Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly emphasized Russia’s nuclear capabilities as a cornerstone of its defense strategy, using it as a means to dissuade the West from intensifying support for Ukraine.
From revising Russia’s nuclear doctrine to holding nuclear drills with ally Belarus, Putin has signaled his intent to leverage Russia’s vast nuclear arsenal to offset NATO’s conventional military superiority and protect Russia’s sovereignty. With a nuclear inventory estimated at 5,580 warheads, Russia holds the largest stockpile in the world, accounting for nearly half of the global total alongside the United States.
The Modernization of Russia’s Nuclear Arsenal
Russia’s Strategic Nuclear Forces
Since assuming power in 2000, Vladimir Putin has prioritized the modernization of Russia’s aging Soviet-era nuclear arsenal. This effort has primarily focused on upgrading the strategic nuclear triad, which consists of:
- Ground-based Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs): Russia has replaced many of its older missiles with modern Yars ICBMs, which are mobile and more difficult to target. The newer Sarmat ICBMs, dubbed “Satan II” in the West, are set to replace Soviet-built R-36M missiles. While the Sarmat’s development has faced setbacks, including a failed test in 2023, they are expected to form the backbone of Russia’s land-based deterrent.
- Nuclear Submarines: The Russian Navy has commissioned seven Borei-class submarines, each equipped with 16 Bulava nuclear missiles. These submarines, which can launch their payloads from underwater, provide a stealthy second-strike capability. Moscow plans to build five additional Borei-class submarines, signaling its commitment to the submarine leg of the triad.
- Strategic Bombers: Russia continues to rely on Soviet-era Tu-95 and Tu-160 bombers, both capable of carrying nuclear-tipped cruise missiles. Production of a modernized version of the supersonic Tu-160 has restarted, with upgrades including new avionics and engines. These bombers provide Moscow with the ability to launch nuclear strikes from the air and serve as a visible show of force.
Tactical Nuclear Weapons
Russia’s non-strategic, or tactical, nuclear weapons, numbering between 1,000 and 2,000, have gained increased importance in recent years. These weapons, designed for battlefield use, are significantly less powerful than their strategic counterparts but are seen as a deterrent against NATO’s conventional forces.
- Iskander Missiles: Russia’s precision-guided Iskander missiles, which have a range of 500 kilometers (310 miles), can carry either conventional or nuclear warheads. The Iskander system has been used extensively in conventional strikes against Ukraine, but its nuclear capability underscores its role in deterring NATO forces.
- Kinzhal Hypersonic Missiles: The Kinzhal, launched from MiG-31 fighter jets, is another key tactical weapon. Its hypersonic speed and ability to evade missile defenses make it a formidable tool in Russia’s arsenal. Like the Iskander, it can be equipped with either conventional or nuclear warheads and has seen use in the conflict with Ukraine.
These tactical weapons, combined with Russia’s strategic forces, give Moscow a robust nuclear deterrent, allowing it to offset NATO’s superior conventional military capabilities.
Nuclear Deterrence in Russia’s Military Doctrine
- Nuclear Doctrine Changes
Russia’s nuclear doctrine has long been predicated on the concept of mutually assured destruction (MAD), the idea that any nuclear attack would invite a devastating retaliatory strike. The doctrine previously allowed for the use of nuclear weapons only in response to a nuclear attack or a conventional assault that threatened the “very existence” of the Russian state.
However, Putin’s revisions to the nuclear doctrine in 2023 have introduced significant ambiguities. The new doctrine allows for the use of nuclear weapons in response to a conventional attack by a non-nuclear state, provided that the state is supported by a nuclear power. This is a direct warning to NATO and the United States, given their support for Ukraine.
Putin has also lowered the threshold for nuclear use in the event of a massive air attack, potentially allowing for a nuclear response to a large-scale conventional strike. These changes are intended to create uncertainty in the minds of NATO planners, deterring them from escalating their involvement in Ukraine.
- Nuclear Exercises with Belarus
In a further show of force, Russia has conducted nuclear exercises with Belarus, its close ally and neighbor. These drills, which took place in May 2023, involved battlefield nuclear weapons and were aimed at preparing both countries’ forces to operate in a nuclear war environment. The exercises were a direct message to the West that Russia is willing to deploy nuclear weapons to protect its interests in Ukraine and elsewhere in Eastern Europe.
Russia’s Nuclear Posture
- The End of Arms Control?
The U.S.-Russia arms control framework, which has helped prevent the unchecked proliferation of nuclear weapons since the Cold War, is now hanging by a thread. In February 2023, Putin suspended Russia’s participation in the New START Treaty, the last remaining bilateral arms reduction agreement between Moscow and Washington. New START, which is set to expire in 2026, limits both nations to no more than 1,550 deployed nuclear warheads and 700 delivery systems (missiles and bombers).
While Putin vowed to abide by New START’s limits, the suspension of Russia’s participation signals a dangerous erosion of the arms control regime. The Kremlin has repeatedly dismissed Washington’s calls to resume negotiations, citing the United States’ strategic objectives in Ukraine as an obstacle.
Putin has also revived the specter of intermediate-range nuclear missiles by announcing plans to produce weapons previously banned under the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty. The 1987 INF Treaty, which eliminated an entire class of nuclear missiles with ranges between 500 and 5,500 kilometers (310 to 3,410 miles), collapsed in 2019 after both Moscow and Washington accused each other of violations.
In 2023, Putin declared that Russia would develop new ground-based intermediate-range missiles in response to the potential deployment of similar U.S. systems to Europe. This decision threatens to reignite a Cold War-style arms race in Europe, as both sides seek to match each other’s capabilities.
- Nuclear Testing
In a sign of growing hawkish sentiment within Russia’s political and military establishment, there have been calls for the resumption of nuclear testing. While Russia has observed a moratorium on nuclear tests since the Soviet Union’s collapse, some officials argue that a new round of tests would demonstrate Moscow’s resolve and send a powerful message to the West.
In 2018, Putin showcased several next-generation nuclear weapons systems, including the Avangard hypersonic glide vehicle, the Poseidon nuclear-powered underwater drone, and the Burevestnik nuclear-powered cruise missile. These weapons, designed to circumvent U.S. missile defenses, represent a significant leap in Russia’s nuclear capabilities.
While Putin has refrained from conducting new tests so far, he has indicated that Russia would resume testing if the U.S. did so first. Any such move would effectively end the global moratorium on nuclear testing that has been in place since the early 1990s, further destabilizing the already fragile global arms control regime.
Nuclear Deterrence: A New Arms Race?
As tensions between Russia and the West continue to rise, nuclear deterrence has once again become a central issue in global security. Putin’s efforts to modernize Russia’s nuclear arsenal, revise its doctrine, and develop new weapons systems indicate that Moscow is betting heavily on its atomic arsenal as a means of deterring Western intervention in Ukraine and securing its long-term interests.
The suspension of the New START Treaty, combined with the possible resumption of nuclear tests and the development of intermediate-range missiles, raises the specter of a new nuclear arms race. The breakdown of arms control agreements, coupled with technological advances in hypersonic weapons and other systems, means that the world is entering a new era of nuclear uncertainty.
For the U.S. and its NATO allies, the challenge will be to navigate this increasingly volatile landscape without triggering an escalation that could lead to a catastrophic nuclear exchange. Washington has urged Moscow to return to the negotiating table, but as long as the war in Ukraine continues, the prospects for meaningful dialogue on nuclear arms control remain bleak.
Vladimir Putin’s nuclear strategy has taken on renewed significance as Russia faces increasing pressure from the West over its invasion of Ukraine. By modernizing its nuclear arsenal, revising its doctrine, and hinting at a resumption of nuclear tests, Moscow is sending a clear message: Russia’s nuclear weapons remain its ultimate guarantor of sovereignty and security. With global arms control agreements on the verge of collapse and a new arms race on the horizon, the world faces an uncertain and potentially dangerous future.
