil. According to Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence Directorate, North Korean troops are being trained in Russia and will be combat-ready by November 1.
Budanov further elaborated that the first group of 2,600 troops will be sent to the Russian region of Kursk, a strategic area that saw a surprise incursion by Ukrainian forces in late summer. However, there is still uncertainty about where the rest of the North Korean forces will be deployed within Russia or in Ukraine.
Unverified footage of North Korean soldiers at a Russian military base was circulated on pro-Kremlin Telegram channels last Friday, prompting widespread speculation. Despite these reports, the Kremlin has denied the presence of North Korean soldiers in Russia. Dmitry Peskov, Putin’s spokesperson, labeled the videos “fake news” and accused the U.S. and South Korea of providing “contradictory information” about the situation.
The deployment of North Korean troops to assist Russia, if confirmed, would mark a significant shift in the conflict, which has already drawn in various international players either through direct involvement or through military aid. The Kremlin’s ability to attract foreign military support from North Korea — one of the most isolated countries in the world — could embolden Russia as it faces increasing pressure on the battlefield.
North Korea’s potential involvement would be more than just a symbolic gesture. North Korean forces, particularly its special forces, are known for their rigorous training, discipline, and experience in guerrilla warfare tactics. Their deployment could give Russia a much-needed infusion of manpower and may influence the course of the war, particularly as Russia faces significant casualties and equipment shortages due to sustained Ukrainian counteroffensives.
Furthermore, this move could escalate the situation beyond Europe, drawing the attention of major players in the Indo-Pacific region, such as South Korea, Japan, and even China. The geopolitical ramifications of North Korea entering the Russia-Ukraine war extend beyond the immediate conflict and pose a challenge to global stability.
Secretary Austin’s comments suggest that the U.S. is still evaluating North Korea’s motivations and what it stands to gain from assisting Russia. One likely incentive could be military technology or resources, as Russia has reportedly been seeking arms and ammunition from Pyongyang. In June 2024, Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un signed a comprehensive strategic partnership agreement that includes military cooperation, marking a deepening of relations between the two nations.
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte raised alarms earlier this week, stating that the deployment of North Korean troops to Russia “would mark a significant escalation” in the conflict. On Monday, NATO formally requested South Korea to send a delegation to brief alliance members on the situation and the intelligence reports coming from Seoul.
The NATO-Russia rivalry is at a delicate stage, with Western nations already heavily involved in providing arms, financial support, and intelligence to Ukraine. An open North Korean participation in the war could lead to increased pressure on NATO countries to intensify their involvement, either through more direct military assistance to Ukraine or through measures aimed at curbing Pyongyang’s involvement.
One of the key questions arising from this situation is China’s role in the evolving alliance between North Korea and Russia. China has long been North Korea’s most important economic and diplomatic partner, but it has maintained a relatively neutral stance in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. While Beijing has not openly supported Russia’s military actions in Ukraine, it has refrained from condemning them, focusing instead on maintaining regional stability.
However, with North Korea’s potential involvement in the war, Beijing may find itself in a difficult position. Supporting Pyongyang’s actions could strain China’s relations with the West, particularly as it tries to manage ongoing tensions with the U.S. over trade, technology, and security issues in the South China Sea. On the other hand, distancing itself from North Korea could weaken its influence over the isolated regime, something Beijing is unlikely to risk.
China’s next moves will be critical in shaping the regional response to the growing Russia-North Korea partnership. How Beijing navigates this delicate situation will likely determine the level of international involvement from other Asian countries in the conflict.
For Kim Jong Un, deepening ties with Russia could provide significant strategic benefits. North Korea’s economy has been severely weakened by international sanctions and the COVID-19 pandemic, leading to widespread food shortages and an over-reliance on China for essential goods. Aligning with Russia not only offers North Korea a lifeline in terms of economic and military assistance but also helps the regime assert itself on the global stage.
Kim’s decision to support Russia militarily could be driven by several factors:
- Access to Russian military technology: North Korea has long sought to modernize its military capabilities. In exchange for manpower, it is likely that Pyongyang will receive advanced weapons systems, intelligence sharing, and technology transfers from Moscow.
- Strengthening domestic legitimacy: By aligning with Russia, Kim can portray himself domestically as a key global player, standing up against what he perceives as Western imperialism. This helps maintain internal support in a country where the ruling regime tightly controls information.
- Circumventing sanctions: Engaging in direct military cooperation with Russia could allow North Korea to bypass some of the international sanctions that have crippled its economy. In return for military support, Pyongyang may receive goods and resources outside the scope of sanctions enforcement.
The entry of North Korean troops into the Russia-Ukraine war carries significant risks for global stability. In Europe, NATO countries may feel compelled to escalate their support for Ukraine, while Russia could double down on its alliances with autocratic regimes, further isolating itself from the international community.
In the Indo-Pacific, the possibility of North Korean troops gaining combat experience alongside Russian forces raises security concerns, particularly for South Korea and Japan, both of whom are U.S. allies. The fear is that North Korea could eventually use this experience and the enhanced military capabilities it gains from Russia in future conflicts on the Korean Peninsula or against other regional adversaries.
Furthermore, the deepening Russia-North Korea partnership could embolden other authoritarian regimes to seek alliances, challenging the international order and threatening global security. Western nations may be forced to reevaluate their strategies in both Europe and Asia as they confront the possibility of a broader, multi-front geopolitical conflict.
