As the Indian Air Force (IAF) advances its long-pending proposal to acquire 114 Rafale fighter jets to be manufactured domestically, Pakistan is reportedly accelerating a dual-pronged strategy aimed at preserving regional airpower parity. In a direct response to India’s expanding combat aviation capability, the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) is preparing to significantly enlarge its fleet of Chinese-made J-10CE fighters while fast-tracking plans to induct fifth-generation J-35 stealth aircraft.
The IAF has moved closer to securing what would be one of the largest fighter procurement deals in its history under the Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft (MRFA) programme. According to reports, the air force has formally approached India’s Ministry of Defence with a proposal to manufacture the French-origin Rafale jets in India, aligning the acquisition with the government’s flagship “Make in India” initiative.
For the IAF, the deal is critical. India’s fighter squadron strength has steadily declined due to the retirement of ageing Soviet-era MiG-21s and delays in inducting replacements. With the sanctioned strength standing at 42 squadrons and current numbers hovering around the low 30s, the MRFA programme is seen as essential to arrest the erosion of combat capability. Domestic production of the Rafale is expected to ensure long-term logistical support, deeper technology transfer, and greater operational availability compared with outright imports.
Across the border, Pakistan is recalibrating its airpower plans in response to the prospect of a larger and more advanced Indian Rafale fleet. Faced with fiscal constraints and limited access to Western combat aircraft, the PAF is pivoting decisively back to its primary defence partner, China. Sources indicate that Pakistan is abandoning hopes of maintaining a highly diversified fighter inventory in favour of platforms that can be inducted quickly and in significant numbers.
At the core of this approach is the J-10CE multirole fighter, which Pakistan inducted in recent years specifically to counter India’s initial batch of 36 Rafales. Often dubbed the “Vigorous Dragon,” the J-10CE is equipped with an Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) radar and advanced long-range air-to-air missiles such as the PL-15, giving it credible beyond-visual-range engagement capability. The PAF is reportedly finalising plans to order an additional 60 to 70 J-10CEs, a move aimed at replacing ageing Mirage-III and F-7 squadrons on a near one-to-one basis and preventing a sharp numerical decline in frontline strength.
Beyond maintaining numbers, Pakistan is also looking to leapfrog technologically. In parallel with the J-10CE expansion, the PAF is aggressively pursuing fifth-generation capabilities to offset India’s future Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) programme. Reports suggest negotiations are under way for the acquisition of around 40 J-35 stealth fighters—the land-based variant of China’s carrier-capable J-35.
Although the J-35 is still undergoing testing and has not yet entered full operational service with the People’s Liberation Army Air Force, open-source intelligence indicates that Pakistani pilots may already be training on the platform in China. If inducted, the J-35 would become Pakistan’s first stealth aircraft, providing low-observable penetration capabilities designed to challenge sophisticated air defence networks. Analysts view this as an attempt to create a “technological surprise” in South Asia, echoing the strategic impact of Pakistan’s introduction of F-16s in the 1980s.
Despite its growing tilt towards Beijing, Pakistan continues to rely on its American-made F-16 fleet, which remains central to its air defence posture. To sustain these aircraft, the United States recently approved a $686 million support package focused on maintenance, hardware upgrades, and interoperability enhancements such as Link-16 data links. Notably, the package excludes new weapons, underscoring Washington’s intent to avoid altering the regional military balance.
Looking further ahead, the PAF continues to pursue Project AZM, its long-term vision for an indigenous advanced fighter. Acknowledging the steep technological challenges involved, Pakistan has also sought closer cooperation with Türkiye, exploring participation in Ankara’s KAAN fifth-generation fighter programme as a potential hedge against overdependence on any single supplier.
The Indian subcontinent is thus entering a new, capital-intensive phase of airpower competition. While India seeks to consolidate its advantage through Western technology and domestic manufacturing, Pakistan is doubling down on its “iron brother” alliance with China. The planned induction of massed J-10CEs alongside elite J-35 stealth fighters signals Islamabad’s willingness to stretch limited economic resources to preserve air defence credibility in the face of a rapidly modernising Indian Air Force.
