The one-year anniversary of the October 7, 2023, attacks by Hamas marked a critical moment in Israel’s complex and multifaceted conflict with both Gaza and Lebanon. The attacks, which resulted in the murder of nearly 1,200 Israelis and foreign nationals, and the abduction of 251 people, profoundly shook the Israeli populace and reshaped its government’s priorities. Media coverage of these events has rightly focused on the ongoing violence and human suffering. While attention has largely centered on Israel’s military actions in Gaza, a parallel conflict has been escalating in Lebanon, involving Hezbollah and raising fears of an expanded regional war.
Yet, the situation on the ground in Gaza remains one of bloody stalemate. Despite significant destruction of Hamas infrastructure, Israel has found itself bogged down in a conflict that seems increasingly difficult to resolve. This article seeks to examine the present dynamics of the war in both Gaza and Lebanon, explore the rise of right-wing influence within Israel, and assess the long-term implications for Israeli domestic politics and regional stability.
The attacks of October 7, 2023, were unprecedented in scale and brutality. Hamas militants breached the heavily fortified border between Gaza and Israel, unleashing a series of coordinated assaults on Israeli civilians and military personnel. The casualties were staggering: over 1,200 people were killed, and 251 were taken hostage. These events triggered a deep crisis in Israel, forcing the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to respond with overwhelming force.
In the immediate aftermath, Israel launched a massive military operation against Hamas in Gaza, targeting its leadership, infrastructure, and weapon stockpiles. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) bombarded Gaza from the air and later initiated a ground invasion, aiming to destroy Hamas’ military capabilities. However, as of now, the situation in Gaza has reached a violent impasse. Despite the immense destruction inflicted upon Hamas and the reported death of thousands of its fighters, the group continues to pose a significant threat.
According to the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry, the death toll in Gaza has now surpassed 42,000. The relentless Israeli airstrikes, combined with a full blockade, have decimated infrastructure and deepened the humanitarian crisis. Still, the group remains operational, as evidenced by renewed paramilitary activities in Jabalia, a district near Gaza City that was thought to be under the control of the IDF.
In addition to its operations in Gaza, Israel has been conducting military actions in Lebanon. These began as aerial bombings but have since expanded to a ground operation targeting Hezbollah, a militant organization with strong ties to Iran. Hezbollah’s involvement raises the stakes considerably for Israel, as it brings into play another highly organized and dangerous foe.
Hezbollah has long been a key player in Lebanon, with a paramilitary wing that rivals the Lebanese army in terms of strength and influence. The group’s missile and rocket arsenal, many supplied by Iran, presents a constant threat to Israel’s northern cities. Israeli airstrikes have targeted Hezbollah positions in southern and eastern Lebanon, as well as in the capital, Beirut. But even with these efforts, the threat of retaliation by Hezbollah continues to loom large, further complicating Israel’s strategic calculus.
One of the most significant political impacts of the October 7 attacks and the subsequent military campaigns has been the shift in Israeli public opinion. Before the conflict, Netanyahu faced intense pressure due to his controversial judicial reforms and widespread protests. The opposition, fueled by concerns over the future of Israel’s democratic institutions, had been mounting for months. Demonstrations drew tens of thousands of Israelis into the streets, and the prime minister’s popularity had plummeted.
However, the onset of the war has changed the political landscape. As Israel’s military operations intensified, particularly the expansion into Lebanon, Netanyahu’s right-wing Likud party experienced a surge in public support. By the end of September 2024, polling suggested that Likud would secure more seats than any other party if an election were held. This newfound popularity is partly attributed to the perception that Netanyahu is leading a strong response to the threats Israel faces on multiple fronts.
The fate of the hostages taken by Hamas remains a central issue. For months, the Israeli public has been divided over the government’s handling of negotiations for their release. A general strike in early September 2024 highlighted the deep frustration felt by many Israelis, as well as the growing pressure on the government to secure a deal. While Netanyahu has weathered much of this opposition, his political survival now hinges on the outcome of the military campaigns and the handling of the hostage situation.
A critical and often underappreciated factor in Israel’s current political landscape is the rise of Messianic Judaism, a movement that blends ultra-orthodox religious beliefs with hardline nationalism. The influence of Messianic Judaism has been steadily growing, and it is playing a significant role in shaping both Israeli domestic policy and its approach to the conflict with the Palestinians.
Messianic Jews envision a pure Jewish state, one in which religious laws play a dominant role. A central component of their ideology is the desire to rebuild the Temple of Solomon, a structure that once stood on the site where the Al-Aqsa Mosque, Islam’s third-holiest site, now resides. This ambition has profound implications for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, as any attempt to rebuild the Temple would provoke widespread outrage in the Muslim world and could spark a broader regional war.
The rise of Messianic Judaism is also reflected in Israel’s military. A significant number of soldiers are drawn from religious military schools, and many come from deeply religious families. One of the most active units in the Gaza conflict, the Netzah Yehuda battalion, is composed primarily of religious Zionist soldiers. This infusion of religious nationalism into the military adds another layer of complexity to Israel’s decision-making process, particularly in terms of how the war in Gaza is prosecuted.
The far-right factions within Netanyahu’s governing coalition have become increasingly influential, pushing for more aggressive policies toward the Palestinians. These factions, heavily influenced by Messianic Judaism, view the current conflict as an opportunity to reshape Israel’s future. As The Economist noted in an article published in August 2024, hardliners within Netanyahu’s government seek to annex the West Bank, dismantle the Palestinian Authority, and permanently reoccupy Gaza. Their long-term vision involves the creation of a Jewish state in which Palestinians play little or no role.
Israel’s current political trajectory has deep historical roots. There have been three distinct periods in which the country has moved to the right: after the Yom Kippur War in 1973, following the influx of Soviet immigrants in the 1990s, and in the wake of the second intifada in the early 2000s. Each of these shifts brought Israel further away from the idea of a two-state solution and toward a more hardline approach to the Palestinian issue.
Since 2010, Israel has experienced relative political stability, with the IDF maintaining control over Gaza and the West Bank, and the situation in Lebanon largely contained. However, the attacks of October 7, 2023, shattered this status quo. The Israeli public is now more hawkish than it has been in decades, and this shift is reflected in the policies of the Netanyahu government.
As the conflict drags on, Netanyahu’s ability to maintain political stability will depend on several factors. Chief among them is the outcome of the military campaigns in Gaza and Lebanon, as well as the resolution of the hostage crisis. But another important factor is the growing divide within Israeli society between secular and religious Israelis. The country’s secular elite, long a stabilizing force in Israeli politics, is increasingly emigrating, contributing to a “brain drain” that is weakening the influence of moderate voices.
As the conflict between Israel and Hamas grinds on, it has become clear that neither side is capable of achieving a decisive victory. While Hamas has suffered severe losses, it remains resilient, continuing to launch rocket attacks and organize resistance within Gaza. On the other hand, Israel’s overwhelming military power has not been able to fully dismantle Hamas or neutralize the threat posed by Hezbollah in Lebanon.
In many ways, the war has devolved into a violent stalemate, with no clear end in sight. The human toll, particularly among Palestinian civilians, is staggering, and the destruction of Gaza’s infrastructure has created a humanitarian crisis of epic proportions. Yet, there is little indication that either side is willing to negotiate for peace.
For Netanyahu, the challenge will be to maintain public support in the face of a prolonged and bloody conflict. While his government has so far succeeded in rallying the Israeli people around the military campaign, the longer the war drags on, the more difficult it will be to sustain this support. In the absence of a clear military victory, Netanyahu’s political future may be more precarious than current polling suggests.
The war in Gaza and Lebanon is not just a military conflict; it is also a struggle for the future of Israel. The rise of Messianic Judaism and the hardening of right-wing attitudes within Israeli society suggest that any future resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will be far more difficult to achieve than in the past. As the conflict enters its second year, the path to peace appears more elusive than ever.
