Taiwan’s decision to expand its submarine fleet is a strategic move to counter China’s growing military threat, despite facing significant financial, logistical, and geopolitical challenges. This bold initiative underlines Taiwan’s commitment to bolstering its defense capabilities in the face of increasing tensions in the Asia-Pacific region.
This month, reports from the South China Morning Post (SCMP) revealed that Taiwan has allocated a substantial budget to build seven additional submarines by 2038. The initiative aims to deter potential aggression from China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA). Approved by Taiwan’s cabinet and awaiting legislative review, this decision has sparked intense debate among analysts over its timing and fiscal prudence.
The concerns are heightened given that the prototype submarine, Hai Kun, is still undergoing testing. The project’s hefty price tag of NTD 284 billion (US$8.88 billion) stands in stark contrast to the prototype’s cost of NTD 26 billion (US$806 million), raising questions about the urgency to expand the fleet without finalized sea trial results.
While debates over fiscal prudence continue, experts emphasize the critical role that advanced submarines could play in Taiwan’s defense strategy. According to a January 2023 report by Mark Cancian and other analysts for the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), submarines are essential for penetrating China’s defensive zones. They could target Chinese amphibious ships and supply convoys, potentially disrupting PLA logistics and reducing the effectiveness of any invasion force.
Cancian and his colleagues argue that submarines operating in the confined and shallow waters of the Taiwan Strait can exploit their stealth capabilities to avoid detection by China’s anti-submarine warfare assets. This ability makes them a vital asymmetric tool in Taiwan’s defense strategy, capable of inflicting significant damage on an invading fleet. However, while submarines alone may not suffice to repel a full-scale invasion, they could play a crucial role in delaying and complicating the PLA’s efforts. This delay would provide Taiwan and its allies, including the United States, with more time to respond and potentially prevent Chinese forces from establishing a sustainable beachhead.
The strategic value of Taiwan’s submarine program extends beyond the tactical and operational realms. In a September 2023 Forbes article, David Axe noted that the Hai Kun and its future sister submarines, alongside bombers, are vital to repelling a potential invasion and could sink numerous Chinese vessels. These submarines not only provide Taiwan with tactical and operational options but also serve a psychological and political function.
Collin Koh, writing in a February 2024 Newsweek article, points out that the public unveiling of Hai Kun was designed to reassure the Taiwanese public that the project is progressing as planned and that the government remains committed to national defense. The unveiling also serves as a deterrent by projecting uncertainty to China about the submarines’ capabilities, thereby complicating Beijing’s strategic calculations.
Despite the ambitious nature of Taiwan’s submarine program, numerous challenges lie ahead. John Dotson, in a June 2023 article for the Global Taiwan Institute (GTI), highlights the difficulties associated with constructing eight submarines. Dotson notes that it remains uncertain how long it will take for Taiwan’s current naval shipbuilding facilities to complete all the vessels, given the competition for production capacity and budget constraints, which also include the need to build surface ships locally.
Another significant challenge is training and certifying crews for a substantially larger Taiwanese submarine fleet. The establishment of protocols for managing overlapping patrol areas with allied and regional nations during both peacetime and wartime adds to the complexity of operational integration. Dotson argues that Taiwan’s most significant challenge in submarine operations is integrating these assets into its overall defense strategy.
He suggests that Taiwan might consider various operational models, such as Nazi Germany’s “wolfpacks,” the US Navy’s controversial 1980s “Maritime Strategy,” or a passive submarine “fleet in being,” to disrupt PLA plans for a blockade or invasion. These models could provide Taiwan with a strategic framework to enhance its defensive capabilities and complicate Chinese military planning.
Taiwan’s ambitious plans for its submarine fleet must be seen within the broader context of its naval force development strategy. The island faces the dual challenge of balancing asymmetric strategies to counter China’s unconventional tactics while simultaneously preparing for conventional military confrontations. In January 2024, Asia Times highlighted that Taiwan’s ongoing naval construction projects could signal a struggle in defining its naval force.
The challenge arises from the need to build a naval force capable of both countering China’s gray zone tactics—activities that fall below the threshold of outright military conflict—and defending against a full-scale invasion. Taiwan’s emphasis on developing a highly visible conventional naval force to counter China’s unconventional tactics does not adequately address the significant military advantage held by Beijing.
Taiwan’s strategy of diversifying its force design and procurement to handle both conventional and asymmetric warfare might leave it vulnerable. For instance, while new light frigates and corvettes could effectively deal with China’s frequent surface and underwater incursions into Taiwanese waters, a full embrace of asymmetric warfare could make submarines the centerpiece of Taiwan’s naval strategy.
Taiwan’s efforts to modernize and expand its submarine fleet are further complicated by China’s political influence operations. The success of Taiwan’s Indigenous Defense Submarine (IDS) program is closely tied to sustained political and financial support, especially since it is strongly associated with former President Tsai Ing-wen and her Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).
In a January 2021 article in Strategic Comments, it was noted that the IDS program’s continuity relies on overcoming domestic political challenges and external pressures. China has long sought to sway public opinion in Taiwan to influence political outcomes favorable to its interests. This was evident during Taiwan’s January 2024 presidential elections, where China undertook a sophisticated disinformation campaign to undermine political support for Taiwan’s military modernization efforts, particularly its submarine program.
A February 2024 article by Alan Yu and others for the Center for American Progress (CAP) elaborates on China’s attempts to influence the election results using artificial intelligence-driven disinformation campaigns. These efforts were designed to manipulate public opinion and erode political support for Taiwan’s military modernization. Despite these tactics, Taiwan’s robust countermeasures, including legislative actions and public awareness campaigns, have mitigated the impact of China’s influence operations to some extent.
Taiwan’s bold decision to expand its submarine fleet represents a high-stakes gamble aimed at countering China’s growing military threat. While the program faces significant financial, logistical, and geopolitical challenges, it underscores Taiwan’s commitment to enhancing its defense capabilities in the face of increasing regional tensions. The strategic value of advanced submarines, coupled with their psychological and political impact, makes them a crucial component of Taiwan’s asymmetric defense strategy.
As Taiwan navigates the complexities of this ambitious undertaking, it must balance the need for fiscal discipline with the imperatives of national security. The integration of submarines into a broader defense strategy, coupled with effective political and public communication, will be essential in ensuring the success of this high-stakes gamble. Ultimately, Taiwan’s ability to deter aggression and maintain stability in the Asia-Pacific region will depend on its continued commitment to strengthening its defense capabilities and the resilience of its political institutions in the face of external pressures.
