Indonesia
Indonesia’s Presidential Frontrunner: A Defense Chief Evaluation

Indonesian Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto, leading the polls for the upcoming presidential vote, has received mixed reviews from experts for his role in leading the country’s defense and security sectors. However, he has shown seriousness and vision by following a master plan and business plan for the Minimum Essential Forces (MEF) program. The defense budget has been increased by 20% to U.S. $25 billion next year, primarily to procure major weapon systems from abroad.

Since taking office in 2019, Prabowo has traveled to countries like China, France, Russia, Turkey, and the United States to purchase weapons and acquire new military hardware. Under his leadership, the Defense Ministry has also sought to acquire new military hardware, such as patrol boats and submarines, as well as surveillance and territorial defense capabilities. The second presidential debate will discuss Prabowo’s performance as defense czar of Southeast Asia’s largest country.

Indonesia’s defense is making progress towards achieving its 100% minimum essential forces goal by 2024, but it is unlikely to achieve this goal due to insufficient maritime and air defense. Military analyst Beni Sukadis suggests that there is a need for a breakthrough in purchasing defense equipment to match current threats such as fish theft and territorial violations by Chinese vessels. Meanwhile, Indonesian opposition candidate Ganjar Pranowo has criticized a controversial deal to buy used military aircraft, stating that it was not in line with the priority needs of the armed forces.

Prabowo’s spokesman Dahnil Anzar Simanjuntak announced that the defense and finance ministries have postponed the June 2023 decision to buy 12 used Mirage 2000-5 jets from Qatar for U.S. $734.5 million due to fiscal constraints. To fill the gap in air defense during the waiting period, Indonesia plans to retrofit its old fighter-jets. However, some members of the parliamentary defense affairs commission have feared the cost of maintaining these second-hand warplanes and the difficulty in sourcing spare parts. The acquisition of the jets from Qatar, which were offered to Indonesia as a grant in 2009, was rejected by then-Defense Minister Juwono Sudarsono.

Indonesia’s Defense Minister, Prabowo, has been criticized for his decision to purchase Mirage jets, which have 15-20 years of service left and are in high demand. The decision comes amid a new Cold War and regional competition between rival superpowers. Indonesia’s defense minister, Prabowo, has been vocal in advocating for his country’s non-aligned stance amid the US-China competition for primacy in Southeast Asia and tensions related to the disputed South China Sea.

Indonesia’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ) overlaps Beijing’s claims in the South China Sea, leading to diplomatic tensions. Chinese fishing boats and coast guard ships encroach on Indonesia’s EEZ. Indonesia has not taken sides in Russia’s military action in Ukraine until Indonesian President Prabowo suggested an ill-considered plan at the Shangri-La Dialogue defense meeting in Singapore.

The Defense Ministry has touted several achievements under Prabowo’s leadership, including creating a military reserve, improving military education institutions, and meeting 63% of the minimum essential force goal. The ministry has also bought defense equipment, such as frigate warships, submarine rescue vehicles, Rafale fighter jets, Airbus A-400M transport aircraft, and C-J 30J-30 Super Hercules transport aircraft.

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