In a move that could redefine the military balance in South Asia, the Indian Air Force (IAF) is reportedly preparing to acquire 40 additional Rafale fighter jets from France under a government-to-government deal. As reported by Indian defense portal Bharat Shakti, this procurement would bring India’s total Rafale fleet to 76 aircraft—positioning the country’s air force as one of the most formidable in the Indo-Pacific region.
This prospective acquisition, if finalized, is not just about bolstering numbers. It reflects the strategic urgency felt by Indian defense planners amid rising tensions with both China and Pakistan. The decision underscores India’s emphasis on speed, reliability, and proven performance over bureaucratic tendering delays, especially as regional threats evolve faster than domestic defense production can respond.
The last decade has seen India’s security environment become increasingly complex. The 2020 Galwan Valley clashes with China in eastern Ladakh, which led to the first combat deaths between the two nations in over four decades, acted as a wake-up call. Indian troops faced off with Chinese forces at dizzying altitudes, highlighting gaps in logistics, mobility, and, critically, air dominance in mountainous terrain.
Simultaneously, Pakistan’s induction of the J-10C—China’s fourth-generation multi-role fighter with AESA radar and PL-15 beyond-visual-range missiles—has intensified concerns about a coordinated two-front threat. In such a scenario, air superiority becomes more than a tactical advantage—it’s a strategic imperative.
As Bharat Shakti noted, Indian officials view the new Rafale deal as offering “speed, guaranteed delivery, and continuity,” in contrast to the slower, more complex Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft (MRFA) procurement process, which aims to induct 114 jets via open competition.
The Dassault Rafale is a proven combat aircraft. Twin-engine and multi-role, it is equipped with Thales’ RBE2 active electronically scanned array radar and the SPECTRA electronic warfare system, enabling both offensive and defensive operations in heavily contested environments.
With a top speed of Mach 1.8 and a combat range of approximately 1,150 miles, the Rafale is designed for versatility—air superiority, ground strikes, reconnaissance, and nuclear delivery. Its weapons suite includes the Meteor missile (over 100 miles in air-to-air engagements), the SCALP cruise missile for long-range strikes, and the Exocet anti-ship missile.
India’s Rafales are further customized with 13 enhancements, such as cold-start capabilities for Himalayan high altitudes and integration of indigenous weapons like the Astra Mk1 air-to-air missile. These upgrades make the aircraft particularly suited to India’s geography, which demands versatility from deserts to mountains to coastlines.
The IAF currently operates only 31 fighter squadrons against a sanctioned strength of 42. This shortfall, exacerbated by the phase-out of aging MiG-21s and sluggish progress in domestic production, presents a serious operational risk.
Under the 2016 deal, India procured 36 Rafale jets at a cost of €7.87 billion. Delivered between 2019 and 2022, these aircraft are stationed at Ambala (facing Pakistan) and Hasimara (oriented toward China). The proposed 40 new Rafales would add four squadrons to this force, partially bridging the squadron gap and enhancing India’s ability to operate simultaneously on both fronts.
However, this would still leave the IAF short of its optimal strength, reinforcing the importance of balancing foreign procurement with accelerated domestic production.
To fully grasp the significance of the Rafale deal, it’s essential to assess India’s adversaries.
China’s J-20 is a stealth, fifth-generation platform theoretically more advanced than the Rafale. However, its WS-10 engines are still maturing, and the aircraft lacks combat experience. Meanwhile, the J-10C, now deployed by Pakistan, brings a potent mix of radar and missile tech. Still, it remains a single-engine platform with limitations in high-altitude endurance and payload capacity.
In contrast, the Rafale boasts a superior combat record, having been deployed in Libya, Mali, Syria, and Iraq. Its sensor fusion, survivability, and long-range weaponry provide an edge in both air-to-air and air-to-ground roles. Against Pakistan’s JF-17, co-developed with China and known for affordability over capability, the Rafale is decisively more advanced.
India’s choice to bypass the MRFA tender process is controversial. The MRFA program, estimated to be worth over $20 billion, was expected to feature global contenders like Boeing’s F/A-18, Lockheed Martin’s F-21 (a variant of the F-16), Saab’s Gripen, and Russia’s MiG-35.
However, as Bharat Shakti notes, a G2G (government-to-government) agreement offers significant benefits—immediate availability, no delays from vendor selection disputes, and streamlined logistics, especially since India already operates Rafales.
There’s also operational synergy: the Indian Navy recently approved the purchase of 26 Rafale-M jets for its aircraft carriers. This convergence allows for standardized training, maintenance, and spares—a logistical force multiplier.
The Rafale deal raises difficult questions about India’s ambition to be self-reliant in defense manufacturing. The “Make in India” initiative aims to reduce dependence on foreign suppliers and bolster indigenous platforms like the HAL Tejas.
But the Tejas Mk1A has suffered repeated production delays, with only 40 delivered by 2025. HAL has pledged to ramp up production, but the Air Force remains skeptical. At the 2024 Chanakya Dialogues, Air Chief Marshal AP Singh bluntly criticized HAL’s delivery record, stating, “Our frontline squadrons cannot wait for promises.”
This skepticism, while understandable, complicates India’s defense roadmap. Investing in Rafales strengthens short-term capability but risks further sidelining domestic innovation unless parallel investments are made in R&D and infrastructure.
The financial stakes are high. Based on the 2016 benchmark, the new deal for 40 Rafales could exceed $10 billion, especially with inflation and added capabilities. This is a sizable chunk of India’s $75 billion defense budget for 2025-26.
Political fallout is inevitable. Opposition leaders, especially from the Congress party, have previously accused the government of non-transparency in Rafale procurement. Though investigations into the 2016 deal did not reveal wrongdoing, similar scrutiny is expected for this second tranche.
Critics argue that such large-scale foreign buys undermine India’s defense industrial base and strain fiscal priorities. Supporters counter that deterrence cannot wait on bureaucracy and that the cost of underpreparedness is far higher.
India’s defense ties with France have strengthened significantly in recent years. France is now India’s second-largest arms supplier after Russia. Apart from Rafales, it has provided Scorpene-class submarines and advanced missile systems.
In July 2023, during Prime Minister Modi’s Paris visit, the two countries announced the “Horizon 2047” roadmap, laying out long-term defense-industrial cooperation. Dassault Aviation has partnered with Reliance to manufacture Rafale components in India and is reportedly considering setting up a final assembly line.
Such industrial linkages could bridge the gap between foreign procurement and domestic manufacturing, though questions remain about technology transfer and intellectual property rights.
French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu is expected to attend the signing of the naval Rafale-M contract, further solidifying ties. His recent comments about a “shared vision for a free and open Indo-Pacific” suggest France sees India as a central pillar in countering China’s ambitions.
China’s rapid naval and air modernization has compelled India to act. The Rafale’s ability to perform high-altitude missions—as demonstrated in 2020 intercept drills at 55,000 feet—gives India a credible deterrent in the Himalayas.
Pakistan, meanwhile, is expected to respond by deepening military ties with China. This could mean more J-10C deliveries, joint production deals, or even exploring newer platforms like China’s FC-31 stealth fighter.
India’s Rafale acquisition also has ripple effects across Southeast Asia. Indonesia has ordered 42 Rafales, and Malaysia is considering its own fleet. India’s decision reinforces Dassault’s credibility, potentially shifting the market away from American and Russian jets.
Globally, the Rafale is becoming a case study in how mid-tier powers can bridge capability gaps without acquiring fifth-generation fighters. The F-35, though technologically superior, remains expensive and politically sensitive. Meanwhile, Russia’s Su-57 has failed to gain export momentum, and the Su-30, while numerous in India, faces maintenance and upgrade challenges.
India’s Rafale journey echoes its experience with the Mirage 2000. Inducted in the 1980s, the Mirage was instrumental in the 1999 Kargil conflict and the 2019 Balakot airstrike. The Rafale builds on this legacy, offering deep-strike, nuclear, and precision capabilities in one platform.
Pilot training, maintenance infrastructure, and operational experience with the Mirage have eased the Rafale’s integration. With two airbases already functional, the learning curve is minimal—an important consideration in conflict readiness.
But the key question remains: can India reconcile its short-term security imperatives with its long-term vision of self-reliance?
If finalized, the acquisition of 40 additional Rafales will mark a pivotal moment in India’s defense evolution. It strengthens India’s immediate deterrence posture, particularly in the face of a two-front threat. It also cements strategic ties with France, a reliable partner in a multipolar world where alliances are increasingly fluid.
However, it also highlights the persistent challenges of defense self-sufficiency. Indigenous programs like the Tejas and AMCA (Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft) must not be relegated to the sidelines. They are essential not only for sovereignty but for building a sustainable defense ecosystem.
In the skies over Ladakh, the Thar desert, and the Indian Ocean, the Rafale will undoubtedly enhance India’s power projection. But on the ground, the country faces an equally critical task—balancing foreign reliance with homegrown innovation.
