Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky embarked on a whirlwind diplomatic mission across European capitals to drum up support from Ukraine’s Western allies ahead of a planned summer offensive against Russian forces. That effort yielded some success, with Ukraine receiving additional aid and commitments of continued assistance. However, the offensive itself fell short of its ambitious objectives. Eighteen months later, as the war with Russia drags on with no end in sight, Zelensky has returned to Europe, hoping to reinvigorate Western support, this time centered around a newly proposed “victory plan.”
Zelensky’s latest tour took him to London, Paris, Rome, and Berlin in October 2024, as he sought backing for his vision of how Ukraine could secure a decisive win on the battlefield. Yet, both Ukraine’s military fortunes and Zelensky’s diplomatic efforts now face significant obstacles. While he managed to secure promises of continued military assistance, there is little sign that Western nations are willing to provide the kind of increased support Zelensky believes is necessary for Ukraine to achieve victory.
As the war enters its third year, the situation on the battlefield remains difficult for Ukraine. While Western military aid has allowed Ukraine to hold off Russian advances and mount occasional counteroffensives, the prospect of a clear-cut Ukrainian victory seems increasingly remote. The summer offensive of 2023, though initially promising, bogged down amidst stiff Russian resistance and harsh weather conditions. Ukrainian forces made only limited territorial gains, and key strategic objectives, such as recapturing Crimea, remain elusive.
Now, with winter approaching and battlefield conditions likely to worsen, Zelensky is not only contending with a tough military situation but also facing growing challenges on the diplomatic front. In contrast to his 2023 European tour, when Western enthusiasm for aiding Ukraine remained high, Zelensky now confronts increasing reluctance among his key allies to escalate their support further.
Zelensky’s latest diplomatic efforts were initially aimed at securing crucial commitments from Western leaders during a high-profile meeting of the Ramstein group, scheduled for mid-October. The Ramstein group, named after the U.S. Air Force base in Germany where it convenes, is an informal coalition of some 50 countries that have supported Ukraine since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022.
This particular meeting was supposed to be especially important, with U.S. President Joe Biden scheduled to attend after a state visit to Germany. The gathering was expected to be at the head-of-state level, with the possibility of significant new announcements regarding military and financial support for Ukraine. However, Biden was forced to cancel his trip due to the looming threat of Hurricane Milton hitting Florida. As a result, the Ramstein meeting has been postponed, and Zelensky lost a critical opportunity to present his victory plan to his most influential backers.
While Biden’s visit to Germany has been rescheduled for October 18, 2024, there is no word yet on when the Ramstein meeting might take place. This postponement leaves Zelensky in a precarious position, as he must continue to rally support without a firm platform for presenting his case to key allies.
Though details of Zelensky’s victory plan remain largely under wraps, some aspects have leaked, offering insight into what the Ukrainian president is seeking from his allies.
- Accelerated NATO Membership: Zelensky is pushing for a faster path to full NATO membership for Ukraine. He hopes this would not only provide security guarantees but also send a strong message to Russia about Western unity and resolve.
- A NATO-Enforced No-Fly Zone Over Western Ukraine: To protect critical infrastructure and civilian populations from Russian airstrikes, Zelensky wants NATO to enforce a no-fly zone over Western Ukraine, though this idea has seen little enthusiasm in Western capitals.
- More Air Defense Systems: Ukraine is requesting additional air-defense systems to bolster its ability to protect cities and strategic sites from Russian missile and drone attacks.
- Permission to Use Western-Supplied Long-Range Missiles Against Russia: Perhaps the most controversial element of the plan, Zelensky wants to be allowed to use Western-supplied long-range missiles, such as U.S.-made ATACMS, to strike targets deep inside Russian territory.
- Delivery of German Taurus Ballistic Missiles: Ukraine has also requested the delivery of Germany’s long-range Taurus ballistic missiles to enhance its ability to target Russian positions beyond the front lines.
In addition to these demands, Zelensky is seeking significant investments from Western nations to bolster Ukraine’s domestic defense industry, which he argues will be critical for sustaining the war effort over the long term.
However, Zelensky’s requests have largely been met with skepticism. Most of the demands are considered non-starters in key Western capitals. The push for NATO membership remains mired in diplomatic hurdles, with opposition from Slovakia and Hungary, among others. Even more damaging to Ukraine’s aspirations is the hesitance from Washington and Berlin to back an accelerated NATO accession timeline.
The divisions among Ukraine’s Western allies were already evident during Zelensky’s trip to New York and Washington in September 2024. While Zelensky was able to secure $8 billion in additional U.S. security assistance, there has been little progress on loosening the restrictions Western nations have placed on Ukraine’s use of military aid against Russian territory. The U.S. remains particularly wary of escalating the conflict by allowing Ukraine to strike deep within Russia, fearing that such moves could provoke a dangerous Russian response.
The issue of NATO membership is similarly fraught. While NATO’s official stance is that Ukraine’s future lies in the alliance, there has been no concrete movement toward bringing Ukraine into the fold. Recent NATO summits in Vilnius (2023) and Washington (2024) reaffirmed the alliance’s support for Ukraine but stopped short of providing a clear timeline for membership.
Key NATO members, including the U.S. and Germany, remain cautious, balancing their desire to support Ukraine with concerns about provoking Russia or becoming directly embroiled in the conflict. The Slovak prime minister, Robert Fico, has openly stated that he will veto Ukraine’s accession to NATO, and Hungary’s Viktor Orbán remains a vocal opponent of Kiev’s membership aspirations.
During his October 2024 European tour, Zelensky achieved some diplomatic victories. After meeting with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on October 11, Zelensky secured a new aid package worth €1.4 billion (approximately $1.52 billion). This package, to be delivered by Germany, Belgium, Denmark, and Norway, includes air defenses, tanks, drones, and artillery – all crucial to Ukraine’s defense efforts.
However, one critical item remains absent: the Taurus ballistic missiles. Zelensky had made these long-range missiles a top priority in his discussions with Germany, but Scholz has thus far refused to approve their delivery. This omission was a significant blow to Zelensky’s victory plan, as the Taurus missiles would provide Ukraine with much-needed long-range strike capability.
Zelensky’s meetings in London, Paris, and Rome were similarly disappointing. While Western leaders reiterated their commitment to supporting Ukraine, none offered the decisive increases in military aid that Zelensky was seeking. The Ukrainian president walked away from his European tour with no firm commitments on several of his key demands, including the no-fly zone and NATO membership.
While the overall level of Western support for Ukraine remains high, there is little indication that Zelensky’s allies are willing to escalate their assistance in a way that would dramatically alter the course of the war. The new NATO secretary-general, Mark Rutte, visited Kiev on October 3 to reaffirm the alliance’s ongoing support, but his visit yielded no new announcements of military aid or strategic shifts.
The European Union (EU) has been more forthcoming, announcing on October 10 that it will extend its training mission for Ukrainian troops until 2026. The EU’s military training program has so far trained 60,000 Ukrainian soldiers, accounting for about half of all Ukrainian troops trained abroad. This contribution, while significant, is unlikely to change the overall trajectory of the war without more robust military aid.
The EU’s total aid to Ukraine has now reached €162 billion, with the U.S. providing $84 billion. While these figures are impressive, Zelensky’s demands suggest that what Ukraine’s Western partners are currently offering is barely enough to prevent defeat, let alone enable victory.
As Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to escalate his country’s war effort to meet each new challenge, Ukraine is finding it increasingly difficult to keep pace without more substantial Western support. For Zelensky, the postponed Ramstein meeting represents a lost opportunity to secure the backing needed for Ukraine’s victory plan.
Without a decisive shift in Western support, Ukraine risks losing the war it has fought so valiantly to defend its sovereignty. Zelensky’s diplomatic efforts, while admirable, may ultimately fall short unless his allies recognize the urgency of providing more significant and sustained military aid.
Ukraine’s struggle now depends on whether its Western partners are willing to step up and provide the resources needed to match Russia’s growing war effort. The rescheduled Ramstein meeting may be a last chance for the West to change gears decisively, and Ukraine can only hope that its allies are prepared to rise to the occasion.
