Uzbekistan is at a turning point in its defense strategy. For decades, the country has relied heavily on Russian-made military equipment, much of it inherited from the Soviet Union. But today, amid shifting geopolitical currents and constrained budgets, Uzbekistan is eyeing a major modernization of its air force—and it’s looking beyond Moscow for options.
The country is currently considering two high-profile fighter jets to replace its aging fleet: the French Dassault Rafale and the Chinese Chengdu J-10C. Both aircraft offer advanced capabilities and signal different strategic alignments. But this isn’t just about hardware. It’s about where Uzbekistan sees its future—militarily, economically, and politically.
Uzbekistan’s air force has long relied on Soviet-era aircraft like the MiG-29 and Su-27. While capable in their time, these fighters are increasingly obsolete in today’s fast-evolving battlespace. Maintenance is a growing challenge. Replacement parts are hard to come by, and Russia—still struggling under the weight of sanctions and domestic military demands due to the war in Ukraine—has been slow to deliver new systems.
This growing gap has pushed Tashkent to look elsewhere.
The interest in the Rafale and the J-10C marks a potential departure from decades of military dependency on Russia. It signals something deeper: Uzbekistan is exploring new alliances, and in doing so, it is sending a message about its desire for defense diversification.
A major moment came in November 2023, when French President Emmanuel Macron made a landmark visit to Uzbekistan. During this visit, discussions reportedly advanced over a potential deal for 24 Rafale fighter jets.
The Rafale—a twin-engine, 4.5-generation multirole fighter—is widely regarded as one of the most capable aircraft in the world. It has seen combat in Libya, Mali, Iraq, and Syria, and it carries a reputation for being a robust, reliable, and technologically advanced system.
This visit wasn’t just symbolic. France is actively pushing for deeper strategic ties in Central Asia, and a defense deal with Uzbekistan would be a major step forward for Paris’s ambitions in the region.
Meanwhile, Uzbekistan is seriously evaluating the Chinese-made J-10C. Manufactured by Chengdu Aerospace Corporation, the J-10C is a modern single-engine fighter jet equipped with advanced radar systems, air-to-air and air-to-ground weaponry, and modern electronics.
Unlike the Rafale, the J-10C has not been extensively tested in combat, but its performance on paper is impressive. It features the Chinese Type 1475 AESA radar, similar in concept to the French Thales RBE2 used in the Rafale. It also supports a wide array of Chinese-made missiles, including the long-range PL-15.
Crucially, the J-10C is significantly cheaper. Priced at an estimated US$40–50 million per unit, it offers Uzbekistan a chance to modernize without breaking the bank. In contrast, the Rafale is reported to cost upwards of US$100 million per unit with weapons and support packages included.
On the surface, both jets offer similar baseline capabilities: supersonic speed, radar-evading design, advanced avionics, and multirole functionality. But dig deeper, and the differences become clearer.
The Rafale is widely considered to have superior sensor fusion capabilities. Its RBE2 AESA radar, paired with the SPECTRA electronic warfare suite, offers a battlefield awareness advantage. SPECTRA not only detects and jams incoming threats but also actively guides the aircraft away from danger zones.
The J-10C features a similar EW system, but analysts say it likely lags behind in terms of range, adaptability, and real-world testing. Additionally, sensor fusion on the J-10C is less documented, making assessments murky.
Rafale fighters are armed with an array of Western missiles, including the MICA (short to medium-range), the Meteor (long-range), and the SCALP (precision ground attack). These systems have proven their worth in combat.
The J-10C, on the other hand, boasts Chinese equivalents: the PL-10 for short-range engagements, the PL-12 and SD-10A for medium-range, and the PL-15 for long-range. The PL-15 is said to rival the Meteor in range, though operational reliability remains less well known outside China.
The J-10C is faster on paper, topping out at Mach 2.2 compared to the Rafale’s Mach 1.8. But the Rafale has greater operational range—3,700 km to the J-10C’s 2,940 km—making it better suited for longer missions or broader regional coverage.
The Rafale carries a powerful 30mm cannon capable of firing 2,500 rounds per minute. The J-10C’s 23mm cannon is effective but has less punch. In close dogfights, this could be a critical difference.
Beyond performance metrics, the choice between Rafale and J-10C reflects deeper geopolitical considerations.
Opting for the Rafale would align Uzbekistan more closely with Western defense frameworks. It could open doors to joint exercises, NATO-compatible systems, and broader access to Western defense technology. However, it may also invite diplomatic pressure from Russia and increase operational costs due to Western systems’ complex maintenance demands.
France, for its part, has a growing interest in Central Asia. With Russia distracted and the U.S. in partial retreat from the region, Paris sees an opportunity to assert influence. A Rafale deal would serve both economic and strategic goals for France.
The J-10C offers Uzbekistan a more affordable path to modernization with fewer political strings. Chinese arms deals tend to focus on the transaction, not the politics. There are no demands about alignment or regional posturing.
For a country seeking to maintain neutrality and sovereignty in its foreign policy, that’s an attractive proposition. China is also already embedded in Uzbekistan’s economy, especially through infrastructure and energy projects linked to the Belt and Road Initiative. Adding military cooperation deepens an already growing partnership.
Russia’s diminished capacity to act as Central Asia’s arms provider is a major backdrop to this decision. Sanctions and war have drained its industrial base and clogged production lines. Even countries that were once loyal military clients are exploring alternatives.
Uzbekistan isn’t the only one. Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and even Armenia have all flirted with military diversification in recent years. The message is clear: Russia’s monopoly is over.
China is eager to fill the gap, and it’s offering packages that are hard to refuse—quick delivery, training programs, and systems compatible with existing Chinese hardware. For Uzbekistan, already using Chinese drones and radar systems, the J-10C fits naturally into the picture.
While performance matters, so does practicality.
Maintaining a fleet of Rafales means investing in Western infrastructure, training, and long-term support contracts—all of which are costly. The upside is battle-tested performance, high-end systems, and strong diplomatic ties.
The J-10C, while arguably less refined, offers a lower entry cost and simpler logistics. It also doesn’t require major shifts in Uzbekistan’s current defense posture. Maintenance and support can be localized more easily, and Chinese advisers are already active in the country.
Air Marshal Anil Chopra (retired), a former test pilot with the Indian Air Force, has flown both Western and Russian platforms. He says the comparison between Rafale and J-10C is “somewhat unfair.”
“Both are technically 4.5-generation jets,” he noted in a recent statement. “But the Rafale is ahead in terms of electronics, combat experience, and system integration. It is a proven war machine.”
Still, he acknowledges the J-10C’s value proposition: “It’s capable, it’s cheaper, and it’s improving fast.”
This fighter jet decision is about more than military performance. It’s about national identity, sovereignty, and strategic direction. It’s a test of how Uzbekistan wants to be seen in a post-Soviet world.
Choosing France is choosing visibility in the West, access to cutting-edge technology, and a seat at larger geopolitical tables. Choosing China is about autonomy, affordability, and pragmatic partnerships.
Tashkent hasn’t announced a final decision yet. But whichever jet it picks will say a lot about the country it wants to be. And for observers across Central Asia and beyond, Uzbekistan’s choice could be a sign of things to come.
