In a decisive moment for Ukraine’s ongoing conflict with Russia, President Volodymyr Zelensky is set to unveil a new “Victory Plan” during his meeting with U.S. President Joe Biden. Kyiv is looking to secure significant backing from Biden before he potentially exits the White House in 2025.
Zelensky’s Victory Plan is poised to become the cornerstone of Ukraine’s strategy to end the war. Designed as a “bridge” toward halting the violence, the plan is shrouded in secrecy, with only hints about its core components: further military and financial assistance, along with concrete future security guarantees. The Ukrainian leader is rallying global support, arguing that the war could end sooner than expected if the West strengthens Ukraine’s position, forcing Russia’s President Vladimir Putin into negotiations.
However, with Biden’s time in office winding down and the prospect of Donald Trump returning to power, Zelensky faces growing urgency. Kyiv officials have made it clear that they want Biden to “make history” by providing decisive support in the final months of his presidency.
Zelensky’s Diplomatic Blitz
President Zelensky has launched an intense diplomatic campaign in New York, taking advantage of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) as a platform to rally international leaders. He addressed a debate on UN reform on Monday, spoke at the Security Council on Tuesday, and is delivering a speech to the General Assembly on Wednesday. Between these engagements, Zelensky has been meeting with world leaders and U.S. politicians, all while conducting a media blitz to promote his plan.
On Monday, Zelensky visited an ammunition factory in Scranton, Pennsylvania—President Biden’s hometown—that produces artillery shells for Ukrainian forces. The visit was a symbolic gesture, aligning Zelensky’s plea for continued military support with Biden’s personal and political background.
Zelensky has been clear that time is of the essence. In an interview with The New Yorker, he emphasized the necessity of securing the Victory Plan by the end of 2023, stating, “This plan is designed, first and foremost, with Biden’s support in mind.” Although Biden has been one of Ukraine’s most steadfast allies, securing long-term support as the U.S. election approaches remains a challenge.
The Trump Factor
Former U.S. President Donald Trump, the Republican frontrunner for the 2024 election, has long been skeptical of the U.S. providing extensive aid to Ukraine. At a campaign rally on Monday, Trump dismissed Zelensky’s diplomatic skills, mockingly calling him “the greatest salesman in history” for repeatedly securing billions of dollars in U.S. aid. Trump has also reiterated his stance that he would broker a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine within 24 hours of returning to the White House, a position that alarms Kyiv.
Ukrainian officials fear that a Trump presidency could force them into making territorial concessions and accepting a settlement on unfavorable terms. Trump’s “deal” rhetoric, coupled with his criticism of U.S. spending on Ukraine, raises concerns that Ukraine could lose parts of its territory permanently under such a scenario.
Zelensky’s current diplomatic push is, therefore, a preemptive strike against the possibility of waning U.S. support should Trump or any other skeptical candidate win in 2024. Much now hinges on Biden’s response to Zelensky’s proposal and whether Congress, including Republican lawmakers, will continue to endorse significant financial and military aid.
Victory Plan: A Blueprint for Peace or War?
While the exact details of Zelensky’s Victory Plan remain classified, sources close to the Ukrainian government suggest it will emphasize several key military and strategic initiatives aimed at turning the tide of the war in Ukraine’s favor.
One military analyst, Mykhailo Samus, director of the New Geopolitics Research Network, speculates that the plan will involve securing permission from the West to use long-range missiles capable of hitting targets deep inside Russian territory, particularly military infrastructure within a 300km range. Such strikes could severely hinder Russia’s ongoing operations in the Donbas and neutralize threats from Russian military bases across the border.
So far, Western nations have denied Ukraine the ability to use long-range missiles against targets in Russia. However, Ukraine has been using attack drones to strike Russian ammunition depots and military installations, causing significant damage. Missiles, however, would offer greater precision and the ability to destroy more heavily fortified targets.
Olga Rudenko, editor in chief of the Kyiv Independent, also expects that the Victory Plan will include further requests for financial aid, a necessity for keeping Ukraine’s war effort sustainable. In addition, she believes that Ukraine’s recent cross-border advances into Russia’s Kursk region, a surprise development in the war, will play a central role in the plan’s military strategy.
NATO: Ukraine’s Security Guarantee
A cornerstone of Ukraine’s post-war vision remains its desire to join the NATO military alliance, a goal that has been a source of tension between Kyiv and Moscow for years. Zelensky’s team has made it clear that Ukraine’s NATO ambitions will be an integral part of the Victory Plan.
“Ukraine’s invitation to NATO is part of the victory plan,” confirmed Andriy Yermak, head of the Ukrainian presidential office. NATO membership would provide Ukraine with the long-term security guarantees it has sought since Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea and the subsequent invasion in 2022. However, several NATO members remain hesitant to formally extend membership to Ukraine while it is still embroiled in active conflict with Russia.
Territorial Concessions: A Sticking Point
One of the thorniest issues for any potential peace plan is the question of territorial concessions. Some Western diplomats have expressed skepticism that Zelensky’s Victory Plan will succeed in bringing Russia to the negotiating table. Moscow continues to hold significant portions of Ukrainian territory, including Crimea and parts of the Donbas region.
Czech President Petr Pavel, a strong advocate for Ukraine, recently speculated that some areas of Ukraine might remain “temporarily” occupied by Russia for years to come. Yet, for many Ukrainians, the idea of conceding any territory to Russia, even temporarily, is unthinkable. Olga Rudenko acknowledges that while the discussion may be happening behind closed doors, it remains an emotional and sensitive topic for the Ukrainian public.
“It’s not that Ukrainians are greedy about the territory,” Rudenko explains. “We can’t leave our people there, under Russian control, and sentence them to those horrors,” she adds, alluding to widespread reports of Russian war crimes in occupied regions.
For Ukrainians like Dmytro, a 31-year-old soldier recovering from severe burns after being hit by a Russian drone, the notion of a truce is particularly painful. “We will not surrender our territories, for which so many people have fallen,” he told the BBC in Kyiv. “If we ended the war at this stage, what were we fighting for then? What for did all our men, our comrades die for?”
Dmytro’s sentiments mirror those of many in Ukraine who view any ceasefire as merely giving Russia time to regroup and launch future attacks. Zelensky, too, has warned against the dangers of a “frozen” conflict, which could lead to a protracted and unresolved war.
While Biden’s support is crucial to Zelensky’s Victory Plan, the U.S. Congress will also play a pivotal role in determining the extent of future aid to Ukraine. Both Republicans and Democrats have expressed support for Ukraine, but there is growing concern within the U.S. over the financial costs of continued military assistance. Zelensky’s Victory Plan will be presented not only to Biden but also to key members of Congress, including those skeptical of further financial aid.
On the international stage, Zelensky is seeking to secure backing from European leaders as well. He has met with French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, and UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, all of whom have been strong supporters of Ukraine’s war effort. However, the longer the war drags on, the more difficult it may become for Zelensky to maintain such unwavering support, particularly as domestic pressures mount in these countries.
Zelensky’s diplomatic offensive and the presentation of his Victory Plan mark a critical moment in the war between Ukraine and Russia. The stakes are high: securing U.S. and international support could bolster Ukraine’s chances of pushing back Russian forces and eventually bringing Moscow to the negotiating table. However, with the U.S. election on the horizon and the possibility of a Trump presidency, the future of Western aid to Ukraine remains uncertain.
As Ukraine’s military continues its fight on the front lines, Zelensky is making a calculated gamble on the international stage. Whether the Victory Plan will be the catalyst for peace or simply another chapter in the ongoing conflict will depend on the actions of President Biden, Congress, and world leaders in the coming months.
