In a stark warning from the British Ministry of Defense (MoD), a recent intelligence report reveals that Russia launched over 1,300 One-Way Attack Uncrewed Aerial Vehicles (OWA-UAVs) into Ukraine during September 2024 alone. This marks the highest number of drone strikes in a single month since the start of the conflict, signaling a significant escalation in the use of these unmanned aerial systems. The British MoD also cautions that Russia is likely to surpass this figure in October, reflecting a growing trend of intensified aerial assaults against Ukrainian targets.
OWA-UAVs, often referred to as “kamikaze drones” due to their self-destructive nature, have become a central component of Russia’s evolving military strategy in Ukraine. Unlike conventional drones used for surveillance, these drones are designed to strike targets without returning to base, making them cost-effective and expendable. Their ability to be deployed in large numbers poses significant challenges to Ukrainian air defense systems, which are forced to counter both traditional missile attacks and the increasing wave of drone strikes.
These drones primarily target critical Ukrainian infrastructure, particularly energy facilities. As winter approaches, the destruction of power stations, substations, and other utilities has the potential to cause widespread blackouts, threatening civilian life and military operations alike. The British MoD report underscores the growing threat posed by these UAVs, as Russia appears to be shifting towards a strategy aimed at exhausting Ukraine’s air defense resources and weakening its economic resilience by targeting its energy grid.
The unprecedented surge of drone attacks in September marks a significant turning point in the conflict. The use of over 1,300 OWA-UAVs in a single month is a testament to the increasing reliance on drone warfare by Russian forces. This surge, experts suggest, is not an isolated event but rather part of a broader trend. As Russia builds up its domestic production capabilities, the frequency and scale of such attacks are expected to increase further.
While it remains uncertain whether Russia can sustain this aggressive rate of UAV strikes throughout the year, intelligence reports indicate that Moscow is likely expanding its capacity to produce these drones domestically. Previously reliant on Iranian-supplied UAVs, such as the Shahed-136 and Shahed-131, Russia is believed to be ramping up its domestic drone production to avoid potential supply chain disruptions and sanctions. This shift in supply lines is seen as a critical element in Russia’s long-term strategy to maintain and even amplify its ability to carry out large-scale drone attacks on Ukraine.
The Key Drones in Russia’s Arsenal
Several types of OWA drones have been deployed by Russia in Ukraine, each with unique technical features and capabilities. These drones have proven to be effective in striking critical infrastructure and military targets, playing a crucial role in Russia’s strategy to degrade Ukraine’s defenses and disrupt its supply chains.
Shahed-136 (Geran-2): Developed by Iran and used extensively by Russian forces, the Shahed-136 is a long-range UAV with a range of approximately 2,500 kilometers. It is powered by a small engine and carries a warhead of around 40-50 kilograms, making it ideal for targeting static infrastructure such as energy facilities and supply depots. Although its speed is relatively slow, its low cost and ability to be deployed in large numbers have made it a key tool in Russia’s drone warfare campaign.
Shahed-131 (Geran-1): A smaller variant of the Shahed-136, the Shahed-131 shares a similar delta-wing design but has a shorter range of about 900 kilometers and a smaller payload of 10-15 kilograms. It is primarily used for shorter-range attacks on military targets, providing Russia with additional tactical flexibility.
Lancet Drone: Developed domestically by ZALA Aero, the Lancet drone represents a more advanced option in Russia’s arsenal. Equipped with electro-optical systems for greater precision, the Lancet can carry a payload of up to 3 kilograms and is capable of tactical strikes on specific targets such as artillery, vehicles, and air defense systems. Its modular design allows it to serve both surveillance and attack roles, making it a versatile tool in Russia’s drone operations.
The surge in drone attacks is putting immense pressure on Ukraine’s air defense systems, which are tasked with intercepting not only UAVs but also traditional missile strikes. While Ukrainian forces have been able to shoot down many of these drones, the sheer volume of attacks is straining their resources. OWA-UAVs, with their low cost and ability to swarm, are designed to overwhelm air defenses, forcing Ukraine to expend significant amounts of ammunition and resources to neutralize them.
The British MoD report suggests that Russia’s intensified use of drones is part of a broader strategy to exhaust Ukrainian air defense capabilities. By diverting attention away from other threats, such as ballistic and cruise missiles, Russia hopes to weaken Ukraine’s overall defense posture. This strategy has been particularly effective in targeting Ukraine’s energy grid, which is already under significant strain due to the ongoing conflict.
The relentless targeting of energy infrastructure by Russia’s OWA-UAVs has raised serious concerns in Kyiv and among Ukraine’s Western allies. As winter looms, the destruction of power stations and substations could lead to widespread blackouts, creating a humanitarian crisis in addition to the ongoing military challenges. In regions already hard-hit by the war, civilians may face life-threatening conditions as temperatures drop and access to basic utilities becomes increasingly precarious.
The impact of these strikes extends beyond civilian life, as Ukraine’s military operations are also dependent on a stable energy supply. Without electricity, communication networks, transportation systems, and other critical infrastructure will be severely compromised, limiting Ukraine’s ability to sustain its defense efforts.
In response to the growing drone threat, Ukraine has called on its Western allies for additional support, particularly in the form of advanced air defense systems capable of intercepting UAVs. While Ukraine has received a range of military aid from the West, including missile defense systems, the rising number of OWA-UAV attacks has highlighted the need for specialized anti-drone systems.
To counter the drone threat, Ukrainian forces are also employing a range of tactics, including electronic warfare systems and anti-drone measures. These efforts have had some success in mitigating the impact of drone strikes, but the scale of the current campaign underscores the need for more robust and comprehensive air defense capabilities.
One of the most significant developments outlined in the British MoD report is the suggestion that Russia is ramping up its domestic production of OWA-UAVs. Previously reliant on imports from Iran, Russia is believed to be expanding its manufacturing capabilities to produce drones within its own borders. This shift is seen as a response to the risks posed by international sanctions and potential disruptions in supply chains.
By building up its domestic production capabilities, Russia aims to achieve greater self-sufficiency in its drone warfare efforts. This development is likely to have long-term implications for the conflict, as it could enable Russia to sustain and even intensify its drone attacks on Ukraine in the months to come.
As Russia escalates its OWA-UAV campaign, Ukraine finds itself under increasing pressure on multiple fronts. The British MoD report highlights not only the unprecedented scale of drone attacks but also the potential for further intensification as Russia builds up its domestic production capabilities. The coming months, particularly with the onset of winter, are expected to be a critical period in the conflict, with both sides seeking to gain the upper hand in what has become a grinding war of attrition.
